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Everything posted by virtualsphere

  1. Yes, worth remembering we went from Feb 1997 to Jan 2010 without a CET below 3C and since then we've had 3 in 2010 alone, plus March 2013 and Feb 2018. Some of the last few years have been poor for colder weather but we're not quite at that point yet. Interestingly, before the colder period between 2009/10 and 2013, the milder winters seemed a lot more anticyclonic than the recent period of milder winters which has seemed a lot wetter / cyclonic: 2007/08 and 2017/18 being the exceptions to both of these.
  2. Based on your Jan & Feb criteria alone, the only years I can see where Jan > 5.9 and Feb < 3.4 are 1682, 1736, 1875, 1932 and 1983. Dec 1931 was 5.3 which is close... Dec 1735 was 5.4 - I think that's the closest example but hopefully someone more familiar with the data can confirm.
  3. Strangely it works on my laptop but not on my mobile. You could try this, it should be free to read. https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.2782
  4. Another one to add? Eleven-year solar cycle signal in the NAO and Atlantic/European blocking (2016) Error - Cookies Turned Off RMETS.ONLINELIBRARY.WILEY.COM
  5. NMP - North Magnetic Pole? Is there a link between this and the polar vortex positioning, or is your reasoning to do with other factors? Thanks
  6. Some lightning activity over Ireland & approaching the UK which looks to be associated with the squall / cold front: Eldingar við Ísland BRUNNUR.VEDUR.IS
  7. After 3 consecutive 200mm+ months here (the first time since Nov 2015 - Jan 2016), only 142mm this November so far, making it the driest month since July. Not many dry days though - lots of drizzly light rain. Autumn on 688mm, wettest autumn I've recorded, but still some way off the 978mm recorded in winter 2013-14 and 970mm in winter 2015-16. Annually the wettest year since 2016 here and only 70mm required to be wettest since 2015. Very unlikely to be wetter than 2014 or 2015 (would need another 470mm).
  8. Not sure if this has been posted before - prediction of SC25 using a solar dynamo model https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-018-07690-0 Their prediction range indicates cycle 25 will be similar or slightly stronger than the previous cycle (but article was written back in May 2018)
  9. Just a hunch but I reckon we've some way to go with this minimum yet. Bearing in mind the first SC24 spots were recorded in Jan 2008 ( https://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2008/10jan_solarcycle24) & looking at a graph on the site that @Yarmy posted recently at http://users.telenet.be/j.janssens/SC24web/SC24.html#RSC24 it seems that SC24 didn't really pick up until 2+ years later into 2010. Given SC25 is predicted to be similar to SC24, if the minimum follows a similar curve then it would be nearer 2021 before we really see significant activity. This would tie in with NOAA's forecast issued earlier in the summer: https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/news/solar-cycle-25-preliminary-forecast
  10. This is a very old article - and behind a paywall - but the map on the front page shows the frequency of thunder in various UK regions between 1930 & 1960 which might be of interest to anyone wanting to compare to now? https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-3-642-85294-7_115 The link to the solar cycle is also interesting given we're now in a period of lower solar activity.
  11. When was your footage taken? I'm in Carms and there definitely seems to have been a decrease in the frequency of storms over the last 4 - 5 years. 2014 was the most active year for storms I can remember here with 14 days of thunder heard, compared to 4 last year, 2 in 2017 and none so far this year. I think the period 2005 - 2014 was the most active period, especially 2005 - 2009, but many of these were winter storms where the lightning wasn't that frequent. The biggest storm I can remember was an overnight event around 2005, probably an MCS, and several storms in succession on 9 November 2008. Oct 2014 & Nov 2009 were both very thundery. I remember very few storms growing up, so my perception is that storms were more frequent here in SW Wales between 2005 and 2014 than in the 1980s and early 1990s, although we had some in May 1992 and I remember a daytime summer storm when I was a kid in the 1980s which was quite severe. I was living in London towards the end of the 1990s so it's certainly possible that period may have been more thundery back here.
  12. Nice and sunny / warm here today, if we keep this up for the next 2-3 days then this month is definitely better than 2012 for me, probably better than 2007 & 2008 also. I think conditions have been worse in central / eastern areas though it hasn't been a fantastic month by any means. Still, as a hayfever grass pollen sufferer I'd prefer a wet June & a nice August when I'm off work and the kids are on holiday. Not that we've had that combo in recent years!
  13. 35.6C next Thursday, somewhere here in Wales (why not!) near Aberystwyth
  14. June (and the rest of the summer) 2012 was abysmal here - 232mm in total. We're on 118mm so far, so there's a chance we could exceed the 2012 total but it will take the second half to be nearly as wet as the first. I was only 13 in June 1991 but remember it well, my birthday was on a Saturday, and as '92 was a leap year, the only weekend birthday I had for quite some time - and it rained all day from start to finish. At least we had the fine weather later in the summer that year, a lovely warm school summer holiday - hoping for the same this year!
  15. For me here in SW Wales... Best / worst: January 2010 / 2014 February 2010 / 2014 March 2012 / 2018 April 2011 / 2012 May 2012 / 2015 June 2010 / 2012 July 2013 / 2012 August 2011 (not great but the best of a bad bunch!) / 2012 September 2014 / 2017 October 2016 / 2014 November 2016 / 2015 December 2010 / 2015
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