MR EXTREMES

2010 was a prominent mjo phase 8 and phase 1 in that winter. there's a lot of energy being bottled up to our north and northwest it seems to me that a scandi high is possible. but i was thinking more around Iceland for blocking. and hello gang been awhile, but I'm back for my winter fix. ukmo is the model to watch if unclear ecm.

1970mb greenland heights surely thats record breaking? 2010 neg nao and central pressure was around 1050-1060mb......

i do believe this stratospheric warming will be a quick response warming, due to the continued mixing out of the deeper cold. since start of the season there has been continued warming, but not to sudden warming . so far so good. jma has just picked up on it today. ecm and gfs have this coming warming as sudden. i think personally this is a watch this space moment. im confident this will have a very quick effect so even if we do get a west based nao it wont last long. just my 2 pennies worth. regards mr extremes

something stirring in the strat. was pretty confident of a Canadian warming event this season. although less confidence now. so now its a race to get enough disruption to the polar vortex. its an odd season what with failed east qbo. but id be very surprised if we dont have a few stratospheric events this coming season. hoping for mjo phase 8 or phase 1 especially into and later part of November. but realistically its also possible the vortex will return on steroids. but so far there are some wave attack's being shown the more the better and stronger the better. hopefully we can knock the vortex away from its usual residency, and have a Scandinavian dominated mother vortex. jma wants early wave attack. both gfs have wave attacks but further on. but regardless worth keeping an eye as this season gets under way.

absolutely no surprise with the dominate heights in the northern hemisphere so far.

its clear across all models that the nw to se attack is very visible right now, if it been mid November or early December there would be some wintry weather. and im sure the longer range models have no idea on forward projections. early buckled jet is always a good start although vortex is not matured just yet. but if this pattern continues could get very interesting moving forwards. as for storms this could well be the most stormy since 1986.

964mb impressive. jet certainly looks buckled at the moment. northern blocking seems dominant at the moment. jma 10hpa looks interesting to. mind you been here many times before.

jma showing some slight warming will this build further. expecting some stratospheric action this year.

Yes your very much right easterly looks likely. but more runs needed to see where we go after this.

there be an easterly of sorts i still reckon its possible of cold northern blocking. the jma and ecm are in agreement . be interesting to see how this turns out.

im looking for a retrogression of heights into northern blocking both gfs and gefs have the vortex disrupting over to Siberian side of the arctic but a cold end to march maybe into early spring. the easterly qbo must be falling deeper keep an eye on the nao and ao got a feeling northern blocking with be the form horse for awhile. but perhaps a much better summer. but back to the models easterly then cold getting mixed out. in the longer run Canadian vortex takes a holiday. bringing Europe to below average with cold pooling developing. after the mixing out of cold in the UK theirs northwesterly or a reload from the north that could possible bring a colder northeasterly or another easterly. but much colder into northeastern Europe as the Canadian segment drops down into Europe.

Realistic to. some fun and games with the cold surge coming from the east.

With big segment of pv over Siberian side. March does tend to deliver an easterly but jigsaw parts are coming together quick. Any further north them heights go could well have a proper cold spell. Maybe not months but perhaps a week or two. Mind you wait till the ukmo agrees with the GFS. Very cold air bottled up in the north its been very cold at the pole and around the Arctic. Wonder what the ECM says I reckon it will also go easterly.

Cold end to march perhaps cold Easter to. The ECM has moved more inline with GFS. 2009/2010 we see an Azores high set up over the UK then pulled northeast bringing and easterly. I wouldn't bank on a warm up just yet. But a drying out of UK looks likely. But wintry weather is still possible down the east coast and southern areas.

scandi ridge colder by mid march then perhaps there all trending colder.

To be honest there's more than one model toying with colder ideas. This morning ECM and GFS looked great and the gefs looks like a cold snap and a almost situation nowhere near done deal. lots going on in the stratosphere and there's some cold on offer. Lubbly jubbly. GFS had the Atlantic and us in the freezer.

Been sustained warmth in the stratosphere and some extra warmth to come but even the models are sniffing around and seem to be responding to something. If the vortex is on the ropes eventually there be an opportunity. the glosea model was mentioned a little while ago and that had the possibility of a stratosphere warming. so far and about a week or two before the other models. So worth a mention I thought.

