[Model discussion highlights]

Sorry I don't usually repeat my posts but I missed a part off, quite significant so here it is

Not a full post but just showing the latest NOAA 6-14 day charts. Both have a gneral rather cold westerly 500 MB pattern. Not yet showing any signal for deep cold from a northerly point.

The contour over southern England on the 6-10 day is 534 DM which is quite cold so even lower further north. Any ppn in the north would likely be snow and over most hills further south possibly lower at times depending on the actual synoptic pattern.

Add there is a -ve height anomaly over the UK. In spite of the broad westerly at 500 mb this may be a signal for a surface feature to be over/east of the UK. Perhaps picking up on my highlighted original post. Maybe the ECMWF output may show this, I'll go have a look.

Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/99814-model-output-discussion-22nd-jan-2024-onwards/?do=findComment&comment=5027994

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

Sorry I don't usually repeat my posts but I missed a part off, quite significant so here it is

Not a full post but just showing the latest NOAA 6-14 day charts. Both have a gneral rather cold westerly 500 MB pattern. Not yet showing any signal for deep cold from a northerly point.

The contour over southern England on the 6-10 day is 534 DM which is quite cold so even lower further north. Any ppn in the north would likely be snow and over most hills further south possibly lower at times depending on the actual synoptic pattern.

Add there is a -ve height anomaly over the UK. In spite of the broad westerly at 500 mb this may be a signal for a surface feature to be over/east of the UK. Perhaps picking up on my highlighted original post. Maybe the ECMWF output may show this, I'll go have a look.

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

Not a full post but just showing the latest NOAA 6-14 day charts. Both have a gneral rather cold westerly 500 MB pattern. Not yet showing any signal for deep cold from a northerly point.

The contour over southern England on the 6-10 day is 534 DM which is quite cold so even lower further north. Any ppn in the north would likely be snow and over most hills further south possibly lower at times depending on the actual synoptic pattern.

Climate Prediction Center - 6-10 Day 500mb Outlook

WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

 

[Daily weather observations - January 29th to February 4th]

Late to send this today

Dry,variable fairly large amounts of cloud with a red/pink sunrise, the low was 4.6 C. No sign of the strong gusty winds yet, even the large trees are hardly moving here

[Daily weather observations - January 29th to February 4th]

Dry, clear, min shows as 3.6 C but roofs white?

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

 Metwatch

Re your comment about heights over Newfoundland.

That area is often close to or withing the main major trough so all the heights show is that the trough is not centred over that area. It is shown east of Newfoundland on the 6-10 and west on the 8-14.

[Daily weather observations - January 29th to February 4th]

Dry with lovely red-orange sunrise through Ci cloud; a white ground frost with a low of 0.2 C, just missing an air frost

 

[Daily weather observations - January 29th to February 4th]

Cloudy, had 0.2 mm at 0400 on Davis, mild with the current low on 6.2 C

[Daily weather observations - January 29th to February 4th]

Raining here and a low of 7.8 C, rainfall since midnight=0.8 mm

[Daily weather observations - January 22nd to January 28th]

Sunday starts with a lot of cloud, dry and on the cold side with a low of 2.8 C

[Daily weather observations - January 22nd to January 28th]

Dry with variable cloud, even see the start of sunrise at 0700. actual here is 0759, a low of 3.1 C less mild than for about a week

[Model discussion highlights]

Upper air analysis 26 January 2024

One week on so another update; not done earlier as nothing was showing on any of the 3 charts to suggest anything even slightly different from our weather this past week.

NOAA 6-10 has slowly over the past week changed troughs/ridges, or at least, some aspects in the far west. In the UK area/Europe then the European ridging, more especially, the position of the +ve heights has shifted from way east to a more westerly point ( on the 6-10 it is now centred 50N 20W at 210 DM. This movement is not dissimilar to how it developed prior to the last cold spell! I’m not saying this will happen again simply stating facts. The 8-14 edges it a shade further west but, as is almost always the case, with a lower +ve height value.

ECMWF shows a general flow just north of west on its output (31/1-4/2) with a flattish upper ridge over central/eastern Europe being replaced by a flattish trough in much the same place. Its 850 temperature values eventually by day 5 the 0C lying from N Wales to the Thames estuary.

UK Met on their 3 day charts from T+144 30/1-1/2 a mainly westerly flow with an upper ridge finally settling just west of Portugal

So all 3 show a similar upper air pattern developing over the relevant periods of their forecast period.

As is often quoted on the model (forecast) thread, more charts are needed to see what is likely to transpire.

