nsrobins

Hope you enjoyed your sabbatical. Some storms in E TX today and a more robust risk in KS Thurs/Fri.

Colorado is doing it again - incredible! Are my eyes playing tricks on me or is that cell you're on now (22Z) anticyclonic?

A sort of 'rest day' then - well deserved! I know you're not in northeast NE, but the return has been impressive there this afternoon with 80/67 in the Norfolk region just west of the loose boundary. I suspect that there will be some interesting weather in the NE corner of NE n the next few hours.

Great result again - CO is really delivering this year. I'm sure I saw both you and Paul Kinghtley on the StormScapeLive stream last night. Is Paul out there? More active chasing this evening.

Stream down but these guys are parked behind them now: https://tvnweather.com/live/chasers/847783520

19.49Z That vehicle in front of you on the dirt track is the StormScapeLive team. Those cells further south have perhaps more potential with a move into cleaner air?

Chaser convergence aside the formation of supercells is somewhat conditional and will rely on regions of clearing in the current blanket. Having said that WV indicates one of the troughs swinging in from the mountains should arrive on cue and overriding any clear slots that heat and destabilise will easily promote towers. Note to self - chase next year late May early June as I'd love to see a classic upslope day.

Absolutely delighted you got on on the best play yesterday. I couldn't post until much later than I normally do but could see the KS target was too occluded to produce and the CO upslope was the choice and I was relieved to see you head SW at 23z

Not the best of days forecast-wise yesterday. The parameters were in place for tornadic supercells but for some reason the rotation in the main was only quite broad, shallow and meagre. No time to analyse but may have a look in more detail to learn.

https://tvnweather.com/live/chasers/847783520 On middle cell SE Denver. Looks decent.

Not quite going to plan it has to be said. Primary target slow to fire but should produce before dark. But watch out central KS - if anything breaks the cap there it could explode.

You might know where they are, but are you able to do 95mph to just catch them up (Elk City LOL)

I like Chugwater because 1 it's close to my adjusted target and 2 I like the name! Clear defined LP low based super cells in an amazing landscape - what could be better?

UPSLOPE! This should go MDT for both hail and tornados IMO. The RAP has some of the best superimposed EHI and SRH values so far this season, with up to 60kns of speed shear already over the region at 21Z. Somewhere between Sterling CO and Osallala NE would be my primary target for lunch reccy Update: 9Z models. Maybe further west towards Greeley CO required where initiation likely. The veering profile with height is amazing on the top NE corner of CO later but the LLJ is maximised SW NE. Recurrent risk next three days in same area.

Are you guys mobile yet today? The GPS is not showing any movement yet. Some towers popping now on the ND/SD line and also down in SW SD - the two areas already highlighted. Visibility looks amazing today (maybe 80 miles plus on flat terrain) so no problem spotting the initiation.

14Z RAP and HRRR: I like the WF play but that is way up in ND. I also like the area just east of the lee low/trough pretty much dead centre SD (Murdo, SD) at 22Z where HRRR plops a nice lone sup into a sheared environment. Will it be enough though? The south/SW SD region would be better for tomorrow as others have mentioned.

Thanks Nick. The area between Sturgis and Vale, SD again looks favoured this afternoon with the combination of moisture and shear maximised here, especially from 22Z. Wide open panoramas make for great viewing, but dirt roads likely.

The number of hailstones? Now that would be something

There's a patch of grass and shrubs just to your right just now and GPS has you in it. What are you guys doing in the bushes LOL?

I should add that there are also a few storms now moving east from SE WY towards the NE line which I guess the team may be close to.

Atmosphere destabilising in vicinity of lee trough now far W NE/SW SD as evident by recent towering Cu field. The warm sector should be suitably juicy to support super cell structures I would think dropping through the Black Hills in the next three hours.

Oh yes - well spotted

Potential 'sleeper' day creeping in for Weds. A tweak in shear profiles and we could have a MDT tornado risk for E KS/W CO given current progs.

I wouldn't rule out a brief tornado Paul - if moisture of 50F plus can return to NE KS, wind profiles will promote mesogenesis on any storm rolling down off the high terrain. Then another leg North Monday and he Black Hills west of Rapid City still look decent for Monday.

Yep a relatively early shift North for risk Mon and Tues. Details will change but a quick look at GFS suggests Rapid City, SD may be North enough to latch on to predicted activity. There is one huge advantage though - you will leave the floods and rain behind and be in somewhat clearer, crisper conditions in theory.