Pembroke Dangler
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Everything posted by Pembroke Dangler
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Yeah the ECM it’s been a joke of a model this past few days it showed sw gales on this mornings run all over the shop it’s been recently
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Something tells me if the Latest ECM run is to be believed we could be looking at battleground wales again with lots of snow potential after next weekend could be some big dumps
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Model output discussion - is the beast awakening?
Pembroke Dangler replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Looks like day 10 onwards on gfs high retrogresses to Greenland allowing the motherload to drop from the north east cone on you can do it -
Watching the animated radar and the front seems to have nearly slowed to a stop I think it’s going to pivot and start heading back south keeping us in the colder air so snow could carry on through the day until this evening across the south
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Yes it’s weird how the UKV has the front dismantle and fall away to the south I would have thought it would pep up a bit coming across the Irish Sea before sliding south. I’m plumping on the Harmonie for this one it was almost bang on with last weeks event.
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Model output discussion 24/01/21
Pembroke Dangler replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
At least we can predict the points for the U.K (Nil points) The ecm will be on the money tonight sliding the low Sunday and cold in earlier next Thursday. High not as blown up as the GEM and Para but still enough to deflect the Atlantic se and drag in -8 uppers nationwide (I hope) -
It’s quite the tease but in reality (at the moment) you’d have to take a lot of the white colours away and more blue maybe leave a bit for the beacons Snowdonia and the black mountains heads of the valleys
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Changed to snow
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Sleet here now bit heavier stuff on the way looking up towards Carmarthen way could be tiring to snow now fingers crossed
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Yes confirmation it’s Just Rain here would have liked these showers to have arrived later this evening as we may have been the right side of marginal but temp is 3oC here now
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Tonight’s precipitation is now encroaching western Ireland on its way to us looks like a lot of heavy echoes over there just hope it stays intact and as intense after it crosses Ireland and not to much of the energy is sapped over land in Ireland
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I think the snow coming in during the period of the low water as the tide will be ebbing out will have an influence with less warming on the immediate coast as more land is exposed I.e. the burry inlet and Severn estuarys less warmer sea water to affect the base layers etc just my thoughts but happy to be ridiculed lol
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Right now I’d take just seeing a few flakes falling from the sky after the last few winters we’ve had here in Swansea I’m a little bit further from the coast so fingers crossed my alarms set for an early one
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Odd looking precip type chart showing sleet and snow almost the exact outline of wales bar the south and east at the mo could be some surprises now
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Wind direction just changed with a really brutal squal here in Swansea crazy weather went from hitting by rear window half hour ago (south facing) to hitting my front window Temp just dropped to
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If only this came off that would produce some huge amounts of snow for the snow desert of the south west south south east please for once let this tick down to 0
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Looks like the ssw down welled right onto Liverpool airport quite a localised one lol
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Oh if only this was this weekend coming as it’s to far out to be sure but fingers crossed
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Although the building blocks were in place by day 6 so it’s counting down we just need not look further than 144 and the consensus is a trough east of uk and heights west/North west surface conditions will change between now and then in terms of how the colder air lines up, but the trend today is positive from a cold perspective. I just feel it will upgrade from here on in. Cold is coming
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Winter 2020/21 chat, ramps, moans and banter
Pembroke Dangler replied to Paul's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Yuk it’s not like we can even escape this crud to go skiing in the alps for a snow fix hopefully we’ve had a couple of rogue outlier runs from the gfs and the next few will take us back to something resembling yesterday’s 12z runs
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Bank
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ECM seems to always underplay 850 temps in fi but with this set up you would easily knock a couple of degrees off them nearer the time
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Didn’t see that coming at all after the op run to be honest, this has westward corrections written all over it this week coming the warm front could stall on the England wales border at this rate come Thursday it’s happened before a certain January 2013 event comes to mind
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I don’t know but it’s nice too see never the less perfectly plausible and within the envelope of the means at this point in time great synoptic
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Looks like the parcel of precipitation moving over the Mersey is getting reinvigorated as it crosses the sea could be a good thing for us southerners as it may well reach us with more intensity left in it fingers crossed
