russell k

Yes would take those synoptics, much more might be In jeopardy but we are all in the ball game...await upgrades...

Check , Mild outliner, best await 120/144. I stand to be corected

Yes were back, agreed lots more in the next 4/5 days and even after that opportunities for cold and snow continue, better than most winters ECM op maybe an outliner for central UK, don't often post but I think expectations are too high against the return of the beast, lots of un expected snow yesterday, expect that be the trend post 144 ...anywhere K

I agree with Crewe and others, that see this as a longer haul to cold, with the vortex so disrupted I'm happy to see these synoptics appear now, but a delay into December would be delightful!

Best quote of the day ("Now I Know what a Short wave is!)

Thanks I now know what to look for ("not bears around Greenland" but "kinks in the isobars") Great explanation

Seems a bit selective nevertheless to delete my post!

Probably the 12z suite, which we don't see until 3.30 Maybe the pros see it roll out at the time it is run??

Any idea when the ENS update on NW ? still showing 06 from yesterday,,,thanks

Thanks for that Yarmy, so how is the 10% calculated for the ensemble suite and do all the 20 members (is it 20 including the control and op) have an equal weighting ?

Hmmm, sorry bluearmy.. but If we have a 10% chance on 5 days it should equate to 50% over that period of it snowing on one day of those 5, a bit like rolling a dice 3 times you have a 50% chance of rolling a six regardless of which dice I use, thats why I dont understand how the % chance is calculated, I take it than the same member has to predict below -5 *50s and precipitation at the same time. Sometimes they add up to more than 100% but it doesnt snow over those 15 days, anyway lets hope the latest NWP shows a higher chance

Thanks So did I, but is the actual chance of snowfall for that location actually 10% on that day? or if it showed 5 different days at 10% I would have a 50% of snow in that time frame? so on up to 100%?

Good question Ravelin, I rarely post on here, statistically it doesn't make sense to me. Is it computer generated or added on afterwards? There is also the version of the ENS showing a "snow row"

Hi B.W. Great pics Most of the snow will be rain at the base, top of the solar coaster 4000ft up from the base that said hope we get some action in the alps....before xmas!