johnholmes

I do remember when I had red blood that circulated around my body, not any longer, and for sure the heating is on and without any feelings of guilt.

Sure is a cold day, max here 10.7C making it the coldest since 25 April this year.Last Tuesday it was 22.2C and even 4 days ago 21.3C

I think the senior man at Exeter has had a 'funny turn'. I would love to be a fly on the wall at the Met O College as the instructor explains how come has has so many troughs on one chart over the UK, 5 I think it is. Looking at the IR satellite pass over the UK from Dundee Uni it would be a diffcult job to justify his Fax chart! links Fax http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm IR Sat picc http://www.sat.dundee.ac.uk/abin/piccygridhtml/avhrr/2014/10/7/1250/ch5.jpg I tell a lie there are SIX!

perhaps for a similar reason that winter preference folk still look for snow in late May or even early June. Neither, heat in mid to late October or snowfall of any consequence from mid May onwards are probable to any relevant degree. Yes both have occurred, I have seen snow in June and heat in October in my lifetime, but I certainly would not need more than 2 or 3 fingers to count both together!

very true G_F I truly doubt that it will be the answer to the coldies hopes or indeed the end of their hopes. There are just too many questions about this. No one has yet shown a 'null' test hypothesis on it. Its' fine showing how accurate it seems for predicting the -AO for the NORTHERN hemisphere but as last winter showed parts can be in the freezer and other parts the opposite. Even over that until I see solid statistical evidence to back it up I remain rather dubious about its use, certainly on its own. Used CAREFULLY in conjuction with other teleconnections then I would think it another tool to give some reasonable guidance.

Dry but overcast with no wind, a low of 9.2C

Overcast with light rain, started about 0700, a low of 8.3C in the early hours

currently 7.6C down on the same time yesterday! just stopped raining welcome autumn

A fairly sharp drop on temperature after 0755, then 16.2C now 13.9C with just 0.4mm of rain so far; the overnight low was 14.9C at 2400

thanks Steve, quite interesting

I understand it's only one tool in a big tool box used but we all know how much a blocked pattern can help us ?! so very very true If it was so good at predicting the winter months why is it not used by the major computer centres, or maybe they do? What did October last year show, did it predict the mobile westerly which is what the UK and parts of western Europe suffered while parts of NE America had deep cold. It would be interesting to see just what it showed 12 months ago or rather what it showed 31 october with all the October data in.

dry, mostly clear sky, isolated patches Sc and Ci/Contrails, slight breeze from the SSW, and a low of 10.6C quite early on, currently 13.1C

try the Wx Onlime site for air or ground min values? http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/weather/maps/current?LANG=en&UP=0&R=310&TYP=tmin&ART=tabelle&LANG=en&DATE=1412283600&KEY=UK&LAND=UK&CONT=ukuk&SORT=3&SI=mph&CEL=C&UD=1 4 with an air frost and 17 with frost recorded at 5cm above the ground, which I guess is probably the grass min values or their equivalent?

as you say-interesting to muse over

interesting that two totally different models are relatively alike for amounts and areas predicted to be affected.

and another interesting statistic, one I am sure winter cold lovers will relish. I wonder just why this data suggests cold winters, something to do with blocking, but what has caused that? This might give a better clue to the meteorology/climatology behind what BFTV has shown. Also interesting if you look at the current long range computer output from Met, see link below http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/gpc-outlooks/glob-seas-prob that data, fairly consistent over the past 3 issues I think, does not support the BFTV suggestion. But why, surely Met would have what appears to be anomalous warmth and 500mb height anomalies that support this idea? All quite intriguing.

Dry and fairly cloudy (CuSc), very little breeze with the low at 8.9C

re the anomalies, all 3 show similar ideas in the 6-10 day time scale and NOAA has done this for at least 3 days now. A similar consistency also in its 8-14 day outlook. Some thought provoking posts above this as well. I do enjoy reading this type of post so much better than the hype we are almost certain to get come the winter frenzy.

an interesting post there

I find it absolutely fascinating when these kind of numbers come up, we will know how high the correlation is 1 March 2015. Fun to wonder about it and perhaps look at similar types of 'patterns'. Can you post the years both when the correlation occurred please T and when it did not. I am sure more than just me would be very interested to look at them?

my, this is a rare event, me with less rainfall in a month than TM! 13.8mm with 7.8 of that falling on the 6th, much of it after 1700 BST.

The anomaly charts, well the 3 I use, all point to the same idea byt this weekend and then out to day 15 or so, unsettled with an upper low over or close by the UK and the air sourced through much of that time (this is at 500mb) from the Gt Lakes area, so a big difference being felt by all. This especially so regarding temperature levels for the southern half of the UK compared to the past several weeks. How much rain is as always far more uncertain and has to be left to no further out that 72h for a general idea and closer to 24h for a more accurate idea on location and amounts. links to the 3 anomaly charts EC-GFS http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html NOAA http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/500mb.php for interest how close the various models are over the northern hemisphere at 500mb at day 6 http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS/html/new_acz6.html for all the stick it gets at times, UKMO in the lead recently even beating EC.

sorry SR, work done on this idea, with full statistical checks has never revealed any workable link. As your data chart shows the scatter is wide and for each year that 'proves' it there is another one, as you have written of that 'disproves' it. I remember decades ago doing research in the middle of night duties on data over 100 years and it never showed any strong correlation. Nor did the Met O agree with any of the work I showed. A senior bloke at the old main office in Dunstable in those days said the statistical analysis showed there was no correlation. Fun doing it though as I am sure you found.

partly cloudy, dry after rain late evening, no wind and the 'low' was 14.3C

A cloudy misty start but now almost cloudless and no wind, a low of 12.3C