JamesL

Great to see that many are seeing falling snow today almost down to sea level

Any reports from west wales? re precip?

Let’s see shall we

Thank you v much

I did ask earlier but think it may have got lost Anyome have the models take on tomorrow’s snow in the S of Wales? Thank you James

IF the ECM is wrong then it has dealt with this extremely badly You can’t dispel what it’s showing BUT it’s pretty much on it’s own It will be interesting to see how it sits amongst its’ ens Personally I’ve felt that the Ukm, gfs, gfs par, gem et al have all seen a fairly “clean” evolution this eve Ill never discount the ECM, it would be foolish, BUT the odds are stacking against it tonight imo

Can anyone share the latest output for tomorrow re the potential snow in SW UK please Thank you

As expected a rain fest for the south today and it seems to have gone a little further north too and the warning zone was adjusted back north lol Tomorrow looks to be a better bet and as this front went a little further north it could bode well for tomorrow’s but this time we have the cold air in place Be prepared for either big upgrades or a non event lol Jay is right in that any warning will prob be issued later on today if it’s coming at all

Good evening ladies and gents!! Looks like the warning was moved south as I alluded to yesterday which is good to see BUT I think away from elevation there will be nothing tomorrow Maybe falling wet snow but certainly not settling. I guess it depends on whether we get a decent undercut of cold air before the front slides away south Sunday looks a better bet BUT this time precip looks to be light Just a shame saturdays front couldn’t wait until Sunday lol Either way this weekend will of course spring some surprises and then the following weekend the fun really starts I’m binning the ECM this eve. It’s flip flopped around like a fish out of water after 120-140 recently UKM has been fairly resolute and you certainly would bet against it in the 120 range tomorrow which is when the fun really starts Enjoy the snow My sweet spot I’m going for is Brecon and surrounding and of course the route across the Beacons, past Pen-y-fan from the A470 in Merthyr will be treacherous I’m sure

That’s positive

Sat and Sunday’s events are sliders with forcing from the wedge of heights to the north Tuesday is a SW-NE event as the fronts plough through

It would be a blink and you miss it type of event

Not a fan of that model tbh The hi-res ECM pretty much nailed the last one. I’d stick to that personally but it’s always nice to see the others fall into line as the event approaches

More places in S Wales will see snow later on Sunday overnight into Monday It won’t be crisp and even, rather slushy and transient and on sat and we may have to rely on evaporative cooling more than on Sunday away from 150m asl where snow will fall widely on sat But we all know that knife edge snow events surprise even the pros and they can also provide quite severe conditions very quickly. I’ve seen heavy rain with flooded roads turn to heavy settling snow which laid down 6” in just a few hours when I lived in Kent. 5 miles away the Precip stayed as rain. Crazy!!

I think you’ll be swayed by close of play tomorrow

An exciting weekend end coming up As expected the models are slowly correcting south The best chances for nationwide snow are growing on Sunday now as temps even in the Capital will struggle just a few degrees above freezing Saturday will depend more on elevation than Sunday but somewhere along the Heads of the Valleys should score on both days with Saturdays snow topped up nicely on Sunday before later Monday we see a thaw set in Then it looks by the following weekend temps take another dive with the snow risk increasing again Mark my word I think the warning area will start to edge south esp for Sunday’s event All in all a very exciting few days coming up!

Lol so just purely made up?

Which model is this based on please?

An interesting 48 hours coming up There’s no way that ANY model has this nailed yet My thoughts? It Will correct south and bring into play the Valleys and SE Wales As for Cardiff I think prob rain and maybe some transient back edge sleet or snow Aberdare I think will sit on the boundary. But HoV will do well as will Beacons, Brecon etc My guess is the Warning zone won’t change But expect surprises just south of it

A blend of the ECM and UKMO would give parts of mid/se wales and the s midlands some snow. Also EC particularly highlights snow into Home Counties too It will not be resolved yet but IMO any high ground above 200m in the south of the UK highlighted above would probably see falling and settling snow and maybe a transient event lower down (snow to rain or vice versa)

Thank you right over my house lol

Any snow depth charts from UKMO

If you look North and play the radar loop as the low moves away expect that blob up near the N of ireland to be pulled this way

Just had another heavy snow shower in Aberdare still around freezing here. No dripping to be heard

Here in Wales (valleys) it’s passed through and given a very nice 2-3” here near Aberdare Hope you all in the Midlands get the same show. Temp dropped and snow powdery now and still snowing very lightly Video from around 30 minutes ago with an appearance from our resident Owl IMG_6440.MOV