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Certain kind of fool

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About Certain kind of fool

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    mullet-fishing moron

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    Bournemouth, near the new forest

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  1. Indeed. March can deliver all kinds of nonsense. Can't help feeling that the shallow surface high at some point in march is going to deliver something colder for the uk, not just the north.
  2. Predictions for 2017?

    2002 had a pretty poor summer (very wet july), five years later 2007 had a very wet summer, five years after that came 2012. Five years later....2017? I reckon a cold wet spring followed by a very wet summer. Misery will abound. I can't tell you how much science has gone into that "forecast".
  3. I'm willing to bet march 2013 isn't repeated 4 years later.
  4. I've just woken up in a bit of daze. It must have snowed here too...there is a little on shed roofs. Missed it all. Was it good?
  5. I had to laugh at the lovely Alexis' forecast this evening. All showers dying out north of us through the weekend BUT she was quick to add that they are expecting double figures next week. I bet we don't struggle with those if they verify.
  6. Model Moans, Ramps and Banter

    "roaring easterly sourced from Greece"!! That said, I challenge you to tell my wife when she's moaning on Saturday that it isn't a roaring easterly she's encountering!
  7. Model Moans, Ramps and Banter

    we know all that............I think the point is how ludicrous things have got when you get a roaring easterly in early February with -8 uppers and still we find a way to get rain...
  8. Model Moans, Ramps and Banter

    I keep thinking the same thing! HOW DARE THIS EVEN THINK ABOUT BEING MARGINAL? On this basis you can expect the next ice age to only manage to produce drizzle in Bournemouth.
  9. I was just thinking exactly that! I think midlands northwards (esp. the towards the east but not exclusively as that little low moves across ) could see some quite meaningful snow. I like the snowless Bournemouth area on the chart you have posted!
  10. At least in this case the background signals are favourable as well. We all know only too well that retrogression and genuine Greenland heights are modelled way more than they clarify. I guess that's true of several patterns which are outside the envelope of normal for the U.K.
  11. you need to also read the quoted post to put it in context - I don't think anybody was actually calling it a plume in the summer sense LOL. MWB was just referring the milder uppers being dragged up from the south next week - "rather like a plume". just taking the 06z ensembles there is pretty good agreement on the warmer uppers making inroads: after that plenty of scatter but there is a downward trend again. So based on that I'd say the "change of airmass from a SE quadrant" has - AT THIS STAGE - more chance of verifying than a cold northerly at day 10.
  12. on balance I'd say the "plume" has more chance of verifying than any northerlies next weekend at this stage.
  13. The previous blocking episode earlier in the winter the ECM absolutely nailed in the long/mid range. The ECM admittedly had the blocking too far north initially but at the same time frames the GFS was smashing westerlies all the way to Russia. Don't rule out the ECM view of things longer term. As is typical in winter the focus on here is always day 10. but in this case we have an easterly setting up at t+48 so the real interest is the much nearer term for now. FAX charts over the next couple of days are going to be of great interest.
  14. It looks like a bit of a grey misery fest on the ecm? Or will it be clear and frosty? It still looks like a wait for anything snowy but there is no doubt we are still in the game for a while. That blocking isn't going anywhere fast. and easy to forget that a westerly fest was being advertised not long ago.
  15. I think we're going to hear a lot of references to March 2013 over the coming weeks, especially given charts like that. Worth considering that the chances of a repeat are statistically unlikely. Very unlikely. March 2013 was the coldest since the 1880's or something. So we have to ask ourselves how likely a repeat would be 4 years later? stranger things have happened though. Maybe it will be the new normal?! There will be plenty of hope for that if the current snow chances keep reducing.