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Winter 2021-22 Chat, Moans and ramps thread
UKSupercell replied to damianslaw's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Evening Matt, (and any others up this late!) - bit unrelated to the current model discussion, but as you may remember, we spoke briefly a few weeks ago about the pending late Nov/early Dec weather, likely possibility of snow, and good tyres lol, and I mentioned I was heading to Scotland. So in brief as pos: Drove up Nov 19 and got back to Hants last Wed 2nd December. Did I see snow up there? You bloody bet I did!!!!! First snow saw on the mountain peaks (Nevis range) on the 24th, as I was working my way up the W Highland coast. I then took the Jeep up the Bealach Na Ba mountain pass (google it, it's an adrenalin rush) on the 25th, to scenes of a winter wonderland at the top. Then stayed in a Bothy nearby and walked back the following morning to glorious mountain views and heavy sleet showers. On the 26th I climbed Stac Pollaidh in blizzard conditions and started to almost fear for my effing life 60 mph winds and driving snow in my face, pretty surreal, and a bit nuts on my part but a blast still. 27th I left Ullapool for the extreme NW Highlands and drove through mountaineous winter wonderland scenes. Wild camped on a beach in the sleet, wind then predictably....rain! Then as I worked my way down to the Cairngorms on the 28th, saw more snow than imagined on the 29th near Tomintoul to the tune of near 2-3 foot drifts up to my knees. Never been in such deep snow, and this was days after the Cairngorms had heavy overnight falls. Anyway, I drove some sketchy as hell ice rink roads and went full-on Jeep-skating, but never lost traction once! Total blast. Can't say the same for the VW passat estate some Toyota tried to tow, lorry, van and other few cars I saw out in the ditch! But the Scots are on it when it comes to snow ploughing, they keep most of the roads clear. If anyone ever wants genuine wilderness, natural beauty and isolation - head to the NW Highlands. It's unbeatable in the UK. Even the Cairngorms aren't that remote - plenty of dog walkers, cyclists and big forest tracks everywhere....W Highland coast every time. Over and out! -
Great advice though Matt! I have 3 peak snowflake rated all-terrain tyres on my Jeep, so I should be alright! Went out in the snow we had earlier this year in the South Downs and climbed some ice-rink hills, and gotta say, the car didn't lose traction once, was unstoppable. Having said that....even snow-rated all-terrains are not quite as good as proper winter tyres.... People think 4x4s are what you need in the winter but this is a misconception. Put a pair of michelin winter tyres on a front wheel drive hatchback and the car should handle the snow brilliantly. A 4x4 with summer tyres will perform worse. Although a 4x4 with winter tyres will be unbeatable, of course. Either way, I'll take my chances in Scotland, I know my Jeep can plough through snow, it's more icy hills that scare me....but life's about living, and if we sacrifice freedom because of fear, that ain't an existence I want!
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Afternoon all - so I've been watching this thread intensely for the last two weeks. I initially posed the question a week or so ago, and now will do so again.....given I've now decided to take nearly two weeks off and go camping/hiking in Scotland, from Friday 19th onwards, do you think there is a fair chance I will see some of the white stuff up there in that time?!?! I plan to spend most of my time on the west highland coast, but I will probably pass through the Cairngorms and Loch Lomond/Trossachs National Park too, so will travel about quite a bit alternating camp sites, B&Bs and may even do the odd wild camp!
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Evening all, haven't posted on here for a while, but have been intermittently model-watching and keeping a close eye on this thread! Can someone please tell me: Is there a solid likelihood of dry and crisp frosty weather and/or snowfall - in Scotland from the 17th Nov to end of the month? I am planning to potentially drive to Scotland around the 17th and take perhaps 10 days holiday, wild camp, hike, road-trip etc.... I would have gone end of October when autumn colours are best there (in my experience) but car was off the road being repaired/serviced for 2 weeks as parts took a while to arrive. But I am not keen on going to Scotland if there is a high likelihood of constant atlantic heavy rains and gales, which will just be miserable, especially as I intend to camp/hike. What do you guys reckon?
