Pembroke Dangler
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Everything posted by Pembroke Dangler
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The overriding pattern still points towards the polar vortex sitting primarily over the north Asia/Siberia local with continuing higher than average heights over Greenland and a general trend to put the uk in lower heights. Make of it what you will but we are in the ball park for a cold few weeks I would say.
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Model Output Discussion - Deeper into Autumn
Pembroke Dangler replied to BlueHedgehog074's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
And look at the lower heights gaining around the med. could be a rip snorter of a run coming up here -
Model discussion - hunt for cold - Christmas countdown
Pembroke Dangler replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I’m thinking the Cyclone in the pacific over the weekend has had a significant impact on the downstream pattern causing the Greenland height to retrogress to quickly and the response now as it begins to decline is for more heights to remain over Iceland and east Greenland putting more pressure on the incoming lows for the festive period so more trough disruption is showing that’s my take on it, could be that the lows disrupt even more over the coming few days and the Channel Islands could once again be the sweet spot -
Model discussion - hunt for cold - Christmas countdown
Pembroke Dangler replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
You’d have to say anywhere between the -4 an 0oC isotherm would be ok as the drier colder air on the continent should engage the occlusion so rain to snow maybe -
It’s crazy to think that all that precipitation that was heading our way yesterday seemed to just evaporate as it came over land so we had a few scraps of snow but today the precipitation comes in unabated and intensifies over the land of only that had occurred yesterday. Never mind maybe one last wintery hoora to end the month and start of March (maybe) but also wouldn’t rule out an early spring warm up too. I know what I’d prefer
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Yes I remember my folks speaking of the event it was forecast to be rain in the south but it was so wrong snowed for around 18 hours constant yet across the Bristol Channel they had rain. The archive chart above shows the 0oC 850 isotherm was just touching Wales’s south coast. Uppers aren’t everything in event like this if the winds ahead of the advancing front are from an east or south easterly direction off the continent more often than not there will be snow and allot of it. This one coming next week has all the hall marks of the 1982 event just look at the GEM shows hours of snow almost all over wales.
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Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?
Pembroke Dangler replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Hopefully it will follow the one before and slide into France dumping loads of snow to the south and west as it does so -
What I’ve been encouraged by is that on all the model runs between yesterday and so far today the cold has been shown to carry on past what was supposed to be next Wednesday but has now been moved back to Friday and I bet as we gain closer it will move into Saturday and so on so the it seems the track of the Atlantic lows is showing to take a east south east track int France as apposed to just bulldozing through the uk and as such more and more snow opportunities for us in Wales as we remain to the north of these lows. Could be some places with over a metre of snow come next Friday beacons will be the sweet spot with widely 10-20cm of snow right down to sea level. Don’t tell the family yet though
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Yes the front looks like sliding to the south and wales remains on the colder side with battleground snow which in the past have produced a good few cm of snow could be a January 81 redux with wales getting 18 hours of continuous snow and the folks in Devon and Cornwall get rain such would be the boundary high risk high reward