edveasey

The understanding of past global climatic trends is excellent and critical for the prediction for future global climatic trends. To fully understand the future consequences of adding greenhouse gasses such as CO2 to the atmosphere we absolutely have to look at the earths climate history and all the realtionships that lie behind it. In doing so we can accurately predict the effect that man made industrial emmissions are having http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2009/06/090610154453.htm

Do not underestimate the effect that the release of greenhouse gasses through human industrial processes has and will have on the global climate.

Hi an interesting post, I wonder if in someway the accelerated and unexpected melting in greenland is connected to the hike in methane over the artic over the last two years http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2009/09/090927151132.htm

Hi Whilst I agree with you that there are levels of uncertainty, models take this uncertainty into account running thousands of times using different sets of figures within levels of uncertainty each time. What is then published is a high estimate, low estimate and and a mean (The media never run a story telling us the mean or the low estimates of climate change over the next century hence all we get shoved down our throats is the extremely high figures) but even if we were to take the average and lower estimates the estimated effects of global warming are still going to be devastating for many people in the world.

I did a simple thing a couple of years ago, CET against number of sunspots recorded, records for both these go back to around 1650 and can be found on the web if you want to have ago What I found was that a series of prolonged and low sunspot activity did corrolate more to CET temperatures than the shorter ones, that would suggest (simply from this data) that there is a cumulative effect, but there was also evidence of the shorter cycles having a direct effect also although not as pronounced. I would still maintain that the lack of sunspot activity for the last 4 years, coupled with a strong La nina would now be giving us some lower than average global data, rather than the higher than average although lower than late 1990's. I was very suprised by the record ocean temperature this summer I think I'd like to see what factors caused this if anyone has any theories.

Hi Doesn't the fact that we are still recording above average global temperatures despite being in a solar minima suggest that other man made factors are infact driving the climate. I heard this monring on the skeptics guide podcast that new research suggests that the solar cycle has a larger effect on the global climate than previoulsy thought; if this is the case why aren't we recording colder years. Am I missing something?

Thats okay actually found it amusing. Look, I'm not a climate expert, I've kept weather records for 30 years, I have a deep interest in weather and climate and from what I've read, see and observe I seriously believe if the warming was not driven by man made influence then the last two decades would not have been so warm, as I can see no other explanation for this. To go through the past few years without a below (long term) average year despite the prolonged solar minima, la nina is odd, 2007 was in the top ten warmest years globally recorded that is plain wierd unless we accept that un-natural causes (not cosmic rays) are infact driving the climate. okay I do accept it is possible that the long term feedback of the man made effects may not be predicted, but the evidence appears to be firming towards the consensus every year that goes by.

I think most of us knew that 1998 was an extreme event and that it was more important to look at the underlying trends rather than a single year, as I've said before if you use a very hot year in each decade you'll see signs of cooling or static temperatures between 1991 and 1996, between 1983 and 1987 the long term average though has still increased.

Actually the models have been proven to be extremely accurate over the last 11 years, the prediction and effect of long term solar cycles and other cycles such as el Niño/la Niña events are very accurate, they of cause have a level of uncertainty but global climate is predicted in trends and not day to day weather and thats what they are very good at.

Unfortunately it is not as simple as you state, increased levels of CO2 and other gasses such as Methane in the atmosphere have a warming effect on the planet and that's a fact, it has not stoped it is simply being masked by natural variations in solar output and global oscilations, as we approach the next solar maxima temperatures will rise and the long term trend will be shown to be correctly predicted.

Yes saw the same article on the BBC website http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/8236797.stm I think it nicely highlights and adds to the evidence of human activity having a warming effect on the arctic

Global Cooling is caused by global warming sceptics using 1998 as the year to base subsequent global temperatures on, using the same principles of chooseing a particularly warm year and then basing subsequent years temperatures around it, you'll find a period of cooling in every decade this century. The past few years have not been as hot as 1998 as we've gone through a solar minima and a strong el nina events that have masked the man made warming effects on temperatures.

What causes global warming In the past changes in globa temperature have been caused by natrual things such as position of major continents, out put of the sun, volcanic activity, and the position tilt of earths orbit, todays warming trend is caused by an increase in CO2 and methane levels. The natural variability has been filtered out of many models and these have been varyfied with observations

Looking at the 00 run and GFS kept the HP firmly in place of Greenland, with the wet and cool consequences for us, however this seems to be a bit of a freak run and not inkeeping with the trend of the models over the past few days and it's good to see the 06 run revert back to trend of developing LP over Greenland allowing the Azores high to move northwards and influence our weather. I'm now really betting on some lovely weather after the 26th, doesn't look too hot either.

