Frank Trough

it's nailed on. it would help my CET guess.

GFS/GEM vs UKMO/ECM for next week. (GFS has the same evolution as the GEM but is a bit slower). Any chance of a clean victory for either side? or a middle solution?

GFS 06z continues to be a bit more positive for later next week and treats the unsettled spell as a bit more of a "blip" than the ECM. It'll be interesting to see what happens. The met office don't really seem keen on anything overly settled for the foreseeable.

10.9 awful. wet. northern blocked. cool.

The 06z delays the onset of the Atlantic a little compared to the 00z and delivers a better bank holiday nationwide (the southeast still looks best, though). But yes, at present it seems like the GFS idea of heights being shunted away next week is a good call, also supported by today's METO update. The details will change, though. Have a look at what the models were showing for today 6 days ago. I'm wondering what model this guy uses? "Jonathan Powell, forecaster for Vantage Weather Services, said temperatures are going to hover below-average for at least a week. He said: "We are looking at a northerly flow of air coming in from the Arctic. With windchill this could push thermometers as low as -5C. "Temperatures are going to sink decidedly below average for the time of year with the risk of very sharp frosts and a cold and bracing Bank Holiday next Monday". He has a different concept of "bracing" compared to me, that's for sure.

I think the disappointment is relative! Bank holiday weekend still looks excellent at this stage (considering it is a bank holiday!) - bit of a break down next week before high pressure rebuilds for the following weekend! The other good news is that the cold has gone now - in fact (I can't copy and paste charts in my new browser? annoying) the 850's now don't go below zero for Hampshire at all. Different oop north obviously but compared to what was being shown it's a big change. Plenty of time for tweaks to bank holiday weekend for better or worse but at least Saturday and sunday look like almost countrywide decent days. I'm looking forward to some drier weather - it's been really wet down here since Easter, surface flooding again places.

since when? they've been spot on in downgrading any potent northerly but that has happened gradually. Last week a bitter northerly was supposed to be setting in by monday. I hope the GFS (Guessing Forecast System) has guessed incorrectly in the latter period - although May is now traditionally cold and wet so it'sprobably right. Pointless northerlies.

The GFS doesn't develop that classic little spoiler low off Greenland at t+168. GEM and ECM do and it prevents any proper cold air filtering south. If it was winter you can bet your bottom dollar that low would verify but it's now beyond the mid point in spring.

I was thinking about the recent abundance of above average months...what has it been? July, august (?), October, December, January, February, March, April..? Can it continue? not indefinitely. Predictions and models aside, surely we are due a few below average months and it would be typical they would occur in summer. I think May is going to be cold and wet (northern blocking lingering, troughing over us) and on the basis that above average has to end mulitplied by sod's law, i'm going for a cold, wetter than average summer. Plenty for Karyo and Laserguy to enjoy...and nothing much for the rest of us. There, i've said it.

I think i would re-word that - the GFS is now more similar to the ECM. The Euros have been promoting stronger blocking to our north east/north for a few days now - it's taken a while for the GFS to Catch up. this is the GFS today for midnight tuesday: this was it for the same time (ish) two days ago: The UKMO/ECM will provide the best guide for next week over the next few days.

yes, while we're talking of "trends" there has certainly been one to improve the weekend. I'm not sure any of the operational output shows anything i would describe as "cool" for sunday at least? (away from the far north). here's how the ECM saw sunday yesterday evening: probably revert to a raging northwesterly tomorrow morning now! anyway, we can expect these sort of tweaks as approach Easter, for good or bad. What's shown at 240 isn't likely to verify.

looking at the charts, it looks like the sort of thing you would expect in April.....wait a second...

UKMO looks a bit different at t+144 to the others. Not quite sure which way that would go but i think it could go colder from the northeast more quickly than GEM and more quickly than theGFS does (eventually) FI. I'm not buying the ECM tonight. I think a brief warmer spell next week before we descend towards something much colder from the northeast towards the first weekend in April. I just think things are primed for the high to move towards greenland at some point - perhaps the UKMO too quick but i would go with the GEM (which is more similar to the ECM of last night). So, plenty in the short, mid and long range to keep everybody interested i think!

i think the ECM is due a victory after the winter it's had. The reality is that neither will be correct at day 10 at face value. But for me i'm going to side with the ECM and it's colder evolution, however it pans out. Plenty of GFS ensembles going cold later: in the nearer timeframe, good agreement on some warmer uppers moving in over the weekend and early next week. Cloudy but milder.