Climate Prediction Center - 6-10 Day 500mb Outlook

WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

UK Met Office Fax Charts - UKMOMSLP Analysis and Prognosis

WWW.WEATHERCHARTS.ORG

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UK Met Office . . Europe and North Atlantic MSLP analysis and prognosis charts

 

 

Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/99814-model-output-discussion-22nd-jan-2024-onwards/?do=findComment&comment=5024623

[Worldwide Mountain & Snow Sports Discussion 2023/24]

Much the same in Wengen, here by the village railway station; fine at altitude (by the start gate for the Lauberhorn

DHO Live Cameras and Weather - Downhill Only Ski Club

DOWNHILLONLY.COM

---

From Wengen and the surrounding area. Time to think about Insurance ? MPI brokers provide members with a discount, click on the link above to obtain a further online discount. […]

 

[Daily weather observations - January 22nd to January 28th]

  @Terminal Moraine

About the same time here for similar according to the Davis

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

Upper air analysis 26 January 2024

One week on so another update; not done earlier as nothing was showing on any of the 3 charts to suggest anything even slightly different from our weather this past week.

NOAA 6-10 has slowly over the past week changed troughs/ridges, or at least, some aspects in the far west. In the UK area/Europe then the European ridging, more especially, the position of the +ve heights has shifted from way east to a more westerly point ( on the 6-10 it is now centred 50N 20W at 210 DM. This movement is not dissimilar to how it developed prior to the last cold spell! I’m not saying this will happen again simply stating facts. The 8-14 edges it a shade further west but, as is almost always the case, with a lower +ve height value.

ECMWF shows a general flow just north of west on its output (31/1-4/2) with a flattish upper ridge over central/eastern Europe being replaced by a flattish trough in much the same place. Its 850 temperature values eventually by day 5 the 0C lying from N Wales to the Thames estuary.

UK Met on their 3 day charts from T+144 30/1-1/2 a mainly westerly flow with an upper ridge finally settling just west of Portugal

So all 3 show a similar upper air pattern developing over the relevant periods of their forecast period.

As is often quoted on the model (forecast) thread, more charts are needed to see what is likely to transpire.

Climate Prediction Center - 6-10 Day 500mb Outlook

WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

UK Met Office Fax Charts - UKMOMSLP Analysis and Prognosis

WWW.WEATHERCHARTS.ORG

---

UK Met Office . . Europe and North Atlantic MSLP analysis and prognosis charts

 

 

[Daily weather observations - January 22nd to January 28th]

Rain overnight, some cloud gaps but still bursts of rain, total 2.6 mm since midnight, also breezy, gust to 27 mph o/night, current low shows 5.6 C 

[Daily weather observations - January 22nd to January 28th]

A cloudy dry and rather cold start; a low of 3.5 C, Ocnl slight rain since

[Daily weather observations - January 22nd to January 28th]

Dry with variable cloud, lowest is 10.8 C, hoping to change battery today but data seems ok again, gust to 29 overnight and 35 late yesterday

[Yorkshire and E England regional discussion - Dec 2023 onwards]

A gust to 37 mph here, close on Sunday and the temperature is 14.7 C

[Storm Jocelyn, Amber ⚠️]

39 minutes ago, Wade said:

A lot of rain showing on the radar from Jocelyn at the minute, heaviest obviously up north but saying that it is quite soggy here at the minute, winds starting to pick up.

Would you be kind enough to put your nearest town in your posts, that helps us all understand the local weather in your area

thanks

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

I am pretty sure that meteorologists and climatologists will probably already be preparing learned texts explaining why certain meteorological parameters are now different to what we remember, in my case, 60+ years ago. Just whether they will be proved correct is something that will be evident in a decade or several decades time.

I'll watch with interest from my 'perch' up above!

[Daily weather observations - January 22nd to January 28th]

Cloudy and dry at dawn but ocnl light rain now, the low was 4.9 C.

No reports now until I get round to changing the battery in the gear outside.

[Model Output Discussion - Cold spell ending - what next?]

56 minutes ago, Catacol said:

 

 

As a concluding comment, we are dealing in probability forecasting. No one will ever get to the stage where we say "in 10 days' time it will snow in London and 6 inches will fall and stick." Nonsense. We look at probabilities. And when dealing in probability a 95% chance does not always land. I see some criticism of the MetO today as well. Really? Those of you happy to criticise forecasting methodology and happy also to criticise (possibly) the most advanced national Met Office in the world and its choice of language are seeking a level of absolute clarity that is unattainable.

If you have something to say that adds to the debate, say away. If your words are designed to tear, rip and demolish - silence is a better alternative.

 

Very well said C, as an ex senior forecaster for the often maligned Met Office much of what you discuss was barely seen in my days, an occasional very complex item in the more learned scientific magazines certainly nothing in practical meteorology. The science of meteorology has come a long way since then but some of you on here, yourself included, absolutely amaze me with your depth of knowledge. Keep going at it you will never, in my view, get a total answer but you will become more accurate as will the professionals. Thanks for all the hard work you and others on here do, way above me much of the time but well done.

[Daily weather observations - January 22nd to January 28th]

Dry with variable cloud and breezy, worst of the wind was last evening gusts to 45 mph, now down to 27 mph gusts. No rain since the early hours with 0.6 mm since midnight; current low is 8.4 C

[Yorkshire and E England regional discussion - Dec 2023 onwards]

Gusted to 45 mph here which is pretty unusual