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johnholmes last won the day on December 24 2019

johnholmes had the most liked content!

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About johnholmes

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  • Gender
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    just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Interests
    weather, hiking, skiing, golf, gardening
    Views and opinions expressed in this or any other of my posts are my own

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  1. Not found anything yet but on my mobile Sky News has a WMO shot of the eye in the centre, 2 people killed in different parts of Greece, a brief video of rain and wind on Zakinthos. Found it https://public.wmo.int/en/media/news/medicane-hits-greece Sky News links Storm Ianos: Two dead after 'medicane' lashes Greece and sparks islands emergency Sky News·1 hour ago Atlantic storm season goes Greek after forecasters run out of names Sky News·16 hours ago Hurricane Sally: 'Nightmare' storm moving at just 3mph wipes out section of new bridge Sky News·2 days ago
  2. Dry and mostly sunny but ST on SW'ern horizon, current low is 10.1 C and the ST came in erratically to 3/4 cover by about 0845, still here
  3. 500 mb update Friday 18th Ec-gfs both show large -ve heights and a deep contour low in the uk area couple with gfs showing ridging/+ve heights Greenland area, much less so on ec,but both show lowish contour heights with a flow n of w into the uk Noaa has also gone, last evening for a large jump towards this idea. Not sure about this but wait for a couple more outputs although the 8-14 shows similar. Assuming all 3 models are in the right area then a cool/coldish unsettled spell for the next 2 weeks or so. http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php
  4. Max daytime today is 13.0 C below 24 hours ago! 16.3 C, and totally cloudy if dry since about 0800=yuk
  5. 500 mb update Ec-gfs both show some element of troughing in the uk area, ec the most with gfs showing continuing ridging influence e of uk, ec has slight contour ridging e of n America Noaa takes the general rounded trough over the eastern atlantic/uk area idea with an overall w’ly across n America and into this broad trough Obviously none of them indicate any tropical storm signal, that will be shown on the synoptic outputs with one in the post from mb illustrating what can happen as any get caught up in the main jet flow. So goodbye to our late summer the areas away from the nw have enjoyed. Fairly changeable seems the brief description with just an odd day in a temporary surface ridge. Temperatures mainly around average I would think. http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php
  6. Dry with another summer like overnight low of 14.7 C, some thin upper cloud but the rising sun visible through it
  7. The second absolutely beautiful day, such a pity is is the last such one, and still no rain likely. Max 29.3 C today. Sunshine, patchy attractive Ac at times and again no wind.
  8. Dry with a few patches of upper cloud as the sun gets up, a low of 10.2 C
  9. An update Sunday 13 th Ec-gfs and both are not that different to the previous shown above (Sat), so continuity on charts from day to day and with one another Noaa has ditched the charts it showed from Thursday and Friday to a much more realistic (in my view) idea last evening (Saturday), and much nearer to the other two. I now have a fair degree of belief in the 3 patterns shown by them. That is for some degree of +ve heights W or NW of the UK, possibly starting within the 6 day frame actually over the UK with an attendant surface feature beneath it, then migrating w/wnw with time, and into the 8-14 day period reverting to a more general atlantic type flow. Thus the threat of a flow off the N Sea seems to have diminished, little sign, away from far nw/w of any rain for most of next week, but thereafter a more changeable spell at least for a time. Beyond 14 days=not my area of knowledge. http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php oops, lost part of my edited post I posted befre seeing those from mushy and ba my comments I agree with mushy in them being much better than the 2x and 4x daily synoptic outputs, and for ba I have been aware for several years how they are arrived at but thanks. Some 8-10 years ago I had a very fruitfull exchange of e mails with a forecaster doing those charts after a senior man at, Bracknell as it was in those days, had passed an e mail from me to NOAA. I have not done stats on their accuracy for a number of years but using them every day I see no reason to alter what I found some 10-12 heays ago after checking them over summer and winter that 6-10 NOAA was about 70-75% correct on the UPPER flow and around 60-65% for its 8-14 day charts. Best I shut up and stop clogging up the model thread but above is my summary for the upper and surface for, about 4-14 days from today.
  10. Dry, bright but mostly cloudy, mainly upper layers, muggy with a low of only 14.2 C, looks breezy looking at the trees
  11. I'll just comment on 'best' as in coldest/snowiest. My age allows me to have first hand knowledge of both 1947 and 1962-63 so, as you might expect, nothing since compares to either. A long time ago I posted daily temperatures for Langar, SE of Nottingham, from 26 December to , cannot remember=need to check for sure, end February/early March. Could do again if anyone is interested?
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