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dave48

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  1. Have been told elsewhere that this is likely just scud.
  2. Possible oxford tornado, pictures in photography section, would be interested to hear opinions!
  3. Captured these shots today south of Oxford. Possible tornado? I have edited them to improve the contrast. Had a great chase but it was always difficult to keep up with the storms and they quickly out ran me.
  4. Wow, had a great chase today near Oxford, managed to capture a large funnel, possible tornado, pics to come in a new thread shortly. Some amazing storms for sure.
  5. To add to Panayiotis' analysis, ECMWF with the euro4, a touch east. Tomorrow holds a lot of potential, potential for some strong or even severe storms.
  6. Yes, looking very solid, moving quickly too. I wonder how long it has in it.
  7. Anyone got recommendations for good storm watching spots in the south east, east sussex/kent? Looking for a good view over the channel. Not likely to be much use this evening but for future reference. Any suggestions appreciated.
  8. 'Areas of rain, locally thundery, will develop across the warning area during Thursday afternoon, evening and overnight. This will be heavy at times and may lead to some localised disruption. Lightning will be an additional hazard, especially across areas south of Birmingham. Heavy rain may lead to localised rainfall accumulations of 20-30 mm in 1-2 hours, with some places perhaps seeing 40-60 mm in 3-6 hours. This may cause some travel disruption during rush hour this evening. The threat of heavy rain will clear eastwards later in the night, clearing western parts of the warning area by around midnight.' Don't recall the met office giving such a specific mention for lightning frequency before.
  9. In the absence of any other specific forecasts for the UK yesterday, and with estofex giving a no risk area, you played that very well, a superb forecast on a day with just about as much uncertainty as you can find.
  10. Forecast from the estofex team: http://estofex.org/ Tomorrow is certainly going to be a very interesting day. *if* any cells can route themselves in the boundary layer, conditions certainly very favourable indeed.
  11. One rumble! This stuff is going up, ...and down... very quickly. Tomorrow is going to be an interesting day.
  12. Have to say I am surprised there isn't much interest in this too. This looks a very nice set up indeed, lots of potential from tomorrow onwards. (even a very small chance for today up in the north!)
  13. Can't recall a plume with 850 temps this high not providing some solid storms. GFS goes for 20 degrees at 850 hpa which is quite a high figure in the SE. A reasonable chance for many later in the week. These things are always very hit and miss but I would be surprised if this didn't deliver. Hopefully quite widespread.
  14. That's a great shot. Great to see people enjoying some storms. Tomorrow looks good, all the models are agreeing on a few spots, including the south east for some thunderstorms. Euro4 is in agreement too, and that model has been very conservative over the last few days...certainly a good sign.
  15. Apologies if this has been discussed elsewhere, but for those that haven't ever seen it, this really is worth watching. https://www.youtube.com/user/ChroniquesChaotiques They are a group of French storm chasers that have created a series similar in nature to Discovery's 'Storm Chasers'. The production quality is very good (TV standard) and there is some superb photography. Season 1 and 2 are all there, and they are beginning to add season 3 now. You can click to add subtitles in English too.
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