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About Paceyboy

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    Tamworth, Staffordshire (83m ASL)
  • Weather Preferences
    Heat, Thunderstorms, Snow

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  1. MattStoke I would not worry as Stoke is in a fantastic place here - bit of high ground in NW midlands. The reason for the potency is not just uppers it is the thicknesses, source of air and cold through the other layers to 500mb. Have you seen some of the dewpoints projected! *currently modelled* Circa -2c max in the day down to Wiltshire over about 4 or 5 days! 850s are slightly higher than the Dec snow showers spell but this time all others factors seem to favour snow to counter the perhaps not so spectacular 850s.
  2. So any modelled Pm blast shows -4 /5c 850s! No snow in that for the vast majority of the population. Waste of anticipation unless you are on a hill north of Manchester. Waste of time and certainly miserable days ahead. Watch the postive teleconnection musings become watered down as we close in on end of Jan. We really need to see a SSW so that we are not chasing the pot of gold until March.
  3. Re Mr Hammond and time: Are we talking about creating dinosaurs or the potential for a cold spell?
  4. Over the last 24 hours or so we have seen constant strengthening of the modelled Scandinavian high , especially in the euros. Ultimately I am encouraged by the timescale at which this is occurring - 120 hrs onwards. As this gets even nearer into the more reliable timeframes i think a significant spell of cold weather will materialise. It has the feel of a classic build up to a synoptic pattern that is quite so rare - the familiar story of its development. It differs from previous(poor) attempts since 2013 in that more robust heights over the scandi region are continually being modelled. 850 temps really only need a day or so of modelled upgrades to become much more noteworthy, it has happened. The failed easterly of Feb 2012 was an example of incredible promise then let down. I would not like to see modelled -10c to -15c modelled only to be let down. As long as things keep trending positiveley tomorrow then i think we will be surprised by what may start to show regarding depth of cold. Finally: ECM 12z De Bilt ensembles really starting to show agreement on the type of frigid weather we are looking for.
  5. I concur that MO update is very encouraging. Gfs is nothing like the conditions they expect all out to 18th jan.
  6. I like watching the development of eaterlies. We do not want to see the perfect easterly modelled at that range as it would just lead to disappointment on here (somebody on this forum said this but not sure who so I wont guess and take the credit from the person if I am wrong) The interest in this evolution lies in its development and over the years in these scenarios low pressure placement and strength of high pressure over scandivia/NNE of us is what determines the depth of cold. Put it this way there is alot more to this scandi high than was modelled two days ago already. Now that we are reaching timescales of 144-200h where it resides currently, it will either sink and we will know it will sink or it can upgrade and strengthen heights. Personally i cant really recall many instances, short time a decade - I know, when easterlies were just restricted to Scotland. On many if not most occasions everything moves south closer to the time, obviously we do not want this to the extreme as the high will sink. If the cold hits us it could only be a 3 day event, currently shown on more favourable runs but the interest lies in potential upgrades or more of a drawn out battleground instead of short sharp cold snap that is over and will set us back another week until another chance arises.
  7. No update to any warnings regarding snow which is amazing considering most of the high res models give accumulations of between 2 - 6 inches for east Wales, central midlands and south/south east midlands by 0600 weds. My elevation is not great, around 80metres here on south staffs/warwickshire border however you would expect bbc and met office to show more than 2 hours of sleet given the models!!
  8. 12z ICON - west/central midlands light snow intensifying after 9pm lasting till rush hour tomorrow morning. Sorry on phone cant post pic.
  9. I love snow and cold to a point but thats extreme for central midlands. Monday will be horrendous.
  10. Whats happening on the NMM? It shows a -9c monday morning? -3c max for some places. Is that really possible after a slightly marginal event?
  11. Model Output Discussion 01/09/17

    Pessimistic models in the morning as always. I can literally only remember a handful of times over years when they actually showed something better for cold than the night before. They still show decent cold spells but last night were showing a potential prolonged period or even freeze. Background signals seem to be somewhat on our side anyway!
  12. Extremely eventful last night, well done to all those who had storms. The modelling showed we were odds on to see something here on the edge of West Midlands but like with all weather- we never see any! Hopefully we will be in with a chance this afternoon with some high CAPE and good lifted index!
  13. At least this mornings ECM doesnt agree with the GFS trapped low Wednesday to Sunday.!
  14. I was just ranting to my wife about our climate. You couldnt make it up considering where we looked to be heading. Unfortunately all models have picked up on a decline in conditions wednesday onwards. Although this mornings are even worse, the dreaded trapped summer low. I used to welcome plumes but i would take 22c with sunny spells for the next 2 weeks if it was offered now. Cloudy in my location today and predicted all weekend, poor, really.
  15. I can see that cloud to my north west from Tamworth so looking towards your location. I said to my wife thats showing the instability around. She disappointed that we are not currently looking at cooling storms!