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  1. As I just said GEM was first - not that it matters anyway really - the one model is better than another model is a rather wearisome discussion
  2. GEM showed this change to no Northerly and Atlantic coming through yesterday with the same kind of comments (about it being rubbish) - in this case the model picked this change out first if it happens like is shown at present.
  3. It is a rain event unfortunately -can't seem to post the image
  4. Yes - but this is where we started with the previous one and then it kept adjusting S and ended up in the Midlands - this could do the same or not - we will see. It is something of interest at any rate.
  5. Could be slidergate 2 developing - this has shown up for a few runs now.
  6. If that model was to be believed we would all be having a white Christmas. Fortunately NASA has been shown to be not very good at predicting climate so weather should be the same.
  7. Model Output Discussion 01/09/17

    Looks like they have gone with their model as they usually do.
  8. Model Output Discussion 01/09/17

    Terrible grammar in the tweet - one reason why I rarely read tweets
  9. Model Output Discussion 01/09/17

    It says in the text UKMO was tied 4th (i.e behind theses three).
  10. Model Output Discussion 01/09/17

    Very clear trend on De bilt ensembles. Steady cool down this week then a notable warm up for a few days. this is then followed by a steady decrease again - remarkable support for this at this range with only a few members going differently (including control).
  11. Model Output Discussion 01/09/17

    ECM mean at 240 looks excellent - large negatively tilted ridge in the mid Atlantic. It is probably best to not keep reacting to every detail of the Op runs and talking about upgrades/downgrades etc. It looks like it will be blocked for the foreseeable future and the details past 4/5 days are currently unknown.
  12. Model Output Discussion 01/09/17

    Not a great set of ensembles compared to previous runs London somewhere in Scotland - Op definitely a cold outlier - hopefully not a trend -
  13. Model Output Discussion 01/09/17

    It is not winter yet - or only just in the outer limits of the models. Expecting flatlines below -8c is fairly optimistic IMO - probably only happened once in 100 years (2010) and then for 3 days at the end of November and 3 days at the beginning of Dec (edit -and that came from ENE not N or NW like we have in prospect).