Severe Siberian icy blast

So the cold spell hasn't arrived yet but all the talk is about a breakdown fri ? Could it be the models are overdoing the zonal flow, no wedges or deflections will be sorted yet anyway.

I wasn't having a go buddy it just baffles me unless its just abit of fun but ppn charts outside t96-120max is just a waste of time because there's zero trends on a miniscule level at that range.

But are you even taking the time to talk about a chart so far away?! Surely the focus has to be on the reliable and looking for hints of change or not in the early stages. Posting a ppn chart 9 days away is as much use as trying to cook without a cooker.

There's just no point at all at analysing charts regarding a break down when the models have been finding everything too much with little to know agreement, but the cold is coming. People obsessing on a breakdown before its began is baffling but each to their own... Anything removing heights and cold with ease i suggest caution. We've got some new dater flooding into the models with the fresh influx of spikes in background drivers, further +MT events , favourable wind influx pushing north from the tropics and a high amplified mjo should keep us all interested but its draining in this place every morning people obsessing on every model output even read a few posts saying basically what cold spell, it's all abit pathetic tbh that particularly with the morning blues people making comments based upon a chart thats 192 hours away when we can't even get it right for 4 days away! A relaxation around the last 5 days of the month or so maybe but can see a snowy breakdown and a temp blip in conditions before renewed bouts of wave breaking keeping the jet amplified but pushing south and another 12 rounds for the mighty vortex that's been knocked from post to post this year already and with the El Nino imprint one of the big drivers a back loaded winter looking very interesting in deed!

The 12z highest pressure point waa 1045 The 18z is 1040 ?

To everyone constantly moaning about lack of snow in the south, we want to keep the cold spell in place, otherwise after 3 days warmer air moving in from the southwest putting the entire thing in jeopardy. Yes short term loss for longer term gain, Plus features won't be picked up yet accurately, but enjoy the ride its a marathon not a sprint

I just have a sneaky feeling this year could be some special. Reading it all in depth is mind boggling to see how the whole planet is stunningly made the intelligence and attention to detail behind our very obsession is unreal. What was 1947 ? El nino? That was a backloaded winter wasn't it?! Il get my coat!

I have to say after just viewing the 18z i haven't read the forum either since 8pm but the gfs run is on a merry road to know where it hasn't got a scubbie mid term to later on. But there's alot happening at the moment and there's know way the mods have it all figured out, over doing low pressure signals blowing them up is unlikely, a more southerly track will 90% of the time become the form horse, the tropics leading the way in what could be a blue print to use moving forward, its so fascinating I'm late to bed and early to wake up and im blaming you lot It really can be one of those years

No way as if. Bet you find you're self in a dilemma?! On one hand you want chaos as a snow lover yet on the other hand you have to drive im guessing from the airport lol?!

Thanks mate i had a few years off the place and im very rusty! Thanks

Well a difficult read particularly when im learning alot again now and understanding things so much better but with that comes an obsession to read carefully every word because its part of my learning process but when i haven't got loads of time it really come up at wrong time for me but everything has been put on hold!!! I need to understand the abbreviations used, gwo, glam, aam, annular mode. I understand the geography and science behind it but i need a better understanding on it all if im taking my journey seriously. Any references greatly appreciated Cheers Shaun

I've heard its going to be very wet around Birmingham and quite unusually snowy around Warwickshire so yes you will be getting wet and il be building snowmen with you're nephew and niece!!! *Don't remove it's humour between my brother and me!*

Yep I'd prob say the same re ratings but the gfs is wild always has been, good at picking up new trends but really over reacts to others but at least we're in the game this year its keeping me interested at least!

The UKMO 12, has to be top 5 easy nicest set of charts iv watched come out, absolute belters. Whats the verification stats for icon in comparison to the gfs anybody know? And how long have we all been into it because its only been big in hear for the last 2 years max i think?! But icon i have to admit im enjoying the flirt you saucy mare just keep showing us the goods please!

The removal of heights over greenland and obsession on bringing everything from the azores low and then higher heights from Spain goes against teleconnections with so much phasing up north losing the northern hemisphere profile with 36 hours or so just wont happen. The low pressure will be shunted south with each run id be surprised to see it touch the south coast. We need cut off highs and cut off lows to keep things clean with as little phasing as possible id say give it a few days and we will look less messy and calm nurvs lol

I have just posted in the model thread about this, tbh i have a sneaky feeling a swathe of England are going to get caught out later, the ppn is Belgium crossing the channel looks organized and long, get the sea into the mix and should start to move in land later but im anticipating alot more than currently modeled. Im pretty sure that's tied up in the colder uppers

What i can say is there's alot of ppn towards France and Belgium now crossing the channel i think tonights going to be alot more active than people think

Yes lol but apparently that wasn't one according to rather a blunt response but i remember the bbc1 weather talking about this polar low coming down Northern England very intense only about 2 hours worth of heavy snow but thunder the lot it was class it changed from rain to snow in a big gust of wind it was unreal

Me in redditch at the time had about 2 inches that froze immediately after and we had mint sledging the next day i was about 21 so 19 years ago

Do you remember the one in 2002/3 one Jan afternoon it swept south bought mayhem to midlands south rushour

They have no low pressure southeast to slide into its high pressure with low pressure to our north for the same time frame 240,

Its struggling to bring everything south because of the stubborn mid lat heights.

The second one just spells battle ground to me, greenland still warm and Europe still cold. Its 14 days away lol

In complete honesty if you're taking things literally at t300 then you're setting yourself up for a bumpy ride, the computer models pick up on a trend and tend to over react to a signal then level out somewhat and its a process of two or three times it goes back and forth but the signal is strong. Northerly blocking and cold air moving south. Leave the detail out for now

From years of experience the models pick up new trends, forcings on a blocked pattern and tend to over react to something new, normally takes a few days to level out sometimes it disappears but they normally find a middle ground once they get to grasp with the scenario