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Nick B

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  1. Pinatubo's in 1991 was assessed to have brought down global temperatures by 0.5 Deg C from 1991 to 1993 or so. That was a VEI 6 and about 10 times the size of Mt. St. Helens in terms of ejecta, ejecting its ash up to 34km (21 miles) high at its peak, well into the stratosphere. Pretty substantial. Would be nice if nature could display without threatening peoples' lives, homes, livelihoods and also local ecosystems, however, events of this magnitude are always going to leave casualties. Impressive but sadly catastrophic too.
  2. Very unlikely. This would need to be VEI 6 (+) and ejecting the plume well into the stratosphere. Kilauea is not likely to meet those criteria.
  3. No point in moaning about the weather - it's not going to change it. The only thing which can be improved is how you view it. Almost all weathers to extremes can cause harm in some way - heat, cold, not enough sunlight, too much rain, not enough rain, ice, deep impenetrable snow, hard frost, wind etc. etc. Luckily, for our part of the world, few of them last for any really appreciable length of time (up until now in this historical era). Some of them could even be mitigated to some extent if there was a reasonable functioning system of governance in place (fairer system of fuel payments, lo
  4. Other possible effects of lead too: http://journals.plos.org/plosmedicine/article?id=10.1371/journal.pmed.0050101
  5. As a layperson, I'd say those are both possibilities to some extent, in that several recorded SSW have occurred, however no two are that much alike. So, yes, perhaps a difficulty for those who have to write the programming for the models is how much emphasis to give the myriad of factors when there is limited data from previous events upon which to base those emphases.
  6. On another one from him though, maybe it's better to question rather who is paid to say what... "How does so much [false news] get into the American newspapers, even the good ones? Is it because journalists, as a class, are habitual liars, and prefer what is not true to what is true? I don't think it is. Rather, it is because journalists are, in the main, extremely stupid, sentimental and credulous fellows -- because nothing is easier than to fool them -- because the majority of them lack the sharp intelligence that the proper discharge of their duties demands." Both quotes date back
  7. From H. L. Mencken, a fellow American... "All of us, if we are of reflective habit, like and admire men whose fundamental beliefs differ radically from our own. But when a candidate for public office faces the voters he does not face men of sense; he faces a mob of men whose chief distinguishing mark is the fact that they are quite incapable of weighing ideas, or even of comprehending any save the most elemental — men whose whole thinking is done in terms of emotion, and whose dominant emotion is dread of what they cannot understand. So confronted, the candidate must either bark with the
  8. Are you referring to the -24 core some 400 miles east of Moscow?! (just checking!) :-)
  9. Sorry to hear your news, Fred. I don't post here much, however I am sure that your dad appreciated your support while you were there and that is what matters.
  10. I'm not blue, obviously, but if that pattern were to verify, here's how I would see it play out... That Azores HP is (from that point, I stress) looking to push into Europe. It does not appear to be a retrogressing pattern - there is too much energy coming off the east coast of North America.. However, with a little MJO help, the jet may yet soon afterwards (3-4 days perhaps) buckle underneath into Iberia and allow the HP to build into Scandinavia from that point, while the lobe of PV sitting over Siberia progresses just a little to the east (it may retrogress later with enough jet buck
  11. Possibly similar discussions in nature to the ones they were having in November 2009, where I guess the background signals maybe didn't agree locally (well, actually for large chunks of Europe?) with their global probability maps? All finely balanced and nuanced, I guess... and at the end of the day they have to carry the can for what they say publicly. We're only covering a small area of the globe. Their model here deals globally, though of course, effectively small changes to the whole can bring big local impacts, meaning much more to those based here!
  12. Found the following site for charts recently, might have been flagged elsewhere but it's an excellent resource for charts. If you don't mind using a translator, you'll find almost every parameter you could hope for (though the key is knowing what to use when... e.g. for general outlook up to maybe 120-212, dependent on dear old Shannon E., standard 500 geopotential: https://kachelmannwetter.com/de/modellkarten/euro/europa/geopotential-500hpa/20171119-1800z.html for the next day, determine whether you might see white stuff, there's a whole host of parameters to choose from, such as 9
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