swilliam

Updated t24 fax is very different to the earlier t36. It has the low much deeper and further S with more energy going E through France t36 (12Z) t24 (18Z)

As I just said GEM was first - not that it matters anyway really - the one model is better than another model is a rather wearisome discussion

GEM showed this change to no Northerly and Atlantic coming through yesterday with the same kind of comments (about it being rubbish) - in this case the model picked this change out first if it happens like is shown at present.

It is a rain event unfortunately -can't seem to post the image

Yes - but this is where we started with the previous one and then it kept adjusting S and ended up in the Midlands - this could do the same or not - we will see. It is something of interest at any rate.

Could be slidergate 2 developing - this has shown up for a few runs now.

If that model was to be believed we would all be having a white Christmas. Fortunately NASA has been shown to be not very good at predicting climate so weather should be the same.

looks very nice - pity the one half is shoved over us.

Control goes off on one - big spread at end

Looks like they have gone with their model as they usually do.

Terrible grammar in the tweet - one reason why I rarely read tweets

It says in the text UKMO was tied 4th (i.e behind theses three).

Very clear trend on De bilt ensembles. Steady cool down this week then a notable warm up for a few days. this is then followed by a steady decrease again - remarkable support for this at this range with only a few members going differently (including control).

ECM mean at 240 looks excellent - large negatively tilted ridge in the mid Atlantic. It is probably best to not keep reacting to every detail of the Op runs and talking about upgrades/downgrades etc. It looks like it will be blocked for the foreseeable future and the details past 4/5 days are currently unknown.

Not a great set of ensembles compared to previous runs London somewhere in Scotland - Op definitely a cold outlier - hopefully not a trend -