Frank Trough

GFS now falling into line with Euros post Bertha. GFS has really struggled to shift the low heights - it often does that but it is now waking up. No heatwave but hopefully a gradually improving picture after tomorrow's antics. decent chart for the sout coast. Bournemouth beach would be sheltered and packed if that comes off.

just wondering why would you base such a forecast at this range on the ensembles? I thought the ops were run at a higher resolution? Wouldn't they be more likely to get a grip on this at such short range? Mind you, the ops don't agree either so i'm clueless (as you've guessed). Also GEM didn't make anything of it last night either so todays 00z is not a one off.

the latest met office surface pressure (as of 7:30 this morning) charts don't really make much of it: it's more like the UKMO did on some of it runs earlier this week. Similar to the GEM today as well which has gradually backed away froma significant event: But then there's the ECM at GFS....... This has been really interesting hasn't it? and there's still no consensus in the operational output! GEM fries the southeast again in FI:

it is to my eyes, yes. Still a little way to go to be sure of anything for the weekend in this type of situation but this does look a bit like a GFS capitulation. The UKMO has never really fancied Bertha to be anything of real note over the last few runs and is now supported by ECM and GFS 06z. Just the GEM now....... We await the 12z runs to see if a clearer direction has been found across the models.

Sorry, just for clarity (i don't know about the models struggling - i am) you are saying that the GFS/GEM more unsettled conditions for sunday/monday are more likely than the ECM/UKMO version which seems to tone everything down to a virtual non-event? The GEM looks pretty interesting - that's some depression for August isn't it? looks more like october. verses FAX chart for the same time: i'm finding it all quite interesting - a very dynamic situation. Presumably the way the low deepens (or not) will have a knock on effect for how the weather evolves next week? Different degrees of unsettled i guess?

Apologies if this has been mentioned elsewhere but I just stumbled on this photo taken yesterday at about 8:30am out in the channel south of the Isle of wight: http://iowbirds.awardspace.com/Pictures/Waterspout919aCulver040814.jpg

the weekend is comprised of two days, of course. And the outlook varies a bit depending on which model you look at, but as your using the GFS then Saturday doesn't look all that bad at present - a bit blowy but bright and quite usable: Zero sign of any country-wide warm or settled in the operational output this morning beyond the weekend, but then after Jun and July I would find it hard to complain. GFS offers a bit of hope for more southern areas of at least something drier. Looks breezy throughout.

all well and good but the "brief 25c" wasn't showing until recently - the trend in recent days has been to settle the weather somewhat in the early part of next week. So, next sunday being 8 days away -i wouldn't like to call. I'll say this though - for the south it doesn't look that bad really.

for what it's worth you can also have a peep at the ensembles to help establish how much support the operational has: So for the south at the timeframe you suggest the op is not an outlier but has limited support. We shall see. As stated above eventually the Atlantic will break through - that's just a matter of time so if you keep looking for it eventualy you'll be right. The jet was supposed to be "powering up and diving south" this weekend according to the GFS last week and it most certainly isn't.

Looking towards the end of the weekend/start of next week the GFS looks pretty underwhelming compared to the Euros. All models look better than they did 3 or 4 days ago but to me (and I stand to be corrected) the UKMO looks to me like it wouldn't take much to end up with a much flatter scenario a la GFS: The Euros look almost a bit too clean to me - I hope i'm wrong as i'm off next week but i'm reserving judgement until tomorrow when things get into the more reliable. Is it possible we could end with something of a middle solution as happens sometimes? i.e. flatter than the Euros but not as flat as the GFS? The METO update yesterday suggests to me something more akin to a flatter pattern.

latest met office further update isn't great: UK Outlook for Wednesday 23 Jul 2014 to Wednesday 6 Aug 2014: Based on the GFS FI and some posts on netweather it looks like game over. Updated: 1242 on Tue 8 Jul 2014

Ah, but you need to factor in to the equation that I am on holiday for two weeks (in the Caribbean - there will probably be a hurricane) at the end of June so they are bound to be the warmest, most settled of the summer! Phrases like "washout summer" and "northern blocking....setting up residence for the summer" are basically a surrogate for "summer is over". Don't care what anybody says. I desperately want you to be wrong.....but if you're right (and let's face it, there's as good a chance as any) i'll eat humble pie and dance naked on Netweather! P.S. summer 2013 was brilliant from mid june until the end of August in Bournemouth.....where the sun used to always shine!

