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Pembroke Dangler

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Everything posted by Pembroke Dangler

  1. Pembroke Dangler
    900 will do
  2. Pembroke Dangler
    Yes a net easterly draw there, think it’s as far as I’m looking ahead here it’s an improvement and would probably think the GFS will blow lows up later on in the run. Nice up to this point
  3. Pembroke Dangler
    Could probably do with them being stronger and digging further south off the eastern seaboard so it would help drive warm air advection up into Greenland to block the Atlantic altogether.
  4. Pembroke Dangler
    Allow the arrows to guide you, there’s no way that high will fall back into the med as long as the low (Black line heads to Italy then the high (red arrow) moves to Scandi and voila the beast comes along the blue arrow. At least that’s how I see the 48 hours following.
  5. Pembroke Dangler
    Now wouldn’t that be something huh the Swansea Snow shield moving north over Brecon allowing the snow to batter us here in the snow desert lol
  6. Pembroke Dangler
    Great example of evaporative cooling
  7. Pembroke Dangler
    Definitely a bit of sleet in these heavier bursts coming in now uppers must be cooling behind the cold front that went through earlier
  8. Pembroke Dangler
    Had a few flakes here this morning left a dusting on the cars and road first flakes of 2020 here how ironic it’s the last day of the year lol
  9. Pembroke Dangler
    That will feel bitter, cold east wind and temps around 2-4 feeling like -2 -4 in the wind chill brrr seasonal indeed
  10. Pembroke Dangler
    Yeah I think the Irish Sea needs to drop another few degrees which since last week has, it was 10oC now it’s down to 9oC we need to shave another couple of degrees off it down to about 7 this will do two things 1. It will stop the colder air getting modified as it comes in from the north and 2. Less precipitation but with the right depth of cold still enough to produce lake effect snow. We can but dream lol
  11. Pembroke Dangler
    For me the period after tomorrow mornings potential south coast clipper is showing more interest if you look at the fax charts, the all important 528 Dam line (etched lines) is showing to head way south of us and there’s plenty of little fronts and troughs embedded in the north flow so fingers crossed we’ll be in the game for a while I feel. Sorry the charts aren’t in the correct order lol go bottom up
  12. Pembroke Dangler
    Really wish the steamer tonight would head further east to hit Brecon as it’s just so heavy the rain is here and a waste of potential snow for the beacons and higher ground. Maybe they should issue a flood warning for here it’s literally belting down.
  13. Pembroke Dangler
    Think we will be relying on heavy stuff with a bit of evaporative cooling to get anything remotely sleety out of this tonight 3oc here just ain’t cutting the mustard
  14. Pembroke Dangler
    Looks likely to be an unclosed shortwave heading in from the north west sliding in
  15. Pembroke Dangler
    Yellow weather warning area has been expanded to cover most of central and southern wales bar the coastal areas and Bar the west and north coasts
  16. Pembroke Dangler
    Merry Christmas all here’s to a much more festive looking 10 days
  17. Pembroke Dangler
    Ta da
  18. Pembroke Dangler
    I believe they factor wind chill into the forecast temperature over there where as out forecast just gives raw temperature.
  19. Pembroke Dangler
    Yes it looks promising and as we draw nearer the time notice how the 850 temps are coming down. Somewhere in wales will get pasted I’d punt at somewhere like Merthyr could get buried in snow
  20. Pembroke Dangler
    Bit gutted about lockdown really, as can’t go for a drive up to Brecon and walk up pen y fan next week between Xmas and new year to got a snow fix. So fingers crossed the snow can come here and bury me
  21. Pembroke Dangler
    Good old Swansea snow shield in great effect there lol could swing back to yesterday’s chart where we had a couple cm’s. plenty of time until the details get firmed up on but we’ve got a ticket to the raffle at least.
  22. Pembroke Dangler
    Yes it’s a great watch on the mod thread at the moment lots of excitement at the prospect of some proper winter weather frosty freezing fog and as you say the chance of a few flakes on the big day itself. But it’s the period after Christmas that’s got my attention possible Greenland High setting up then morphing in to a scandi leading to a Beasterly for 29th, and all this before a SSW looks to split the tropospheric polar vortex in two which could bring the real winter blast for the rest of winter
  23. Pembroke Dangler
    Yes also if the pattern did head down the repeating northerly Toppler route you’d hope for a far less intense hurricane force storm tracking down the North Sea so that there’s less mixing out of the colder air coming from the north/ North west. So purely from a pattern perspective it’s good we just need the systems to be less intense say a MSLP of around 990- 1000.
  24. Pembroke Dangler
    It’s looking more likely we could be in for a cold Christmas period with frosty drier conditions but depends on how strong any north/northwesterly wind is off the Irish Sea which could pick up some moisture and give a few places a surprise dusting of snow for the big day itself, to far away for details but similar patterns in the past have brought snow showers in streams off the Irish Sea but at the moment temperatures at 850 may not be cold enough but there’s time for it change.
  25. Pembroke Dangler
    Sounds like they are going by EC46 guidance with higher pressure to the north and east and lower pressure to the south, could be looking at slider gate come early January, hopefully we can sustain colder air around our shores so the fronts can bump into them but let’s not get ahead ourselves let’s get the next 7 days patterns nailed first for a Christmas chill and hopefully a few surprises of a snowy kind
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