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Nick B

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    Hessen, GERMANY

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  1. Pinatubo's in 1991 was assessed to have brought down global temperatures by 0.5 Deg C from 1991 to 1993 or so. That was a VEI 6 and about 10 times the size of Mt. St. Helens in terms of ejecta, ejecting its ash up to 34km (21 miles) high at its peak, well into the stratosphere. Pretty substantial. Would be nice if nature could display without threatening peoples' lives, homes, livelihoods and also local ecosystems, however, events of this magnitude are always going to leave casualties. Impressive but sadly catastrophic too.
  2. Very unlikely. This would need to be VEI 6 (+) and ejecting the plume well into the stratosphere. Kilauea is not likely to meet those criteria.
  3. No point in moaning about the weather - it's not going to change it. The only thing which can be improved is how you view it. Almost all weathers to extremes can cause harm in some way - heat, cold, not enough sunlight, too much rain, not enough rain, ice, deep impenetrable snow, hard frost, wind etc. etc. Luckily, for our part of the world, few of them last for any really appreciable length of time (up until now in this historical era). Some of them could even be mitigated to some extent if there was a reasonable functioning system of governance in place (fairer system of fuel payments, long term water use planning etc.).
  4. Other possible effects of lead too: http://journals.plos.org/plosmedicine/article?id=10.1371/journal.pmed.0050101
  5. As a layperson, I'd say those are both possibilities to some extent, in that several recorded SSW have occurred, however no two are that much alike. So, yes, perhaps a difficulty for those who have to write the programming for the models is how much emphasis to give the myriad of factors when there is limited data from previous events upon which to base those emphases.
  6. Are you referring to the -24 core some 400 miles east of Moscow?! (just checking!) :-)
  7. Sorry to hear your news, Fred. I don't post here much, however I am sure that your dad appreciated your support while you were there and that is what matters.
  8. I'm not blue, obviously, but if that pattern were to verify, here's how I would see it play out... That Azores HP is (from that point, I stress) looking to push into Europe. It does not appear to be a retrogressing pattern - there is too much energy coming off the east coast of North America.. However, with a little MJO help, the jet may yet soon afterwards (3-4 days perhaps) buckle underneath into Iberia and allow the HP to build into Scandinavia from that point, while the lobe of PV sitting over Siberia progresses just a little to the east (it may retrogress later with enough jet buckling). With a strengthening Arctic high and a buckling jet assisting by sending energy into the Med, a significant cold pool is then able to flow down through Scandinavia and build into E/NE Europe. That is the only route to a lengthy cold spell I see currently (from that scenario!), apart from transient coldish shots from the W/NW.
  9. Possibly similar discussions in nature to the ones they were having in November 2009, where I guess the background signals maybe didn't agree locally (well, actually for large chunks of Europe?) with their global probability maps? All finely balanced and nuanced, I guess... and at the end of the day they have to carry the can for what they say publicly. We're only covering a small area of the globe. Their model here deals globally, though of course, effectively small changes to the whole can bring big local impacts, meaning much more to those based here!
  10. Found the following site for charts recently, might have been flagged elsewhere but it's an excellent resource for charts. If you don't mind using a translator, you'll find almost every parameter you could hope for (though the key is knowing what to use when... e.g. for general outlook up to maybe 120-212, dependent on dear old Shannon E., standard 500 geopotential: https://kachelmannwetter.com/de/modellkarten/euro/europa/geopotential-500hpa/20171119-1800z.html for the next day, determine whether you might see white stuff, there's a whole host of parameters to choose from, such as 925 temperature: https://kachelmannwetter.com/de/modellkarten/euro/europa/temperatur-925hpa/20171117-0900z.html, probability of heavier precipitation: https://kachelmannwetter.com/de/modellkarten/euro/europa/niederschlag-ueber-10mm/20171117-0000z.html , dew point: https://kachelmannwetter.com/de/modellkarten/euro/europa/taupunkt/20171117-0000z.html etc.etc. Enjoy
  11. I think it's been mentioned before but key to almost all lasting cold setups for the UK as a whole is generally going to involve a lowering of heights over the continent. As soon as the deeper blues on the 500mB charts are modelled as appearing for a reasonable length of time, centred somewhere around N. Italy, S. Germany, Austria, Czech and S.E France, then the UK is in with a much better shout for a lasting cold spell. This will generally hold true whether it's via a Greenland or a Scandinavian high. Situated here in middle-ish Germany, that happens to be what I am looking out for too - UK and Germany will both win when that occurs. As long as the yellow concave shape is showing in any way over Europe, we're on dodgy ground. The recent depth of cold in the ENSO state, somewhat unexpected only a few weeks ago (-0.5 to -1.0 was on the cards, now looking like a solid -1.5, albeit largely on the Eastern side), may throw a spanner in the works but can be overridden if other factors are strong enough (the MJO is not looking like helping us out, AAM will be low). Several factors were working against a cold North Western Europe in the heart of winter last year and right now, we are still in Autumn. I have a feeling we may have to grit our teeth through an extended period of zonal weather, however that does not mean it's necessarily going to be mild all the way. I'd like to continue to see some WAA putting a bit more stress on the PV as well as getting the cold a bit closer to this part of the world. That, for a more substantial return later, rather than a watered-down attempt now (if you'll excuse the pun).
  12. https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2017/09/170920100043.htm Gravity waves influence weather and climate Gravity waves form in the atmosphere as a result of destabilizing processes. The effects of gravity waves can only be taken into consideration by including additional special components in the models. (Goethe University Frankfurt)
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