johnholmes

thanks for that I will spend a little time looking first at the link you have given (thank you for that) and those I posted to see what I make of them. Again I will try and get an e mail off to Met although sadly it is so long since I retired I have no direct links into the senior forecasters or researchers.

Interesting that those sets of charts are somewhat different from the links I provided. I have no idea what the link is to those provided by Sebastian. I might e mail UK Met and ask!

I found this link http://blog.metoffice.gov.uk/ perhaps some of the comments stem from that. If anyone has a link to the GLOSEA outputs or comments about them can you post them please? thanks

sorry but I simply cannot see any of that on the charts I have linked to in my last post. Of course we may both be quoting from different data. I have no idea where the data sets I have linked to originate from within UK Met. I thought that was their latest model output. Apologies if I am wrong. However, a word of caution. If the GLOSEA you quote is in fact the latest. Ask this question. How many of these have shown similar temperatures over the last couple or so of outputs. ANY model is suspect if it changes from run to run.

nor do I below is the link to their actual charts that they have issued, make of the anomalies as you wish. However, to me they do NOT suggest much in the way of -ve anomalies either at the surface or at 850mb over the area you show from his post. I suspect we are early into trying to make 2+2 = anything but what it should equal. Just my cynical view of course. Folk already mentioning 1947, from what? I have no idea. still it makes for lots of posts in here and provided we all stay polite to one another it can do no harm really. http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/gpc-outlooks/glob-seas-prob

"Europe also cold now on JAMSTEC! Following UKMET lead. SST shades of 09 in N Atl...more important than nino there" what UK met lead please? The model I saw suggested no cold of any depth either over UK or Europe Dec-Feb?

So the first two idea are out, UK Met with nothing to excite cold lovers and the one above that will obviously be far more talked about than the Met O idea. Be interesting, even this early, come the end of February, to see which this far out was closest. I know where I would put my money if I was into betting.

Cloudy with thick upper layers and a low of 6.8C, dry.

There is of course a difference between the BBC outputs, both model and spoken compared to the official Met O site. Don;'t ask me why but I have posted about this time and again.

likely as good an answer as some of the more outlandish claims we will see in the coming weeks. So another 62-63 winter on the cards from those prone to predict these things. Funny really when one looks at the Met Office Model output, link below for Europe, not a lot of dark blue for either surface or 850 temperatures in the UK area. perhaps its wrong! http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/gpc-outlooks/glob-seas-prob West coast of Ireland or out in the Atlantic look the best bet!

many thanks

An overcast wet start, low of 10.3C currently

And another change in rainfall totals 35 and 29 mm, pretty much back to its ideas over 72 hours ago. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fsgfsmeur.html much of it due to it upping considerably the next 24 hour rainfall.

sorry the link does not work for me=error404 not found?

continuing my check on GFS r/f totals different runs; 06z has 20/10mm It has yet over the past 48-72 hours to come up with 2 runs, consecutive, with totals within 10mm of one another. I am not having a go at the model, just hoping (!) that some who complain in winter at snow predictions being wrong can see it happens all the time. 500mb fairly easy relatively to get the pattern correct, the low 500mb, 18,000ft where most of the moisture is; incredibly difficult to get this correct even 24 hours out sometimes 12 hours. please try and remember this come the winter.

the fog gave way to rain or drizzle at times, currnetly dry and not very warm(!) at 12.8C, more like late October

rainfall on the 00z of less than 20mm (18 and 13 for the two spot locations closest to me)

Dry and damp with thick fog, about 150M visibility, a low in the early hours of 6.4C

apologies, must have been looking at the previous system comments!

17-31mm are the two 'spot' amounts straddling me from the 12z from UK Met they currently have 3 12z Wed Fax positions and depths http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t84 The latest suggests less wind and less deep centre also a touch further SW from their first one

Can I ask where do you get that from please? As the post you linked to suggested NOAA do not rate it that way.

Fine and bright with some sunshine through about 6/8 fairly thick Ci Cs with patchy Ac beneath, a low of 6.6C

rainfall total for here by then now 19-25mm down about 10mm from the predictions for yesterday.

well the next issue at 12 z, decreases it a little but still well over 1 inch for this area.

There are differences in its depth on the 3 main models although they then tend to agree on its depth and track over the UK. I wonder which will be correct and also how close will the predicted rainfall totals be for any particular area. For my area GFS suggests 30+mm by Friday on the latest output. I will, as usual, be surprised if the model sticks with a value around that number. Even more I will be surprised if it is within 15% of that value when it actually falls. Old cynic that I am!