johnholmes

mushy is it possible for you NOT to want the last word about your and other folks interpretations please?

NOAA anomaly charts are pretty consistent and sequential in their upper air ideas but the ECMWF-GFS are less so. I suspect that the ex hurricane is the cause. I would go with the NOAA versions but with less confidence than usual until Joaquin is out of the way. links below http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

Dry, fairly cloudy but some gaps in the Sc allowing sun out at times, no fog (in spite of Met O warning), no wind and a low of 8.4C, currently 11.2C

No fog but overcast, looking at the Davis the cloud came in about 0100 or so, a low of 5.7C then

The fog cleared much quicker, with the sun from a hazy sky rather than sky obscured as in previous days, so ble sky by about 0930.

dry but damp with the 6th day of morning fog, a low of 4.9C

Cantley September 2015 A month with few days of rain but just a touch above average total; totally dry for last 10 days. Mean T above average as was maximum. Last 4 morning’s thick fog, quite unusual for that consecutive number in any month Mean=13.6 (13.0) Avge Max=19.2 (17. Highest daytime=10th with 23.6 and coldest=14th with 14.8 Avge Min=8.1 (8.2) Coldest night=26th with 4.7 and warmest=12th with 12.8 Just 6 days with any rain at all, 7 with 0.2 mm or more and 6 with 1.0 mm or more. The wettest day was 15th with 7.8 mm. No thunder or frost hail or snow but 6 days with fog at 0900 clock time

The suggested track of the hurricane into the N Atlantic is interesting, if only to see how differently the 2 main models deal with it. Not looked at UK Met to see where it has it at 120 and 144.

sadly no reply from the long range folk

anybody watched this-wow-takes 20-25 minutes but inside the space station https://www.youtube.com/embed/doN4t5NKW-k

I gave the link to the series of charts in my post aboveMPG? Not sure that is as definite as you seem to suggest though? deleted as its last year! turned out about correct as well

The last issue of UK Met model output available to us is below http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/gpc-outlooks/glob-seas-prob I have seen somewhere what may be there interpretation of this in their briefing to major users of their seasonal forecasts, not sure where that is on the forum?

Now 6 consecutive mornings with thick fog and a low of 7.2C I cannot ever remember 6 mornings with fog every morning either here or as a kid way before the clean air act.

For what it is worth below is my assessment this morning after going over several times the anomaly outputs for the past 3 days. Hard to see which is consistent in similar way to noaa with its change from ridging to troughing In a way ec is more like noaa but by any means in every way=jury out really, suspect most likely is ridginge/ne of uk and troughing to w with a s of w flow much as noaa but no marked concensus at the moment. The comments refer to post day 5-6 I suspect some of the upper air differences in the anomaly charts may well be due to Joaquin. GFS makes less of it than ECMWF in the latter stafes of the 00z run. e all know just how difficult any model of any type finds it in trying to get an accurate idea on what it will do in the North Atlantic. The latest NOAA advisory, see link below, shows it on Sunday off the east coast of America. So it is in the North Atlantic area by then.The GFS jetstream forecast shows the jet rather fragmented at that time but forcing the extHurricane/Tropical Storm to remain south. The ECMWF charts seem to push it on a more northerly track across the Atlantic. Fascinating to see what actually happens. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?5-daynl#contents

Thick fog with sky obscured, about 150m visibility, a low of 6.3C. This is the fourth morning on the trot with fog, must be something of a record in any month for here?

using the anomaly charts there seems little doubt that troughing will become the main feature in the 6+ day outlook. Again it looks, in spite of day to day variations between one another and themselves, that ECMWF-GFS has led the way for the change before NOAA. To me this is really interesting as over 5 years, prior to this last year, that was a very very rare event. This must be the 4th or 5th time this has happened in the past 12 months. Of course it has still not happened but it looks a 70+% bet this evening. At least the flow is from south of west (at 500mb) although with a height of about 564DM and from the Gt Lakes area and further back from eastern Russia don't expect a heat wave. It also look fairly changeable or even unsettled with a fairly brisk 500mb flow and the trough pretty close to the UK. To me the flow does not suggest any very deep lows developing close to the uk. However, keep an eye on NOAA Hurricane outputs, just one getting into the Atlantic and the models do their equivalent of 'toys out of prams'.

actually see the sun now through the fog, the low was 6.3C

Sky obscured and dense fog again this is the 3rd consecutive day with fog.

we await the 'real' September summary for eastern Scotland from UK Met.

After the severe winter of 1947 when open cast coal mining around the village had to stop, large amounts of snow were buried. In the August there was a picture in the Derbyshire Times of us kids snow balling, the snow only lasted a few hour.

The fog thickened for a time but started to break a bit earlier than Sunday, again almost clear skies now and warmer at 21.0C currently

Foggy again although not as dense as this time yesterday, a low of 4.8C

184 fax charts never verify Can't say I have ever seen a Fax chart that far out, 144 hours is the max that I have seen. Can you post a link please to where you found them? thanks

The fog lifted and by late am it was cloudy with this breaking to half cover lifted St small Cu by 1315, much of the afternoon was sunny and now it is a mainly clear sky with the moon very clear. Not sure I wil lstay around to see the 'red' bit.

An idea of how similar in some ways and yet how different for the ECMWF-GFS anomaly chart this morning http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html both have the upper low about the same place, one=S'ly 500mb flow, the other north of west flow. One has a ridge e of UK and in about the same place the other has a low! Until they stop changing I would not place too much reliance on these two. This especially so while the NOAA 6-10 remains fairly sequential and consistent, see last evening below. http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php If it also starts to switch then forget all 3!