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GRHinPorts

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Everything posted by GRHinPorts

  1. I think the current ongoing situation is one we are going to remember for the rest of our days no doubt....but within the memories I think will be attached this Spring's weather as so often memories do with the weather. Certainly this is the best Spring I have ever experienced since l moved here in 1997. All 3 months have held up exceptionally well where as many other years one of the 3 months has stood out as good but one of the others has let it down (see 2018, 2012, 2008, 2007, 2003, 1998 as examples).
  2. I have a very good memory of Summer 1987 (well from July 3rd to August 8th) as I was 16 at the time and on holiday in the UK as I then lived in Australia. The combination of being in a foreign country, at a formative age has meant things like the weather have stuck in my head. My main memory is of arriving on the second Friday of the Wimbledon Championships at the start of a fantastic 4 day heatwave in which temps reached 30 degrees widely. This of course took in the Mens Final Day where Aussie Pat Cash won his only Grand Slam Championship. My family all went to the Henley Regatta that day where it was meltingly hot. The rest of the time the weather was for more average. Lots of dull cloudy weather with max temps between 19 and 22 C. Not too much rain except for a spell we had in the Lake District and also a weekend coach trip we made to Paris (for £50 no less) on the 16th/17th where there were some regular terrific downpours. Around the start of August there was a very cool spell so much that where I was staying in Reading I needed to put the electric blanket on at night which coming from Australia I felt was crazy.
  3. Wow! Im really surprised to see how low the Manchester Summer Index is in your signature. I view anything as under 200 as being poor as indeed I think all the summers 2007-2012 were. Down here on the south coast I would think our index would be significantly higher. Although it is currently rather poor I would say up to the half way point this Summer has to certainly be seen as above average.
  4. Using the BBC's figures for Pershore I get a final CET figure of 17.3. Will be interesting to see how this goes as a predictor from the 10 day out mark.
  5. Very possible we could clear 16.1 for the month now (will depend on what the last 5 days of June bring us - models in FI are suggesting a cooler more average outlook) and if we do that by my reckoning that will make this the warmest June since 1976!
  6. Roger J Smith - Further to your analysis of Summers following warm May's. Could you do this with regards to years 1998 & 2008? Both had rubbish summers after warm and sunny May's. Indeed seems to be a bit of a curse for years ending in 8 when you throw in 1978 and 1918. My own analysis of this has looked at all the years since 1900 (dont trust the pre 20th century warm figures) with 13+ CET for May and throwing in one exception. They are as follows: 1918, 1919, 1947, 1952, 1964, 1970, 1989,1992, 1998, 2008. I would also like to throw in 1911 which had a May CET of 12.9 Of these the Summer that follows is a bit of a mixed bag but three patterns seem to emerge. Either 1. The summer that follows is abysmal (eg. 1919, 1964, and all the years ending in an 8 OR 2. The summer continues into an exceptional June then crashes in July August (1970, 1992) OR 3. The summer is a true record breaker (1947, 1989 and 1911). We shall see what follows this year but I think its all noticeable that many of the exceptional summers (17+ CET across the summer) of the 20th century did have above average Mays. Really only 1983 goes against this.
  7. I do think such comments almost invite 3 below average Summer months...whenever the weather in Britain becomes a talking point you can guarantee it will change. Anyway I think its very possible now the CET could just scrape into the 13s which would be the first time since 2008.
  8. Something like this has been close to how I feel 2017 is going to pan out for quite some while based purely on the 1997 & 2007 factor. (Ok we all know the last number in the year has no effect in determining the weather....and yet...rinse and repeat of those earlier two years seems so likely? why is that?). Anyway the irony is you posted this 2 days before Christmas and so far the script has followed your prediction with only minor variations. I look forward to this April putting 2007 and 2011 in the shade and can't quite believe it will do that but I'm pretty certain like you that from mid May the Atlantic will turn up and hang around until late July.
  9. Whats really interesting is how little June has "warmed up" over the years. Not sure why there would be any reason for that. Another factor to consider with September is that the the day length is much shorter. I remember being struck a few years back when after asking on here and finding out that the CET mean for June 1st-21st is almost exactly the same as as September 1st- 21st. I often think the best way to think of a summer is to look at the period known as astronomical summer (June 21-September 21) as that first 3 weeks of June often feels like it is a separate season to that what follows where as the first three weeks of September often feel an extension of summer.
  10. Looked touch and go there for a while but it would seem so. Possible date record however?
  11. That outlook is a masterpiece in saying absolutely nothing of any significance whilst at the same time giving the impression of being of great importance. Well done on whoever composed it even if I still have absolutely no idea as to how the Met Office thinks the Summer will pan out.
  12. It will be very exciting if those models come off for the 13th of June...since its the only day in the whole of meteorological Summer that has never NEVER recorded a maximum temperature of above 30C anywhere in the UK. Which is pretty freaky when you think that there are plenty of days in both May and September that have reached this mark.
