saperlo

Apologies to all if I’m covering stuff that’s old hat – I have read back over previous discussion now and am better acquainted with the thread (although maybe not enough, so thanks to all – esp. VP and Cap Bob - for your patience!) Myself, I’m very much in the “yet be proven” camp on AGW, and it’s great to see it being investigated and discussed without all the usual emotive stuff. VP regarding possible drivers for your hysteresis thesis, have you considered 1. Tilt/wobble of the earth wrt the sun (nutation), which is cyclical every 18 years approx. Coupled with the variables of solar activity will certainly vary the exposure of the earth to the sun’s radiation, in an extended and complex cyclical pattern (implications of which may be years away being understood) 2. Decreasing salinity of oceans due to sea level rise – fresh water has a lower specific heat capacity than salt water and the oceans are a massive heat sink - as the sea becomes more dilute it releases this heat progressively. Even a small change will liberate a lot of energy 3. Variation in Pacific algal blooms which follow solar cycles

Quick interjection as someone coming late into the topic (sorry) Couple of physics points 1. The Stefan-Bolzmann law of radiation is that the " total emissive power of a body is defined as the total radiant energy of all wavelengths emitted per square metre per second" but remember the emissive power is proportional to the absolute energy but to the fourth power, E = sc x T4 (sc = stefan's constant, written as gamma but I don't have the fonts!) Thus absorptivity does not increase more than emissivity as energy in a system increases, because emissivity increases as a fourth power 2. The point you raise about the egg is (IMO) a reference to entropy (randomness or disorder), which involves the second law of thermodynamics, which as you say involves the direction of physical processes (in isolated systems) This doesn't involve complex structures (like reforming a broken egg) but does involve distribution of energy in a system (eg heating a metal rod at one end will ultimately cause the whole rod to reach the same temperature and to emit radiation equally along its length) 3. Hysteresis does occur at the subatomic level e.g in electrical capacitors The thing here is that the apparent delay is only a delay in observable change. In respect of energy, a change in potential energy is immediate

Thanks for the link Cumulus I've downloaded your book now and am enjoying it I'm going to be emigrating to the US next year (to Connecticut) so have been over a few times already, enough to experience the media. Are you sure you want your materiel being handled by Fox News and particularly Glenn Beck - you might be tainted by association! (although I think your book is excellent and wish you every success with it)

Cold here at - 4.0 degrees with heavy frost which hardly lifted and no wind. Might get colder..?

I wonder what "rotten" ice is supposed to be? Given that in the physics of solutions, passing from a liquid to a solid phase causes precipitation of compounds depending on their freezing points, thus solutions will separate out into there constituent compounds(so ice is made of fresh water) The term "rotten ice" implies ice made of something else in addition to H2O, which is not something I could explain I wonder if this is a bit of pseudo-science? ... that's not to say I discount Dr Barbers paper - I'm just wondering exactly what he means with this euphemism

Lovely sunny day here, 10 degrees and dry, but absolutely freezing wind.

Still to reach us in the NE yet...raining just now

Started watching but gave up - very poor programme full of hyperbole

I often get the feeling that Rob McKelwee puts a few coded references for those more in the know - makes his forecasts far more engaging.

I hope this winter has been the start of a general trend that will continue. What we've had so far has been fine but not quite what what was hoped for I think.

It's very dreich here too... On the plus side, a couple of old local farmers have both said to me there's more cold on the way soon. I asked them how they knew - they just said that it "feels" like it. No computer models or any sophistication at all - if they turn out to be right maybe I should hire them up for Netweather!

Early days yet, but some hope for + 7 days on GFS? Doc1.docx

I usually expect some snow at end of Feb - early March. I wonder if we'll manage a final burst of winter or is that it now?

Have called my Snowman "Benjamin" after the character in the film where the hero ages backwards. Managed to build him up to about 5 feet with a major weight problem Up till now he's been OK, but today the snow is definitely on the retreat. He shrunk a bit today and is looking a lot leaner - but I fear the prognosis...

Nothing much to report in this part of the world Had hoped for more cold and perhaps some snow, but temps are just above freezing and sky is clear.

Have gone just over freezing here now - just up to 0.1 degs. Quite a change from the last 2 days with - 13.2 Hope it drops a back a bit - I'm not ready to lose the snow yet!

Down to -5.5 now Last night at this time was -10.0 so looks like we're not going to get a record tonight - still hoping though!

Very cold and dry here again. Currently - 4.0 Last night was - 13.2 on my weather station which was the coldest I've seen Would love to beat that tonight, but not so confident this time..

- 12.0 here and still falling, though more slowly now, so may be about to bottom out. Watching the thermometer drop is keeping me up late!

Weather station here is showing - 11.2 degrees and still falling.. Been for a walk and it sure feels like this, absolutely Baltic I'm wondering now how low it will reach tonight

Hi Cookie Do you think there will be snow in Lewis today/tomorrow? All the forecasts seem to say all quiet and clear. Only, if that's possible I'll tell my mum to stay in tonight. She only lives in Coll, but she just can't handle difficult driving conditions.

Actually, the igloo is really quite warm inside and amazingly quiet I'm considering moving in for awhile and maybe getting a couple of penguins!

Hi All Few pics taken from my garden this morning Includes igloo!

Hi All, Very heavy snow here last night - the most I've ever seen. Have attached a few photos from my garden - spot the igloo!

In fact the temp/humidity has just gone up on my weather station If this continues I'm getting the BBQ out... Anyone for a (soggy) burger?