Thanks Dennis for you stratosphere plots earlier. Theres a possibility of complications with model projections due to the current period of heights. But the Ecm slows the trend slightly enables a warm flow of the Greenland iceshelf a precursor of a stratospheric warming. There's also alot of warm wave activity which is somewhat putting enormous pressure on the vortex holding it over the Eastern side of the pole double whammy would be a stratospheric warming which could possibly aid in a cold end to winter into spring. The vortex is definitely wobbling this allows pressure rises in unexpected places this then also desrupts the vortex further. But we shall see the cold troposphere verses the warm stratosphere. 50/50 but the Ecm is not the worst tonight.

but the glosea sees a possible ssw. but matt hugos tweet suggests different. still reckon feb will surprised depending how the sww works out. be nice to have the latter displaced vortex over the siberian side of the pole and maintaining that location. big ask i know.its been worse than 2014.. id say if the gfs and gefs along side jma for stratospheric warming event strengthens over the coming days, then there's a possibility especially if the glosea had this idea in its projection going forward.

take ya pick anywhere north of cornwall would see something wintry. massive swathe of deep cold along the north. northwesterly pack a punch this year. they did a little back in 2014 which northern areas benefited from cold westerlies and cold northwesterlies. now thats a cold northwesterly. even cornwall can build a snowman instead of a sand castle lol.

to be honest this is the best looking charts for going forwards towards cold, all season of coarse could be a phantom run,or garden path extravaganza, but its not the worst. seeing more colder charts over the last few days it looks like we are building momentum, but also the possibility ending up with a straight westerly. but the jet stream arcing over the uk then plunging down through scandinavia but then recurving further south in the central med, with this creating a pocket of low pressure around the central med. how long will heights hang around out west well its pressure reading are not really weak.

wait for it here comes a cold surge from the north core heights out west. and ukmo is close to a northern arctic plunge very close. but this most certainly depends how out west we can get heights and a northwesterly would also be cold especially up north and west but not exclusively.

yes much colder runs than early this morning from the gefs and gfs. but looks far to complicated to be right so far out. but even some very cold northwesterlies earlier in the runs.

in the infamous winter of 09/10 i noticed the north pacific had very cold sst. since then the large body of warmer waters has been a constant for a number of years. every winter sees this big blown up heights northeastern pacific. which i believe helps the vortex 1 to hold its strength without to much interference unless a stratospheric warming event. to it seems to keep the vortex in the north pole location. so in these winter types although the ao is still able to go negative this alone is not enough. during the winter of 09/10 largest player was there coupled deeply neg nao as well as the ao. but since 09/10 we have not had a neg ao or nao that negative since. i believe records where broken for the nao negativity. so there for the vortex had a bad start to that winter and was heavily disrupted allowing a greenland high pressure cell that just kept going and going. the vortex was on the ropes at the start and by december there was no chance for a come back. the modoki el nino has also been a rare feature since then. and just a question the amy butler charts posted above im sure 09/10 winter was el nino year with modoki but it says on there la nina. please correct me if i'm wrong. still very interesting. However, additional signals may support the pattern flip, according to experts. "There are also some other signs of potential change late in the month, such as a weakening of the area of high pressure off the Atlantic coast," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Jason Nicholls said. https://www.accuweather.com/en/winter-weather/whats-happening-with-the-polar-vortex-this-year/655523 at the moment i don't think the removal of the atlantic high pressure is going to do us any favours. its just not looking like our year but maybe feb or march even april. at the moment things don't look great on the stratospheric front.

Indeed the last few days the Ecm projections have been somewhat zonal all the way. Gefs had some lovely charts towards the end yesterday. I've not seen GFS runs today yet but yesterday did show changes. It's also good idea to keep an eye on the jet and depth and strength of heights and depth of lows plunging down to our east. I mark down 17th to 20th of this month for a pattern change. Still have high hopes that a cold back end winter. But before this the thorn being the blocking of the northeastern side of the Pacific. Its been a monster year in year out for some time. But time will tell.