johnholmes

Yes a cold start, but not quite a ground frost with a low of 3.2C, quite thick layers of Ci

dry, cloudy, a low of 9.0C

I made these notes earlier after looking at the NOAA 6-10 day chart noaanoaa on FRI and the 6-10 has reverted back to the idea of ridging/building anomaly heights fairly close to the uk, see below notes from Wed below Noaa 6-10 much as one above but slight increase in +ve heights over uk with slightest indication of ridging e of Iceland towards Greenland; this is increased in both on 8-14 Also on both trough is w of last prediction Missed Thur link http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php Not too sure as it is quite a change over 48 hours but it is supported by the 8-14 chart. As to what effect the very large Hurricane almost on to Mexico will have, who knows, we have to wait for 2-3 days to see how the anomaly charts behave let alone the synoptic models.

for those wanting forecasts this link gives the main 2, MIWIS (ex colleague) and UK Met, you will also find several web cams not just Cairngorm but the other ski areas also. Well worth saving. http://www.winterhighland.info/weather/#Q6

Fairly cloudy, dry, with a low of 4.3C

thank you for your usual up beat report Richard. I do hope you are a little more happy when at home with your family. Life sounds so depressing for you from a weather point of view. Quite often too your comments are somewhat different from other posters in your area. You mention work, just where is that and how far from Aberdeen. genuine interest Richard.

dry with 1/2 cover CuSc, lowest so far is 11.5C so mild

highly unusual for me to do this and I apologise for doing so but it is to show that the anomaly charts, for all the negative comments about them at times, are often the most reliable, if they show consistency, for the 500mb pattern over the 6-15 day times range. post from last evening I think it is fairly clear that starting today the weather is going to be more changeable in most areas, more so the further W/NW one lives, quite windy, looking at the mean 500mb charts which suggest some fairly deep lows at times. ECMWF-GFS are not very 'stable' at the moment but the NOAA output, in spite of NOAA comments about their domain, the 500mb anomaly charts have given consistent charts for several days. Just how the Pacific will play out with the input from typhoons is just as likely to be inconsistent at the surface as a result as it is when Hurricanes/tropical storms, arrive in the N Atlantic. It looks obvious, however the surface actually ends up in the 6-15 day time frame, that more wind (gales-severe gales) will be most felt in the NW and perhaps W as well. NOAA link http://www.cpc.noaa....10day/500mb.php AS to how the models are dealing or not dealing very consistently with surface lows over the next week does make for interesting model watching.

Cloudy with ocnl rain at the moment, total 11.6mm so far, a low before the rain of 8.9C, now on 10.8C

re the above, I am unable to give any reason. It might be interesting if you sent an e mail to them to ask?

I think it is fairly clear that starting today the weather is going to be more changeable in most areas, more so the further W/NW one lives, quite windy, looking at the mean 500mb charts which suggest some fairly deep lows at times. ECMWF-GFS are not very 'stable' at the moment but the NOAA output, in spite of NOAA comments about their domain, the 500mb anomaly charts have given consistent charts for several days. Just how the Pacific will play out with the input from typhoons is just as likely to be inconsistent at the surface as a result as it is when Hurricanes/tropical storms, arrive in the N Atlantic. It looks obvious, however the surface actually ends up in the 6-15 day time frame, that more wind (gales-severe gales) will be most felt in the NW and perhaps W as well. NOAA link http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php AS to how the models are dealing or not dealing very consistently with surface lows over the next week does make for interesting model watching.

the actual phrase was this will perhaps spread northwestwards

thanks Paul, I wondered what was happening as the main site was okay, model output etc.

thanks Paul, a sad world we live in

It seems to do that check each time I log on, 3 times last evening, and would not allow me in; just now another check but then okay and the link worked, last evening let me in one occasion but nothing would open on the forum?

some patchy Sc and Ci but a mainly clear sky, the low so far is 6.0C bottomed out at 5.7C just after 8am, winter is on its way with lowest temperatures so late on.

ditto to above

saying please might help you be given that link mate!

almost claer sky for a change, a low currently of 7.2C, still drifting down.

the anomaly charts, rather NOAA and ECMW part of the EC-GFS this morning, suggest a fairly rounded 500mb trough for the UK and then a broad westerly back to about the Gt Lakes, heights on the 8-14 far south show 558DM so not especially mild as an average although day to day will show variations as we get surface features running through this flow. link http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814day.03.gif

Looking forward to a change in wind direction, at least we should see the sun at times, however changeable it becomes. Sun sightings have been infrequent for the last few days! The temperatures by day should also show an improvement, 13.1C at the moment with only last Monday almost reaching the average afternoon value for here=14.4C (14.6)

Dry and cloudy again, mild with a low of 10.3C

yes the NOAA 8-14 does show the UK under a more mobile 500mb flow. There are indications of increasing +ve heights way up n over n Norway. A couple of days down the line the anomaly 6-10 should be picking this up IF it is real? link http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/500mb.php Even if it does then its influence would be far from clear, if it has any major effect on the UK.

Cloudy once again and feeling damp but no actual rain or drizzle falling, a low of 7.8C thanks to all the cloud

link to MJO for GFS http://www.americanwx.com/raleighwx/MJO/MJO/NovemberPhase3all500mb.gif it seems to suggest that no strong ridging N or NE close enough to affect the UK?