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  1. Updated t24 fax is very different to the earlier t36. It has the low much deeper and further S with more energy going E through France t36 (12Z) t24 (18Z)
  2. As I just said GEM was first - not that it matters anyway really - the one model is better than another model is a rather wearisome discussion
  3. GEM showed this change to no Northerly and Atlantic coming through yesterday with the same kind of comments (about it being rubbish) - in this case the model picked this change out first if it happens like is shown at present.
  4. It is a rain event unfortunately -can't seem to post the image
  5. Yes - but this is where we started with the previous one and then it kept adjusting S and ended up in the Midlands - this could do the same or not - we will see. It is something of interest at any rate.
  6. Could be slidergate 2 developing - this has shown up for a few runs now.
  7. If that model was to be believed we would all be having a white Christmas. Fortunately NASA has been shown to be not very good at predicting climate so weather should be the same.
  8. looks very nice - pity the one half is shoved over us.
  9. Control goes off on one - big spread at end
  10. swilliam

    Model Output Discussion 01/09/17

    Looks like they have gone with their model as they usually do.
  11. swilliam

    Model Output Discussion 01/09/17

    Terrible grammar in the tweet - one reason why I rarely read tweets
  12. swilliam

    Model Output Discussion 01/09/17

    It says in the text UKMO was tied 4th (i.e behind theses three).
  13. swilliam

    Model Output Discussion 01/09/17

    Very clear trend on De bilt ensembles. Steady cool down this week then a notable warm up for a few days. this is then followed by a steady decrease again - remarkable support for this at this range with only a few members going differently (including control).
  14. swilliam

    Model Output Discussion 01/09/17

    ECM mean at 240 looks excellent - large negatively tilted ridge in the mid Atlantic. It is probably best to not keep reacting to every detail of the Op runs and talking about upgrades/downgrades etc. It looks like it will be blocked for the foreseeable future and the details past 4/5 days are currently unknown.
  15. swilliam

    Model Output Discussion 01/09/17

    Not a great set of ensembles compared to previous runs London somewhere in Scotland - Op definitely a cold outlier - hopefully not a trend -