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About -uksnow-

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    15 miles NE of Portsmouth
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    Snow, Storms, Heat, Thunderstorms

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  1. As wonderful as it is seeing precipitation charts for next weekend and the prospect of a few snow showers or even a trough, a quick reminder of what was showing for today, this time last week should be noted, to what is actually verifying. Take a look, given the fantastic inputs from the more knowledgable on here of the background signals, we stand our best shot at something to salvage this tease of a winter within the next few weeks... I look forward to comparing next Mondays output to what is currently progged by the models
  2. And so our Scandi high wheel of fortune spins to deliver at day 10 - Agree with what NS is saying, a little help from the MJO with an increasingly better upstream picture may eventually land us a bullseye...
  3. UKMO @168 - Also a corker, low off the NW corner of spain, further east than the ECM so less chance of it swinging down to the azores a la ECM at 192, thus propping up our high.
  4. Quick question to anyone, what is the 'GFS Legacy' option on the GEFS suite drop down bar? Is it the ENS of the para? cheers
  5. GEFS 06z mean is far better than the 00z suite, and the control looking much more ECMesque with regards to our second shot at greenland height rises.
  6. Forgive me if I'm wrong, but could our problems with the ECM actually start as early as T72/96hrs, with the placement of the 'supporting' low in the mid atlantic. Comparing the big three, ECM has the deepest and furtherest west of the lot, thus backing up what @Singularity proposed earlier about the 'over amplification' of the ECM, deeper low in a more S/SW position = more phasing with energy of the low running up greenland, and less so with the descending scandinavian low pressure - just a thought.
  7. Even with 51 members, EC is going pedal to the metal with blocked Atlantic at 240 compared to the GFS.
  8. Please not that saga again! We shall see.
  9. UKMO goes the way of the ECM, more amplified than the GFS - this is far from resolved yet, I think it'll be tomorrow night or christmas day before we know how the low in the atlantic will behave.
  10. And so the drama is dragged out further, 18z 'revenge of the block'. The question is, is this an over-reaction to a slight change in jet angle, or the tomorrows trend?
  11. Fantastic GEFS mean at 192hrs, reflecting John Holmes' anomaly charts, gravity of high pressure around southern Norway. As far as we should be willing to look right now.
  12. What was that? The two biggest winters didnt start until after Xmas? Nothing to see here! Enjoying the continuity of the GFS, makes up for the poor ECM outputs we've had to endure lately. Let's hope the more festive theme can be picked up more uniformly over the next couple of days..
  13. Model Output Discussions 12z 30/11/16

    12z ecm ensembles for Zurich see a further lowering of the mean, and a nice clear cluster of colder runs gaining momentum as well... Patience (Yes, more.)
  14. Model Output Discussions 12z 30/11/16

    Pretty uninspring ECM mean tonight, but the spreads show the potential at 144-168 for a greater window of ridge building perhaps -
  15. Model Output Discussions 12z 30/11/16

    Hi Ian, Any hint on whether that sits from Atlantic/Polar maritime or something more blocked? Cheers