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Everything posted by mezzacyclone

  1. as posted above: "MAD thread" lol Plain to see & the fights and anarchy akin to the 5 points in NYC of old will always spark up from time to time High velocity fuelled by the rarity of good model runs that lead to hope of what the vast majority (unlike the old banter that ian b, a pint of mild and mushy etc) wish to physically transpire and what their longing for? Is it not that a SSW (split or daughter vorts), warm 60degree to poleward PCH(polar cap geo heights) anomlies, negative WaFz (strat wind reversal), Neg AO and NAO, MMW (Major Mid-winter Warming, not addressed so far ive witnessed?) and phase favoured MJO etc etc are certainly NOT the minimum concrete tangibles to put the UK in the freezer? can it be labelled a similarity to a microclimate where the majority of locales (C Europe?) bear brunt of the teleconnects with the cold yet us in the UK require much more besides? The GFS "nemesis" does not really struggle with Strat and trop coupling? It handled the recent deep cold in C Europe really well? and as things turn out most on the swingometer have switched to their more zonal pattern anyway as things stand today? I used to enjoy the model thread but now see it as a free for all where little is clear and everyone is expected to be a boffin with scant regard for decency at times and where their used to be debate on pro , (SACRA lol) anti and neautral cold weather then these days its massively weighted in the pure cold fans majority? I have no real motive for this ditty? But the general air has changed massively over the years, but is that in itself due to NW popularity increase? anyways, may banter reign, though the models fall (sidenote: this view was posted prior to any 12z data output? but 168hr+ is a sinister drug )
  2. Lots to eyeball but I`m interested in ECM migrating the SH SEwards over to Caspian sea/Kazakstan (although it forms a weak ridge over Finland midweek?) or the GFS holding its lat yet moving Ewards to C Russia? Either way an inevitable mobile return next week is 60/40? WRussian/C&E European cooling is always a bonus this time a year? hello again everyone btw
  3. CNN are continuously covering now, (observers saying saving grace is low tide landfall but range in NE gulf is insignificant anyway with <3ft of datum?)
  4. agree, still ne E turn? 4 sooner or later before landfall? (GOM cookin pot in its optimum)
  5. hot (pink) towers prior to 7mb drop?,(lost a good old link to accurate fast strato temps) apols as above 951mb remark is NOT official therefore suspect? (extrapolated)
  6. 958mb (26.03N 86.42W) prev dropsonde was E longtitude of last 951mb ( 26.333N 86.483W) centre so no NE turn as yet? obv alarming pressure RI drop on hunter SW sweep?
  7. (Disturbance 2, 5 day amber) Could develop as TS late next week? dist 4 (rolling off w africa) is really low 5-10 lat but nothing much showing on mod development yet worthy of monitoring?
  8. That was a huge backdown from most of the models and quite alarming given them originally being shorterm 60-72hrs out so just goes to show accuracy is still far from certain right up until showtime, moreso when lots of factors are at play as per-present. (Interestingly the new GFS FV3 test model stuck with a casual 1000-1003mb low tracking east through southern england deepening all the way to west russia before filling, this model also did very well with hurricane florence when the vast majority started out predicting a fish yet the FV3 maintained outputs of a carolina landfall from extremely far out right up to imminent landfall?)
  9. Unexpectedly intensified in recent hours, 85mph sustained. next advisory in just over 2hrs (1700 hrs AST time) "expected to reflect this"! can someone update title to 'cane status?
  10. Next upd highly likely to give official TS status (but already a TD?), surface level circulation, 35kn gusts, CDO more defined etc. strongest winds 35mph in SE sector, WV looks to be popping on latest runs, COC 70-90 south of Praia (CV isle) but light to mod easterly shear is fringing the southern area at 200-150hPa? been a while since anything this far east raised interest with favourable conditions ahead throughout?
  11. 90L is up, & florence sooner rather than later? but big question marks over a split ridge for a big fish/gap shooter or solid ridge keeping this on a lower lat? heightening interest in the caribbean sea areas also?
  12. Latest TWO just out @2pm (noaa local EDT time) upgrades to a "vigorous" low expected to form Thursday off EAfrica coast with 60% 5day formation prospects, Invest with closed LLC tomorrow? Dare it be said the entire basin from W Africa to the TX/Mexico Ecoast is alive and primed?
  13. I dont know what an "infographic" is? but i can offer a simple example that warm cores are tropically derived from high temp waters and thus grow off them while cold core extra-tropicals are maintained through a meeting of warm and cold air masses? Albeit derived from a sub tropical disturbance or not? If thats incorrect or not i dont know? Their must be something in the tutorilas here tho?
  14. Just about all the models are making a fan-tail of the developments now so lets try and follow to see who nails what? (But I`m sure levi will outperform joe as usual?)
  15. So the Atlantics predicted to finally awaken? a few models are progging development of the next wave leaving W Africa late weds/early thurs. (but in all honesty a previous one has currently continued and made it out to 37` W with thunderstorms spawning then relenting repeatedly?) FWIW the new FV3 GFS (experimental, to work alongside the GFS planned for next year) has the next wave exiting as an immediate LLC finishing with a 960mb fish off the east US coast so this will be a good baseline test for it? but it (FV3) receives data later than current GFS so its validity is highly suspect like other lesser models & may well be nothing more than eye candy for what`s been a dull start for the ATL basin.
  16. 0.00mm rain, no cg's/thunder, inclement weather shield 100% active 💤

  17. At lonnggggg last and after 9 years ive finally got A new roof on so it can go "Turbo-lake effect snow" to its hearts content
  18. 940mb 18.283N 74.267W 104mph est avg surf winds, maybe fluctuations under estimating winds? *upd*: 130mph avg surf wind 10 miles of Haiti SW coast near earlier eye landfall.
  19. avg surface winds 130mph 13.417N 73.267W region, 942mb, not suffering much at all despite any EWRC & an embedded centre? Dvorak lowered minimally. Slowing down to start the ominous turn NW-wards?
  20. It amazed me how it almost doubled in strength (wind speed) for 12 hrs from 6pm yesterday evening to this morning!!!! thats Ultra-RI? rinse n repeat through the Bahamas?
  21. Matthew continues to surprise then,,, still under 270degs tracking, deeper & deeper dvorak numbers, only the most recent slight digest of drier air into the NW sector that will be shrugged off, have any ewrc's taken place or has he just tightened up more & more? However i'm not 100% convinced of the plots? as if the short term paths have been incorrect then whats to place trust in the longer term? Matthew was already further West yesterday than the initial models and a lot of folk would very well wish a saving path right into mexico would continue akin to Emily?,,,But the developing trough over the GOM makes this more or less impossible hence northern turn. But in most likelihood of the turn today then: Jamaica's population is 2.8 million, half of which is urban, the loss of life is impossible to judge accurately but Matthew will be the breaking news Monday across the world, according to current trajectory where fatalities could well run into hundreds? Yet it cant be denied that landfall by a major 'cane in the Atlantic GOM etc basin was well overdue?
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