  13. Only once since 1846 has June managed to reach the 17 mark on the CET. That was the record breaking 1976. Could 2014 go beyond this level? Is it even possible for such figures to be recorded in June with modern (aka accurate) measuring equipment? Will the 13th of June ever see 30C reached as a maximum? All this to be answered (or not) in the coming month.
  14. That Netweather forecast has a sub 200 Manchester Summer Index written all over it.
  15. I'll play this month. Put me in for 11.6. Just below the 1981-2010 averages.
  16. I quite agree. The 61-90 average really has little relevance to todays temps. At the very least the 71-2000 averages should be used.
  17. I refined my calculation this morning to look at just since 1989...(i.e only 25 years which weakens the statistical validity yet further)...and the inverse correlation between Spring CET and the Manchester Summer Index becomes even stronger. Since 1989 the average Spring CET has been 9.14. Those Springs below this mark average have a Summer Index Average of 240. Those Springs above this mark average have a Summer Index Average of 203. Further more the warmth of the Spring would probably push 2005 (Spring CET 9.17, Summer Index 224) into the below average half worsening the upper halfs Summer Index average yet further. But of course we will have to wait to see yet how Summer 2014 turns out.
  18. The relevance of the above in relation to Summer 2014 is just that the CET for this Spring is surely to be above the 8.72 average (CET since 1971) so the odds to me seem to point to a below average Summer.
  19. This evening I have been looking to see if there is any correlation between warmth/cold in the Spring and the quality of the following Summer. I just looked at the years 1971-2013 (i.e the years of my life) so the sample size maybe two small for any serious conclusions to be drawn. The first thing I found in doing is this that both Spring and Summer have become progressively warmer (as per the CET) - in particular since 1989. However whilst cooler Summers (as per the CET) have become relatively unusual its the increase in Spring temps that is really striking. Since 1989 there have been 16 Springs above average by half a degree and 10 of these were over 1 degree above average across the Season. Only 2 years since 1989 have produced Springs 1 degree below average. By comparison there have only been 10 Summers since 1989 that were above average by half a degree and only 3 that were 1 degree above average. Only two Summers since 1989 though were even a modest half a degree below average. This in spite of all the poor run of Summers we all felt we endured between 2007-2012. Obviously this poorness or quality of a Summer goes beyond mere CET as so often in the Summer we can often get wet mild muggy weather where high mimimums push up the CET but sunshine and high maximas are in short supply (June 2007 and August 2004 immediately come to mind). So to get around this problem I decided to compare Spring CET with the Manchester Summer Index for the following Summer. Whilst I hesitate to say there is any genuine link it is striking how often cold Springs produced a high Manchester Summer Index (1975, 1983, 1984, 1996 and 2013 being striking examples) and more relevantly how warm Springs are often followed by a low Manchester Summer Index (1998, 2000, 2004, and all of 2007-2012). Of course there were years where it worked the other way but looking at the average for the 43 years the Spring CET is 8.72 and the Manchester Summer Index is 215. However averaging the Summer Index for all Spring CETs under 8.72 gives a figure of 221.53. Where as averaging the Summer Index for all Spring CETs above 8.72 gives just a figure of 209.83.
  20. Thanks WH for at least finding a warm sunny April which didnt lead to a 3 month summer wipe out! July 1901 had a CET of 18.0! Although the August that followed looks fairly dismal.
  21. Thats my worry at the moment too. Oh well there is nothing that can be done about it so might as well enjoy the blue skies while they last.
  22. Thanks for the decent analysis Supercell 89. Sounds like the whole thing is on a knife edge. The poorer Summers you mention above seem to be dominated by a rather boring westerly cool cloudy pattern than weeks and weeks of rain. Thinking 1981 and 1988 in particular.
  23. Tonights ECM seems miles out on a limb compared to all the other models (and indeed most the preceding ECMs). Would be lovely to think it would come off but I won't be surprised if its swept away by 8am tomorrow morning.
  24. Typical Express hyperbole! I seem to remember them repeatedly going for ultra cold temperatures all Winter and look how that turned out. Whats more I will be staggered if we have a record hottest May since the 15.2 record of 1833 is IMO dodgy anyway.
  25. Id like to stay optimistic for our summer prospects...BUT... at the moment this year feels more like 2002 than any other (I have lived in the UK since 1997). Looking at the CET for the year so far we are quite some way in advance of where we should be as an average and my feeling at some point there will be a correction. 2002 is a good fit because till the end of May we were 4.5 ahead of where we should have been on average but a disappointing nothing summer ensured we didnt go off the chart for warmth. Still came in at 10.61 for the year which is I think the 3rd highest ever after 2006 and 2011. So far 2014 is 4 degrees above average till the end of March and you would think April will add at least another degree to that. Got to be a correction at some point I figure. Maybe not wet since we had such a deluge in the winter but a correction of the warmth.
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