Regarding the anomaly modelling, what I would say is that the interpretation of the anomalies often fails to live up to reality. Too often, members see a blue ring near the UK, then write off that week. Yet as others have said, the exact position of the trough will make a huge difference to the weather on our small island.
This week's much vaunted 2012-esque rainfest has verified to an unmemorable two-day wonder. And the coming weekend could be warm from many. Anomalies have their place of course, but by their nature are very broad brush – and therefore can flatter to deceive on our small island.