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Storms and Convective discussion - 16th June 2021 onwards
UKSupercell replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
Yep, what did I say? Right over the South Downs and right on my doorstep. Though I’m in Farnham at pres. Will this produce much though? Hmmm -
Storms and Convective discussion - 16th June 2021 onwards
UKSupercell replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
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Storms and Convective discussion - 16th June 2021 onwards
UKSupercell replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
These two photos were taken a few mins apart. You can see how they’re trying but eventually lose shape and dissipate..... -
Storms and Convective discussion - 16th June 2021 onwards
UKSupercell replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
Have taken many photos here from the Surrey-Hants border last few days but not had a chance to upload some explosive convection and distant anvils yet..... Will keep things relevant to the present and attach a few shots taken literally just now from Farnham Surrey area looking South. Some good convection taking place and hefty towers going up but not 100% the conditions exist to take them above and beyond if you know what I mean! Though I wouldn’t be surprised if something goes pop pretty soon over the S Downs direction..... -
Storms and convective discussion - 1st April 2021 onwards
UKSupercell replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
First time back posting on here since the snow many months ago! Say, East Hants doesn't look a bad place to be at all for tomorrow....but I ain't counting my chickens just yet. We all know that a Kent Clipper is always a reasonable possibility, despite these apparent westward shifts...... Excited nonetheless! -
Model output discussion 10/02/21
UKSupercell replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Where is Matt Wolves with the daily cold sermon?! I typically only comment in other threads during SE snow events or summer storm time, but have been following this thread with my invisibility cloak for ages.... But have much enjoyed the passion and optimism from fellow coldies, particularly Matt commander in chief it seems! Would love to see some more snow before we get stuck into any proper spring sunshine and warmth, as the last cold spell was a bit of a letdown here this far W in East Hants. Am I right in saying the "cold spell" is only going to last for a few days and generally just be cloudy & dry, before the atlantic influences our weather again? Seems there's some great outlooks on various GFS models and ECM but just too far ahead to be certain! -
Few select photos I forgot to post the other day, from the Feb 2021 "Beasterly" (For Kent, Essex and East Anglia, sure!) Taken near Haslemere, Surrey in the South Downs . An immensely cold week it was, and I would know as I was working it! Fingers and toes despite gloves and double socks did not enjoy it.....regardless, here's hoping the cold makes a return! It's February......and the prospect of 17C in a week or too does not excite me! Cheers all
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Always the way of things in storm season! I mean I only moved to these parts a year ago. Lived in chilterns my whole life, and seen many a thunderstorm drift past the house to only have to go in the car and chase. Although last summer was incredible, sure, the midlanders and northerners seem to get the best homegrown storms now and have done for years, but there was one day last mid august which was unbelievable for lightning and rain and I got it all recorded!
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Model output discussion 10/02/21
UKSupercell replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Cheers, as I thought! I think it's great terminology....whoever coined it first, hats off! -
Model output discussion 10/02/21
UKSupercell replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Newbie question here....I lurk on this side of the forum as I enjoy reading everyone's posts and analyses of model outcomes etc.....but can someone tell me, what the "pub" run actually means?! I think I know but I'll let someone answer the question first..... -
Unless you're in Scotland or on Northern Hills and perhaps some other high ground elsewhere (but not in the south I don't think) then no. Believe there is a very real possibility of freezing rain in some central, eastern and northern areas potentially too. I'm not someone that study's models religiously though like some of the gurus on here, but i have checked multiple forecasts for my area and it's all rain here....
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Evening all. Anyone any idea on whether these streamers will hit the Petersfield area in East Hants? They look like they're moving our way but I'm sure they'll be light snizzle or totally dissipated by time they're here. I'm not optimistic, based on this pretty crap week out these parts tbh. Had a light snow shower with proper flakes earlier when I was working outside over Haslemere way, and then on the drive back going SWwards I drove through some light-moderate bigger flakes with very unstable looking convective snow clouds all around me with classic yellow bases. Of course the heavier snow moved Midhurst way right across the S Downs according to the radar....
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Any possibility of snow in East Hants tonight? Woke up this morn to another dusting, more than Monday's too. Very white everywhere but polystyrene really. Half of it was gone though by close of play today, with the slight sunshine we had this afternoon, despite being bitterly cold (I would know, I was working outside in it!) Be nice to wake up to an actual light covering at the very least, something made of actual flakes.....Not that see any chance of any streamers down here reaching these parts "west." Perhaps the weekend will be better.....
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Sweet FA for us in East Hants I assume again, yeah? It snowed literally all day around here today, constant very light snow, with some light bursts with actual flakes in the mid afternoon. Settled well, and minor roads around the yard and on the grass along with roofs, had a dusting. But I'm starting to think you've nailed this week for our parts. Perhaps Saturday and this front from the SW will deliver? What I will say is, this lingering snow in the far SE must be remnants of that storm Darcy or whatever. So far I've seen no streamer down here compared to NE Eng or E Scot.