nsrobins

I'm putting this out there for discussion and opinion. I'm at the flight booking stage for my chase this year and can't find any direct flights to DFW for anything less than £750, much more than usual. Is anyone else having the same problems and if you've found anything cheaper can you forward the details? Thanks in advance.

38 confirmed tornado reports with unfortunately one fatality. However awesome these phenomena are and the enthusiasm we inject into understanding and pursuing them, one must always respect the impact they occasionally have on us and any loss of life is a tragedy.

Dangerous situation this evening requiring now casting with storm vectors 45mph to the ENE. Extreme low level helicity on the hodos in association with a very swift LLJ at around 800mb. Could be a classic Feb Dixie evening.

Quite a significant risk of tornados this afternoon and evening across the far South of Dixie alley. Instability typically limited at this time of year but more than made up by high-end vorticity and deviant vertical flow.

And just incase we don't always acknowledge the human impact of these storms: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-35173624

And Oxford right in the path of new cell - must be a tor on the ground looking at velocities. Getting dark now. A very dangerous few hours for N MS and W TN

If I heard right there is a tornado EMERGENCY for counties in far NE MS. Very rare. Certainly the vectors on that cell North of Oxford are triple figures gate to gate. Brett Adair is on stream at a location with extensive damage 2 miles S of Holly Springs.

Upgrade to MDT risk not a surprise. Also PSWO issued. Once the current convection clears from AR I expect rapid rotating cell development in areas already mentioned - from say 19Z. Obviously daylight is limited but this is unlikely to hinder the severity and discretion of cells so a nighttime tornado risk continues after dark.

Some of the hodos for W TN are very impressive indeed. A quick stab and I'd say a line Jackson TN to Florence AL for max tornado potential. Some discrete cells too so long track possible. Might have to excuse myself from the do early tonight

For anyone who is looking for a distraction from the potentially volatile works Christmas do, an impressive set-up for December threatens a Dixie tornado day Weds. All key ingredients in place for some significant tornados especially if early crud clears in time.

That's me done. Potential worst case scenario for several hours as darkness falls - nocturnal tornados. If you've ever experienced good visibility, flat terrain daylight chasing, you can imagine what night-time can bring in rain and hail and hilly terrain. Not for the faint hearted it has to be said. Several towns currently under the gun.

Indeed. Multiple tor warned storms now. Cell near Liberal, KS decent markers. Kelley Williamson near Claude, TX - large funnel. Bryce Kintigh - Liberal, KS. Large funnel - nearly on the ground.

Matt McCune - NW KS. Tor on the ground.

High risk of tornadoes next few hours as LLJ cranks up. Wall cloud on cell near Garden City, KS. Moderate vectors from base up (J&F McKinney, TVN)

Another late season Red River special risk Monday evening with all severe possible as pre-trough super cells move into a corridor of very looped hodographs. My old favourite Altus to Woodward, OK in the firing line.

Edited title as risk area now shifted North.

Projected unseasonably strong mid-level jet and closed low pushing across above region could generate severe weather including tornados in above area. Instability is questionable yes but any low-topped super cells will encounter a small corridor of frankly astonishing directional shear in the central MO area (18Z NAM) which will easily do the job. These late Autumn cold-uppers setups can be quite potent so worth keeping an eye on this one. Also it's pretty much exactly half way between chasing trips so I'm officially in the 2016 chase planning stage 👌ðŸ»ðŸ¤“

Conditions quite conducive for a few tornados this afternoon in above region. Some impressive bouyancy for November - watch just issued.

http://kdvr.com/on-air/live-streaming/

Quite like the current surface obs and projected parameters into this evening in the area NE of Denver. Some impressive directional shear in the lee of a CVZ-like surface low may well get some supercells going should anything initiate. HRRR has a discrete cell between Limon and Brush at 23Z but I prefer the area around the I14 at Raymer for a bullseye. Might be worth a look should any chasers take it on.

A potential in far E NE this evening for the odd strong tornado - might be worth monitoring as an alternative to Sat night TV 😉 If I was to pin a likely location for a tornado or two if say Lincoln to Nebraska City, NE area.

Not much to add in postscript. It has been the theme of this season - set-ups that look classic for tornadic supercells end up delivering a mush-fest of wind and hail. The instability was not in question here, but the directional shear was marginal and cells needed to tap into a boundary to utilise any additional shear was on offer and it didn't happen. At one point a chaser drove past a field of wind turbines and said 'they should turn those on to get these things spinning'. Still, another notch in the 'tornadic totum pole' of experience lol.

Quality HD stream from Brett Adair just now. Cell looks very likely.

Cape values are already 4.5-5K in the region. The gun is primed and the trigger is about to be released - insane instability will be unleashed very shortly as the last of the CIN erodes. I like the fact SPC have now adjusted back North as per my previous thoughts. Surface obs show the OFB fairly nicely - more of a front actually looking at dps from SW to NE across IL. Any cell riding this boundary ESEwards will tap into locally enhanced helicity that threatens a strong tornado. Later this evening the wind threat takes over and a damaging derecho could well develop.

That will be 21.30 BST. All charts and official data is normally quoted in universal or Zulu time (GMT). I see skies have cleared nicely now in the target zone and heating is taking place. Given such a rich unstable environment initiation will occur in about three hours, although some cells have already developed in N MO and these will drift east slowly.