Penrith Snow

Exactly, the high hanging around like a drunk Uncle Barty at a wedding will just lead to very mild South westerlies, at least with yesterday's theme of cold zonality we had the promise of north westerly outbreaks or even northerlies. If this mornings charts verify its down to B&Q to collect some BBQ coals.

People who see potential in those 10 day ECM and GFS are deluding themselves, no good will ever come out of charts like that. We need the high to totally sink, allow the jet to dig south and open the door to PM shots, that's the only way to cold from where we are at the moment which is very similar to early January, pressure rises from the south never lead to cold and please don't bother posting the mid January 1947 chart it was a one off. Andy

High pressure dominates the South of the UK on theGFS 0z with the jet well north. Choice seems to be between mild and dry and this mornings GFS or mild and wet on last nights ECM, no sign of winter. Andy

Just a point of interest, I have been doing some research into winter 1963 in Penrith as its the 60th anniversary. A unexpected fact I found was that despite the deep snow in Penrith in February 1963 the lowest temperature recorded during the entire winter was just -12c compared to -11c in December 2022 (snowless) and -18c in December 2010. I know it's only one statistic but interesting nevertheless Andy

What’s worrying is that the ECM +240 is becoming a default pattern with huge high pressure centres over Iberia. Is this the new average winter pressure distribution? I have checked charts from the 1960’s and it’s almost impossible to find a synoptic chart like this mornings ECM Andy

Since the start of Netweather so many buzz words or phases have burst on the scene MOJ, SSW, MMA and my favourite Mountain Torque I have studied Meteorology for 5 decades and only recently have all these things appeared. They are like snake oil salesmen full of promises that they can forecast the future with these clever ‘Background Signals’ I am convinced it’s all boll*cks, made up half the time to make some people sound clever. Back in the 60’s we only had one acronym BDC, bloody damn cold! Andy

Dear God, the ECM is awful, it starts poor and just gets worse with the high shifting eastwards and growing to become a 3000 Mile wide Bartlett sitting over Iberia. Londoners will be going from scraping ice off their cars to lighting their BBQs on that run. Didn't look at GFS too depressed. Andy PS: All is not lost plenty of snow shots in Greece.....

For Gods sake say why then!

Exactly, similar here in East Cumbria with average temperature 0.5c below 1970-2000 average.

London has had a decent winter compared to many recent ones with the heavy snow in December and severe cold in last few days. Even if February is mild I have known a lot worse winters than this one! Andy

The one thing I have learnt over the years is don’t believe the models promising cold zonality 10 days out. I can do well out of cold zonality being at 400feet in Cumbria but these charts Never verify! Andy

In East Cumbria the average temperature between the 10th and 17th December 2022 was -4.2c, it was the third coldest spell since 1987 after January and December 2010. It was the 4th coldest spell since 1979 and the 5th coldest week since 1963. Coming so early in the season also made it unusual, however, we had just one snow shower and no days with snow lying, for such a cold spell that was also highly unusual. Andy

If February is mild as seems likely the seasonal model predictions back in the autumn of a front loaded winter becoming more NAO+ with time will have done well. Really any SSW next week would take 3-4 weeks to propagate down so we may have to wait till March for a proper cold spell which IMO is very likely this year. Andy

That quote really made me laugh, without dark humour everyone on this thread would be insane!

As if the Arctic Northerly wasn’t enough most places were swept by blizzards on 20th to 21st February 1969, just look at this chart for the 20th! We can only dream guys Andy

Another map from that Arctic Northerly in Feb 69, this is 18:00 on the same day and the snow had reached London. Nothing marginal on that chart! The 1960’s really were the golden years Andy

Here is the Daily Weather Report for that day, note midday temperature of -3c and heavy snow in Manchester as an area of drifting snow swept south. Now that’s what I call a Arctic Northerly unlike the tepid dishwater this week. Andy

On my travels around North West England this week I have noticed dozens of dead cordyline and palm plants in box displays across many of the regions towns, here in Penrith the town centre is littered with many such plants. So why are councils and some gardeners planting these tropical plants in the UK? They look great in public displays during the summer but are unable to survive severe winter frosts. In Penrith we had the third coldest spell in 35 years in December with a 7 day average temperature below -4c, some nights the temperature fell to-10c, this is way below the tolerance of cordyline plants. Despite GW the UK does not have a Mediterranean climate and daft Woke Councils shouldn't be wasting public money planting these plants in an effort to convince us that GW is real and North West England is now like the Costa Del Sol! Rant over. Andy

A narrow occluded front gave me 7cms of snow on Monday morning and many of my snowfalls come from these features. Occluded fronts have had the warm sector squeezed out so can bring snow in a cold enough air mass

Oh yes, probably the most severe northerly outbreak I have come across although I was too young to remember it, however, Philip Eden describes it well in one of his book: A severe northerly wind developed on the 7th and a band of heavy snow swept south across the whole country on these bitter winds, by the 9th only parts of Central southern England were without snow cover.

Yes, in their 15-30 day outlook the MetO often say 'low confidence' as indeed has been the case since December but now they seem confident in their outlook. Remember seasonal forecasts all pointed to a La Nina driven positive NAO February I think a notable cold spell is possible, even likely in March but IMO February is bust. Andy

Trouble is anything after mid February tends to be pants, OK the BFTE was an exception but late February snow tends to be brief especially these days, you can't beat snow in December or January, late February snow is never quite the same. Andy

To be honest the high will not be clear and frosty, more likely cloudy and misty with near average temperatures. The position of the high will quickly allow moist cloudy conditions to filter in off the Atlantic, better for heating bills but very miserable.

Not much change on this mornings GFS with a strong uk high meandering about bringing anticyclonic gloom to us and a Greek Snowfall Special for Athens. The high does migrate North in FI but with any cold a long way east. Andy

Tuesday morning saw temperatures at -8c in Carlisle and -9c near Penrith, helped of course by the snow cover. With more cloud Wednesday morning wasn't as cold with minimums around -2c Andy