After last winter the "writing off a whole season before it starts" seems to have gained a bit more traction. It's perfectly plausible of course but it's also spectacularly wrong on more occasions. No better example than last year - last May you wrote off summer, Shedhead said it would be like 2010 and SP1986 said it would be the same as 2012. I know you'll all be desperate to say "I told you so" when we've all drowned by the end of August but please let's at least let a bit of summer actually happen before we do. and who knows! maybe the 06z is right! yes, some rain to get through but it does at least show how even that pattern can evolve more favourably (it's not massively different to the ECM in the latter part). I'm a summer weather fan I make no bones about that and i'm not prepared to throw in the towel in May!!!! Sadly I am almost always wrong.......

could it not get a bit further west? (i'm clutching at straws really - at least warm and thundery might feel a bit better?!). I have the inflatable kayak primed and ready to go, don't worry.

don't be ridiculous. Summer's over. Haven't you been reading this thread?! you couldn't make it up! post after post of doom and the ECM produces this: What chances, i wonder? The GEM is close to not being that awfuk tonight as well. The GFS definitely doing its best to get contigency planners picking up the phone, though. All is not quite lost yet.......

I think perhaps last year may have been a case of "the monsoons rains failed this year" rather than any kind of glimmer of real hope.

oh no! start preparing your Ark and book that mediterranean break - SP1986 is posting in the MOD! it's 2012 all over again - all we need now is shedhead finding the worst GFS ensemble and we've made it I don't care if it is synoptically different but viewing the model output ("can that trough really stay there until t+384?") and reading MOD it certainly feels like a repeat all over again. The rain is just crippling - everywhere is saturated again, garden full of slugs, rivers and estuaries the colour of tea. Surely this is just a little phase we have to get through?

Am i the only person thinking that rainfall could end up being fairly apocalyptic next week? I'm distracted from wondering about 850's and am left thinking that flooding might be the real talking points. ECM for wednesday night: anybody remember this?

06z maintains the theme of the warmer feed - nothing cool showing on this run in terms of uppers. GFS now pretty close to the ECM at the same timeframe: so either the ops are wrong and we'll see low placed differently to allow cooler uppers or perhaps the higher res ops have handled the crucial nearer timeframe better than the ensembles? either way, bucket loads of rain for places in the south I would think. Possibly more with a warmer, unstable southeast feed.

So that indicates something other than low pressure to the west/southwest? Something more akin to previous GFS runs which had the low further north and east? It's been interesting watching the swings over the last few days - it often is when the models play around with low pressure moving up against a block. Whatever happens with the positioning of the low i'm expecting central/southern England to be wet next week.

very poor outlook (unless you like cold and wet weather). Make the most of the few days next week, because if this is anywhere near correct you can forget the rest of May: Breezy, cool, wet at times. Roll on "flaming june".

just housekeeping still at this stage, but the METO now indicating "midweek" for something better... "From midweek there are signs of a quieter spell of weather becoming established..."

how often does any model "nail" day 10, though? The crucial timeframe is much nearer with regards to any "better" weather next week. It's all about the position and depth of that next low in the Atlantic to whether we see a ridge pushing up ahead of it. Until that's resolved i can't really see much point looking at day 10 mean charts. I remain skeptical about any meaningful countrywide height rises until i see the UKMO modelling it inside t+96.

The UKMO looks altogether less interested in anything - it doesn't really deepen the low as much and has it much closer to the UK so not really allowing pressure to build north. I hope the ECM isn't having another one of its "ridging high pressure" moments. At least the GFS develops more favourably this morning, albeit a little bit slower.

colder option must be nailed - winter cold's post has been rated +3? nailed. mark my words.