Severe Siberian icy blast

I'd say cluster five is quite similar to the opp as in we do seem the struggle at first to rid the mid lat heights despite it moving towards Greenland there seems a lag of heights over the UK but it turns out great. We're in a very very good position, early Jan, warnings above, background signals affirmative, Greenland high, undercutting, siberian/Scandinavia vortex! Could be one to remember this year or am i still shell shocked from the 1947 channel five program the other night!

Come on lad, we have a UK high on this morning runs and none of us can call it anything other. If this moves 500 miles further north then yes we will have an easterly but the overnight trend is dropping it south not north. Im not saying its curtains just saying how it is currently

A definite trend for the high to sink a tad, but lets hope the initial lift can get the high pressure further north than this mornings model's predict, The 0z are very often flat for which i have know explanation for but regardless of this all models have limited the northern limit of the initial high pressure lift off this morning runs. Last night's runs were fun, and with some credence behind them too so i dont think it's a done deal yet but the envelope is closing.

What time is this on!?

Some absolute peaches in those stamps

A stiff westerly would be too much for that no?

The vortex is showing signs of moving toward Siberia and slowly draining away from Canada with tentative signs of high rises putting pressure on the vortex, linked to the Canadian warming few wks ago? When we go through a period of zonality the models do tend to go into default at times effectively changing its entire output to dampen previous signals, ie mjo... However i believe we're going to now start to go through changes within the model output which should slowly begin to play catch-up with previous signals. If we can see positive mountain torque events over Asia which was the form horse aka direction of travel until recently when we've had - EAMT but showing tentative signs of reversing. All to play for the next wk for me

I agree entirely, it's fascinating how we all read things according to how we choose to do at the time whether it be mood, emotions, it plays a part, but personally I'd say it's an upgrade comparing one another but best we dont hinge on every word its hard enough in winter in hear as it is

GULP....... I can not believe what i have just looked at

Not far away from good charts there. Once you have low pressure digging into Europe it opens the gap in the Atlantic up towards Iceland and Greenland for high pressure, and we all know what can happen then!

Evaporative cooling should play a part once the heavier stuff arrives

Yes its forecast to pep up now and pep up as it moves in land, anywhere from m4 north according to BBC but to be honest its a now cast situation, some may well be surprised tonight. Light winds and evaporative cooling can come to to play during marginal situations although today's temps there really shouldn't be anything marginal about it the wet bulb temp tonight is the tricky one. All in all il probably be getting sent loads of pics from my bro @mark in brum and il have a sleet fest in wellesbourne Warwickshire but im hoping we all do well out of it

You think that's a coherent signal for milder air? Disagree, its a flat line until the 7th for Aberdeen and then a 75/25% in favor or mild for now but it's as week away and you can see some of the members keep it freezing.

What a beautiful start to winter this is. Its come through the back door this one we all know it. Hindsight is a wonderful thing to look back at and learn and develop but what we have now is not the normal set up and for ones that's new if you wanto learn honestly study through archive's and you will soon figure out all of the famous winters of the past 47/62/77(?)83/90/91 etc to more modern days of 09/10/13/18 95% of them is from charts like we're seeing now. No assurances at all, the weather makes fools out of us all every day but time will tell if we can find the key to holy grail or its to become an incredibly frustrating near miss again!

A great explanation there abit lazy on my part not do my research on this occasion but i have fifa on pause in a champions league semi final I figured most of it out but what better place to ask a question in the best weather forum in the world ?! Thanks guys for all you're replies

Can you explain this please I'd like to understand this fully ? Thanks

A really informative post explaining the PNA pattern i actually found it really useful because i dont really know enough about it although seen it become a big player before. I said days ago about an easterly its primed up for one!

Well on the 06z it has surge of heights from southwest America driving north through Canada where as on the 12z it lowers heights substantially with a stronger vortex more compact which in turn gives us a stronger impact to the Western Atlantic so in theory this fits in better with the idea of stronger jet etc but we know wedges makes sledges but that's more of a beast out there but not impossible.

Wedges make sledges, and this is perfect for that, analysis of t180 hrs is pointless, I'd say any hint of sliders like on the icon, needs to be watched, the likelihood of a stronger block forcing energy under will be the theme of the the next WK in my opinion

One morning of a breakdown been a wk away still and suddenly we're going into a two week period of zonality this place is hilarious.. we have had cross board agreement of very cold hair the last few days but now it's definitely right

And thats our 5%

Exactly its alot like my friday nights walk home, lost, confused and looking for someone to warm me up

Yes you can see the wave interaction with the polar high pressure areas and how it strengthens them, i think as it moves way across the NH its going to interact with Siberia and produce a scandi, not saying we will get in on the action but high pressure to the north is the rule of thumb atm and the effects this can have moving forward is interesting to say the least! Most interested i've been in years!

Interesting indeed