russell k
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Everything posted by russell k
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Model Output Discussion - Winter arrives
russell k replied to Blessed Weather's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Understood my apologies -
Model Output Discussion - Winter arrives
russell k replied to Blessed Weather's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Don't often quote on here but in all the years watching the run up to Christmas/New Year HP gives more chance of cold than a raging PV -
That's a shame as looks like significant snow at altitude, given that "stormbound" could be the headline!
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I thought the funicular was still out of operation?
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Yes would take those synoptics, much more might be In jeopardy but we are all in the ball game...await upgrades...
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Check , Mild outliner, best await 120/144. I stand to be corected
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Yes were back, agreed lots more in the next 4/5 days and even after that opportunities for cold and snow continue, better than most winters ECM op maybe an outliner for central UK, don't often post but I think expectations are too high against the return of the beast, lots of un expected snow yesterday, expect that be the trend post 144 ...anywhere K
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Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold
russell k replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I agree with Crewe and others, that see this as a longer haul to cold, with the vortex so disrupted I'm happy to see these synoptics appear now, but a delay into December would be delightful! -
Model Output Discussion - cold spell to end Autumn
russell k replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Best quote of the day ("Now I Know what a Short wave is!) -
Model Output Discussion - cold spell to end Autumn
russell k replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Thanks I now know what to look for ("not bears around Greenland" but "kinks in the isobars") Great explanation -
Model Output Discussion - cold spell to end Autumn
russell k replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Seems a bit selective nevertheless to delete my post! -
Model Output Discussion - cold spell to end Autumn
russell k replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Probably the 12z suite, which we don't see until 3.30 Maybe the pros see it roll out at the time it is run?? -
Hmmm, sorry bluearmy.. but If we have a 10% chance on 5 days it should equate to 50% over that period of it snowing on one day of those 5, a bit like rolling a dice 3 times you have a 50% chance of rolling a six regardless of which dice I use, thats why I dont understand how the % chance is calculated, I take it than the same member has to predict below -5 *50s and precipitation at the same time. Sometimes they add up to more than 100% but it doesnt snow over those 15 days, anyway lets hope the latest NWP shows a higher chance
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Hi B.W. Great pics Most of the snow will be rain at the base, top of the solar coaster 4000ft up from the base that said hope we get some action in the alps....before xmas!
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Brilliant thanks
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Very light snow here, might get a cm ......if it continues by this time next year!
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Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Autumn/Winter 2014/15.
russell k replied to Polar Maritime's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Well said Frosty, I enjoy reading this thread, the models are showing some chances of some snow over the next several days, so if it is of little interest... go and discuss it in your regional thread! Maybe some of us have other concerns -
Great forecast for the alps 60cm to 80cm ATM have a good time russell
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Model Output Discussion - The Run In To Christmas
russell k replied to BlueHedgehog074's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Thanks Ian, so what time lag is there between your access to the NWP and the General public? Apologies for the tea and biscuits!