Pembroke Dangler

March 27

Snowing heavily big 50p flakes here settling on cars and grass

February 13

13 hours ago, andymusic said:

would be nice but it is the crazy gfs 18z pub run

Bank one last horah for a walloping even if the snow melts by midday I’d take it after this winter that promised so much and delivered so little

February 9

Lovely 6Z run from day 9 onwards but we are relying on a shortwave being ejected east from the parent low in the Atlantic to trigger the height rise to our west at 210 which is plausible but lots that could go wrong with this evolution much like this weeks low which headed north and splits.

February 5

Wow well since this morning there have been about 10 pages of reading and I was thinking there must be a beast coming or a long fetch cross polar northerly but no it’s another garden path job and we are looking for some wedges here and there to salvage a cold weekend. Stroll on spring I’m missing my Golf and cycling and the ecm 216 looks like some warm air wafting up from Spain let’s have it if we can’t have snow and ice.

February 5

I’ll believe it when I see it but this has Swansea and some of the south in with a shout latest met office take on things

February 4

TEITS My eyebrow was raised this morning with the ecm showing a big correction south but my other eyebrow is raised looking at the aprege, could be a south of the M4 affair come tomorrow’s 00z and then Channel Islands by the 00z Tuesday.

February 3

Ironic that the only dry slot is right over Swansea and Gower couldn’t make it up that good old snow force field (Beacons) in full force lol

February 2

E17boy ideally we want the system to remain shallow until it reaches the North Sea and then deepen to wrap the cold around on its western flank keeping the south in the cold air with a rain to Snow event as there’s no cold air in place before the system arrives. Like the GFS 6z shows around the 160 hours timeframe.

February 2

bluearmy Thanks for that feels like the middle of January system a bit, could miss to the south altogether and head into France at this rate

February 2

bluearmy Is that the ecm 6z control further south?

January 28

4 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

Jff but a slider snow event at day 9.

It then transitions to a decent northerly but as you say JFF would be great if that’s how it happens.

January 24

2 minutes ago, Paul said:

I've put together a quick 'how to quote' type guide, which includes some more information about selecting text on both android and iOS devices, for those who may not be sure.

Just a test for future reference thanks seems fine to me

January 18

7 minutes ago, bradymk said:

Great to see low level and even coastal snow in Pembrokeshire, a fairly rare sight.

In the north a heavy shower approaching Llandudno right now, hopefully snow? Similar size shower has recently moved through Bangor area too.

Shower signal has seemed to decrease slightly for tonight on recent model runs. But UKV still showing some showers moving fairly far inland in North Wales between now and midnight. Similarly with Cardigan Bay, and moving inland to Carmarthenshire with maybe some towards Swansea area.

-5.5c here in Cardiff last night, fairly impressive minimum.

been keeping an eye on this trough moving south east out of NI I wonder if it can keep intensity for tonight could head our way fingers crossed

January 16

Just now, sebastiaan1973 said:

Who's quote is that?

I spy with my little eye a scandi high

January 13

4 minutes ago, keithlucky said:

Well this is getting silly slightly further North.

I think this is the mean so will be some runs which will bring the front further north and some further south and hopefully we will be stuck in the middle with snow

January 13

11 minutes ago, keithlucky said:

First signs of snow showers tommorow night.

Yes I think we might see a flurry or two tomorrow night, just need the temps to drop before it arrives as they could be sleet rather than snow if they come to early Monday into Tuesday though could be good

January 11

2 minutes ago, Tamara said:

Two things:

The energy distribution on UKMO is much more separated upstream than GFS and hence tendency towards a more split flow/ sub tropical jet is emphasised.

Also the -ve inertia (-ve zonal wind pockets) at higher latitudes is modelled much more and the amplification inertia within the extra tropics has less low AAM bias than GFS - which piles all into the polar jet and ends up with the scribble in the extended period that it does. It sees a brick wall but models/simulates attempting to drive straight through it anyway.

Gfs has this nailed

January 11

3 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

Where has that random shortwave span up from that turns into a proper low west of Ireland?

Shows you how things can pop up under cold unstable air

Yes on the previous frame it was just an open wave over the Irish Sea but has developed rapidly by the next bit to far ahead to worry about specific details by Thursday next week the main thing is the initial push of cold air is further south by Monday on this run

January 11

4 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

Here's yesterdays 12z run and todays 00z run.

That’s quite the shift south in 24 hours around 100 miles or so which makes me think the sweet spot will be the Channel Islands as I suspected a few days back. The south east May catch the northern extent of the front as it sweeps through the channel but all will stay cold with pop ups likely and harsh penetrating frosts under clear skys and ice days for midlands north. Some sheltered parts of mid and north wales could hit double digit minimums at night brrr

January 10

2 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

Very, very good 06z. very very good day 4 FAX..

Love the fax charts as they always show more isobars and that’s got direct northerly all over it and troughs embedded heading down in the flow

January 10

1 minute ago, Arch Stanton said:

With the Jet Stream predicted to steam into Iberia next week, does that mean the battleground scenarios for snow/rain along the M4 corridor are no longer an issue and snow should be had for all?

It will depend on the shape of approaching systems from the west but yes more chance of us all staying the colder side of the Jet and more wintery potential to anything falling from the sky. Specifics left to nearer the time but the pattern looks primed for the Jet to stay south for a while.

January 9

3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

EC mean is incredibly good again..

Very slidery looking that systems angled nw se and no Iberian heights either

January 9

1 minute ago, That ECM said:

Get past T144 then this will become clearer.

Not sure the orientation of the low is right here with the block to the nw it would angle it more nw/se and disrupt into the channel leaving us all cold but it’s way out to be worrying about specifics. Nice run though and plenty of snow opportunities you’d say in the earlier periods upto 168.

January 9

2 minutes ago, Midlander said:

Patience (JFF)

Wowzers that’s outstanding would be perfect all along the M4

January 9

1 minute ago, snefnug said:

Part of me says yes, the other says definitely not!

I think it will correct further south in time they usually do and the Channel Islands get buried but we stay cold with snow shower chances. But you never know 42 years is a long time between big snow events so we are due one. Not including 2018 as us in Swansea we’re wondering what all the fuss was about.

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