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Downpour

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Downpour last won the day on July 7 2011

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    North East London (E4) 147ft

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  1. A NW/SE split has to some degree been the form horse during this ‘unsettled’ spell, which has in and of itself seen several decent days for the SE quadrant. Looks likely to exacerbate, as we head into August.
  2. I think this is very fair comment. I have just spent the weekend in the Yorkshire Dales: Friday, Sunday and most of Saturday were warm and, often, sunny. There was some rain and a couple of evening storms but these were rather limited in duration if not in potency. I think the modelling is far too often misinterpreted. A lack of a UK high does not equate to a "horror show". Conditions can very often be decent at the surface even when low pressure is "in charge". Today is another decent warm day in the SE at least.
  3. I don’t disagree about today (although my plants are loving it) nor about the general prognosis. Yet the modelling has undoubtedly overcooked this week - it could be warm even hot at the weekend again.
  4. I think this is right. The modelling produced a grim weekend for all at ten day range, yet we are now focusing only on Saturday, wondering about the timing of the front. Friday looks good. Sunday decent. A far cry from the promised washout.
  5. One thing is for sure is that the hyperbolic outcomes progged by some models at 6-10 day range have been a bust for down here at least. This epic unsettled week has been a complete non-event, a couple of ropey days then back to warm and dry from as early as tomorrow. Could be quite hot for a time at the weekend. Fairly typical fare really, nothing particularly unusual. There is something summery in the models as early as Day Four! Well inside the reliable.
  6. I think this analysis is spot on. I've been monitoring this coming weekend closely, as I'm on holiday in the Dales for a long weekend. The forecast has undoubtably improved. I still expect rain, but Thursday, Friday and potentially even Sunday might be pretty good days. We'll see.
  7. Regarding the anomaly modelling, what I would say is that the interpretation of the anomalies often fails to live up to reality. Too often, members see a blue ring near the UK, then write off that week. Yet as others have said, the exact position of the trough will make a huge difference to the weather on our small island. This week's much vaunted 2012-esque rainfest has verified to an unmemorable two-day wonder. And the coming weekend could be warm from many. Anomalies have their place of course, but by their nature are very broad brush – and therefore can flatter to deceive on our small island.
  8. The hope for the N/W is that the front pushes through in a few hours on Saturday leaving Sunday largely fine. Friday and Thursday afternoon look decent but the timing, extent and mobility of the front on Saturday remains somewhat unclear.
  9. Takes its own sweet time to get there though. Seems everything is slowly getting pushed back west and the evolution taking longer to arrive?
  10. There’s been a general improvement on tonight’s models as far as this weekend is concerned. GFS keeps the trough mostly to the west, pulling up warm air from the south. But it’s still fairly fine margins.
  11. Is it going to be that cool, in the reliable? Raw output suggests warm temperatures next weekend, for example. Probably with a fair bit of sunshine, too.
  12. Saturday’s ECM chart looks somewhat plumey. Would be hot in the south but warm even in the north.
  13. Is this actually true? My sense is rather the opposite, that most dartboard style lows tend to get watered down as we approach T0 (not all of course).
  14. The GFS 06z is a peach for most of mainland Britain weekend of 8 July. Brings in a heatwave for the south and warm or very warm conditions throughout England. Low swirls around aimlessly to the NW pulling up warm conditions from the south. A few runs have shown this scenario now. So while not the form horse, it cannot be discounted.
  15. Yes, the 12z isn't as warm a run as the 0z or 6z but still leaves a dry weekend for the majority of the UK 9-10 July. In terms of sypnotics, it still moves the parent low away NE fairly quickly next week although without the secondary low sucking up the warmer air from the south. Still, useable days after a wet period midweek next and the detail will of course change from run to run as you say.
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