Such contrast in peoples perceptions on the weather (past, present and future) at the moment, I'd be interested to see when summer is all done and dusted what the records actual say. especially the rainfall and sunshine anomalies I saw an earlier post that said there was an unusual amount of front activity, this could explain how one person can have 3 or 4 days seemingly wet weather whilst me living in South East London apart from Saturday and last Thursday afternoon, we've had a pleasant couple of weeks(Not hot and a little breezy with the occasional passing afternoon shower on a few days). I'm probably guilty of making predictions based on short term experience rather than looking at the bigger picture, and my optimism is based on the fact that the charts are pretty much predicting the same pattern of weather for the next week or so. I can see that the further north and west you travel in the UK you will be adversely effected the most by a showery westerly airflow.

I agree, If we look at what the models are suggesting for the next couple of weeks apart from Friday and Saturday of this week, it really doesn't look that bad, The north and west will the bulk of any unsettled and wet weather, the south and east will get the best of the weather.

I think that July is not a done deal yet and could go two ways. The way I'm reading it there is a real battle being fought right over us, the strong jet wants to scream weather quickly over the top of us, pushing the Spanish plume and HP to the south and east. But the way I'm reading the models is that the HP over Europe is going to be effecting our weather, stalling the lows to the west before pushing them northwards this would indicate that the south and east of the UK will be sunny warm or even hot from time to time, showers will be isolated and fronts will not produce a lot of rain. The pattern would be very much like what it was this weekend and today. I wouldn't be suprised at all if Kent and Sussex had very little rain over the next few weeks.

Sorry I see it defferently. I mentioned yesterday I'm watching the strength and position of the jet coming out of the US next week, I think that this will have a major effect on our weather medium term. over the last few models the trend has been to stall this in the mid atlantic temporarily allowing the Azores high to have a greater influence over the UK, and also allowing the high to extend over central and northern Europe Where as a few days ago the models were placing low pressure directly over the top of the UK we now see them tracking to the north of us. I still think it's a rather unsettled picture but non the less we look to be in for some very pleasant weather next weekend and the week after. If this situation developes as the models predict the end of July could see a prolonged settled period that could last into August, which is what the long term forecasts at the beginning of the month were suggesting. It always amazes me how we can be pretty good at predicting the general situation quite far in advanced but even the slightest changes in positioning can alter the detail of a forecast immeasurably.

I was hoping for something a bit different from the models today but they have at least made up their mind about next week. There is a slight stalling at the beginning of next week which could bring us some nice weather on Monday and Tuesday to the South East, but from Wednesday it all goes a bit down hill. The jet coming out of the US Thursday and Friday looks very powerful and pushes any stalling away. this is a still a bit away and worth keeping an eye on, will it be as strong as the models predict? any weakening of this event may create a blocking over N. Europe next weekend. This is clutching at straws the models seem to be consistant in predicting that any blocking will break down and give us a run of cool and showery weather for at least the rest of the month.

Hi Paul that would be my reading of the situation also Also keep a watch out; if the continental air makes it's way upwards for the likelyhood of some very heavy rain as comes up against the atlantic LP has the potential to be very nasty. interesting I've noticed that GFS is determined to develop low pressure over scandanavia, if this is the likely trend in the medium term then any fine weather we do experience next week will be short lived

Next week is looking interesting, there is a degree of uncertainty from Monday onwards that could bring us an excellent week of summer weather. On the other hand as the heat over central Europe builds next week and with the proximity of the low to the UK it could mean fireworks right over the top of us Wednesday-Friday next week (to me it looks like a similar general situation to the summer a couple of years ago when the west country suffered severe flooding)

Really interestnig change in the GFS 06 run as compared to the GFS 00 run next week it seems to me that there is now a possiblity of a blocking high becoming temporarily established over germany - scandanavia area that looks to me if the trending of this situation continues that it'll link into the Azores high and have a real effect on the weather in the south of the UK. If this situation developes I don't think it'll last long enough to build any hot weather but certainly wotrh keeping an eye on over the next few days. Anyone else have any thoughts on this.