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About Paceyboy

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    Tamworth, Staffordshire (83m ASL)
  • Weather Preferences
    Heat, Thunderstorms, Snow

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  1. Thank you for all the knowledgeable input to this thread on this event so far. More patience needed but when significant changes appear in the models it will be at day 5-6.
  2. If ever there was a model run that demonstrates to me that the SSW event is now beginning to show its influence on the trop modelling, its pertubation 20 on 12z GEFS. Shannon Entropy in full swing in that run. There are so many different patterns going through the motions its as if a child has used all the different colour crayons in a drawing and has drawn every random pattern imaginable! When models are all over the place like this then something major is afoot as per previous notable weather events.
  3. Paceyboy

    Model Moans, Ramps and Banter

    We should hope for a settled warm August with some more rainfall. It would be nice to have a decent August for once but doesnt need to be record breaking for lack of rainfall or heat. We may well come to miss the lovely weather we have had. I and probably others have a feeling that if this current pattern holds for many more months we will have to endure a severe winter (not sure what the projections are for Autumn/Winter yet). Thing is it has been the type of summer where a warm, settled but not especially hot airmass has resided over the UK at the time of maximum solar output and hence consistent mid to high 20s day after day. It doesnt technically have to be an extremely cold airmass to create a severe winter in the UK at the right time over late Novemeber to late January. So if we do experience patterns similar to this summer in the form of a continental influence, we could be in trouble with regard to very low temperatures this winter. Not good for farming with the extremes of seasons or the economical aspect for people everyday lives - food prices, energy bills, dangerous roads
  4. I dont know about anyone else but id have much preferred a longer period of deep cold convective weather on a brisk easterley than it to be all over by saturday with a blizzard. I think for this we would require at least a 300 mile shift of fridays low south. Disappointing we could have been seeing ice days from wednesday through sunday. And yes i wanted the best for this spell as it just does not come around often.
  5. I think after 4 or 5 days of deep cold and the channel low blizzard even the die hard fans will have had enough. Serious cold and snow showing from that sunday through to the friday. Will most likely look different by 1st weekend it March, we may be looking at a longer period of cold with retrogression.
  6. GFS 12z ensembles shows operational is one of the milder members for that warm sector for Thursdays band. Mean as 850s of -2/3c for the midlands. And saturdays band actually.
  7. I dont agree. After wednesday it may not continue but sunday to wednesday has trended colder. We will just have to see however upgrades *appear* to be the trend.
  8. The trend is towards colder though Chevron. We have gone from seemingly nothing to at least a 4 day cold spell over 36 hours of modelling.
  9. MattStoke I would not worry as Stoke is in a fantastic place here - bit of high ground in NW midlands. The reason for the potency is not just uppers it is the thicknesses, source of air and cold through the other layers to 500mb. Have you seen some of the dewpoints projected! *currently modelled* Circa -2c max in the day down to Wiltshire over about 4 or 5 days! 850s are slightly higher than the Dec snow showers spell but this time all others factors seem to favour snow to counter the perhaps not so spectacular 850s.
  10. So any modelled Pm blast shows -4 /5c 850s! No snow in that for the vast majority of the population. Waste of anticipation unless you are on a hill north of Manchester. Waste of time and certainly miserable days ahead. Watch the postive teleconnection musings become watered down as we close in on end of Jan. We really need to see a SSW so that we are not chasing the pot of gold until March.
  11. Re Mr Hammond and time: Are we talking about creating dinosaurs or the potential for a cold spell?
  12. Over the last 24 hours or so we have seen constant strengthening of the modelled Scandinavian high , especially in the euros. Ultimately I am encouraged by the timescale at which this is occurring - 120 hrs onwards. As this gets even nearer into the more reliable timeframes i think a significant spell of cold weather will materialise. It has the feel of a classic build up to a synoptic pattern that is quite so rare - the familiar story of its development. It differs from previous(poor) attempts since 2013 in that more robust heights over the scandi region are continually being modelled. 850 temps really only need a day or so of modelled upgrades to become much more noteworthy, it has happened. The failed easterly of Feb 2012 was an example of incredible promise then let down. I would not like to see modelled -10c to -15c modelled only to be let down. As long as things keep trending positiveley tomorrow then i think we will be surprised by what may start to show regarding depth of cold. Finally: ECM 12z De Bilt ensembles really starting to show agreement on the type of frigid weather we are looking for.
  13. I concur that MO update is very encouraging. Gfs is nothing like the conditions they expect all out to 18th jan.
  14. I like watching the development of eaterlies. We do not want to see the perfect easterly modelled at that range as it would just lead to disappointment on here (somebody on this forum said this but not sure who so I wont guess and take the credit from the person if I am wrong) The interest in this evolution lies in its development and over the years in these scenarios low pressure placement and strength of high pressure over scandivia/NNE of us is what determines the depth of cold. Put it this way there is alot more to this scandi high than was modelled two days ago already. Now that we are reaching timescales of 144-200h where it resides currently, it will either sink and we will know it will sink or it can upgrade and strengthen heights. Personally i cant really recall many instances, short time a decade - I know, when easterlies were just restricted to Scotland. On many if not most occasions everything moves south closer to the time, obviously we do not want this to the extreme as the high will sink. If the cold hits us it could only be a 3 day event, currently shown on more favourable runs but the interest lies in potential upgrades or more of a drawn out battleground instead of short sharp cold snap that is over and will set us back another week until another chance arises.
  15. No update to any warnings regarding snow which is amazing considering most of the high res models give accumulations of between 2 - 6 inches for east Wales, central midlands and south/south east midlands by 0600 weds. My elevation is not great, around 80metres here on south staffs/warwickshire border however you would expect bbc and met office to show more than 2 hours of sleet given the models!!