Dry. That is all.

Blimey. For the soaked south that's incredibly bad news. Presuming March has a decent chance of being drier than average that would leave December, January, February, April, May and June all wetter than average! Oh well, going by that pattern we might get a few dry days in July.

trouble is the more the "change" stays out in past t+168 (arguably further today) the more spanners can get thrown into the works in the short term. I always liken it to train journeys. The more changes you require the more chance there is for things to go wrong. I still can't believe we'll go the whole of March and April without at least a two day northerly, surely? that would be ridiculous. Wouldn't it? To be honest, for the soaked south and southwest the ECM and GFS this morning are pretty decent for "dryies" !

the "breakdown" was at T+240 3 days ago on all models (and not at all on the GEM which was apparently the next best thing a few days ago). On the GFS it has moved a little closer (t + 200), on the ECM op tonight there is no "breakdown" for the south. Now. It will obviously breakdown - that's a fact. But, the "week of dry weather" now looks like it has the potential to be 12 days for the south. It HAS been pushed back. I agree with an earlier post though - i think it would be a bit of a surprise if we avoided a northerly altogether but we know what northerlies are like. Come to t+72 and they're over the low countries. The main thing is we continue to slowly dry out and amen to that.

2009 and 2011 also featured spells of high pressure sandwiched with colder, unsettled conditions. i'd say they bear more resemblance than 2012 as it stands....for what it's worth anyway. GEM aside, no change in the longer term outlook as it stands. Week/10 days of settled followed predictably and typically enough by something more unsettled the nature of which is to be decided....

The GEM has really taken to this high pressure thing, hasn't it?! It was being praised a while ago for showing a trough-dominated pattern continuing but since it realized this was wrong it's really gone for it. this is how it thought sunday was going to pan out: it's fair to say it's backed away from that now. So, i don't think i'll be buying it's high pressure domination idea now either. GFS and ECM both have a more unsettled outlook in the longer term and that's certainly the way the met office are headed so i think i'll be going with that. Spring snow is a possibility every year. No reason why this would be any different - that would be fairly typical. To my mind the ridge next week has got to go somewhere and providing it doesn't just sink into Europe it will always open up the possibility of something more unsettled and colder or even properly cold. Mind you, i'd be happy if it hung around until October now.

a buzzard!

I don't know that the GEM has been all that good - over the weekend it was looking very flat for the end of the week, now it's much nearer the ECM/UKMO/GFS version of events: However, it may have a point about the longer term on a broader scale as there's no doubt things look pretty ordinary this morning. Still, "not as bad as winter" is still the case.

the way things have gone for the last 3 months i think it would be a good bet to keep a cluster of runs that retain troughing near the UK (you never know when you might need them), especially with no real let up in the cold over north America as yet. Until such times as the UKMO begins to show any form of pressure rise at t+120 then i'm not going to get my hopes up of something more robustly dry. Mind you, the METO 6 to 15 day outlook suggests something more friendly as we go into the second week of march. I'll keep watching and hoping!

A "heatwave"? not only is that not going to happen, but the article doesn't actually mention that anywhere - just "above average temperatures" which in itself doesn't look especially likely during the first part of march - at least not significantly so. I don't know why I didn't consider journalism as a career - it seems to be incredibly easy and doesn't actually require a knowledge of anything or the ability to read, understand and process information that is provided. And, the best bit is there is no obligation to report anything accurately to the people who actually read it. Brilliant! The old Viz magazine image of journalists sitting about drinking at lunchtimes and having daily heart attacks in the afternoon seems about right to me.

....despite the GFS's best efforts in the shorter term! Quite incredible really the longevity of this pattern. Is this the longest "westerly" outbreak ever recorded?! So we are now looking at mid march before any real change comes about? Hopefully the emphasis will remain on a more "traditional" zonal pattern though, from an IMBY perspective I don't want to see that gradually eroded away.