La Bise

Stephen, part of me find the excitement for potentially lethal weather events ghoulish. It's not to say that an interest for those things denote a warped mind but sometimes I feel uneasy at some reactions. Just something that prays on my mind on occasion on here. I do take risks too, I like scrambles up rocks without protection or camping in perishingly cold weather on the hills so I understand you argument about preparation and acceptance of the consequences. "Accidents don't happen, they are caused" still is tripe though, too many disagreable assumptions are contained within that short sentence.

That's rather trite nonsense Stephen, accidents do happen, that's the very definition of the word and lot of people have to be out for work, essential trips, etc and you can apply all the commonsense you want, it won't prevent a tile or a tree branch falling on you. I have no desire, hidden or otherwise to see 100mph gusts at street level.

Thank God for any downgrades, I enjoy a good windstorm, even when up in the hills (it's quite fun as long as you don't have the chance of being blown down the mountain...) but that kind of monster would bring way too much destruction. Splendidly wintry up Kinder way yesterday, I love that crunching noise you get when walking on deep snow....

Off to Edale and up Kinder tomorrow, looking forward to a nice wintry hike. If the mountain does not come to you, go to the mountain said a wise man...Otherwise you could always moan about the lack of snow, on the internet

It's like reading a Scientologist discussion board...

What exactly are you trying to say, that NW is deliberately issuing a forecast with dud information to keep traffic on the website?

With what you know about their approach to weather news, have a think next time you read a story about, say, immigration, the EU or "the youth of today" in one of those rags...

Splendid on Derwent Edge today, sunshine, a fresh breeze that gave me my first cold chin of the season and the remains of the morning inversion (which I missed as I pitched in the valley rather than the tops due tardiness on my part...grmbl). Cold night all told, down to 5c (Edale Vale), bad idea to take the summer sleeping mat... Ideal weather for the outdoors. Can't wait for zonality to start...

All aboard the zonal train!

Well, GP pretty much confirms my concerns. Being a hill-walker, I will come across some wet snow at some point, I doubt any of you will see a flake anytime soon. Zonal is coming back, anyone who sees potential cold is a very optimistic chap.

Nothing indicates there would be something better replacing the high though, if the Atlantic pushes through, it's SWlies all the way and with them there is zero chance of anything seasonnal (unlike the chance of some inversion cold with the high in situ).

Glad you enjoyed my home town

Isolated Frost, Geneva avg day/night temp in Jan is 1c, 24c in July...I like that! Do bare in mind autumn in gva is weeks upon weeks of grey skies under inversion clouds but you got mountains nearby to go up to gaze at the sun and the huge "fog sea" above the lake and the city.

I think you might be confusing Shetlands with Scilly... !

Excellent, thanks GP, just published something along those lines yesterday for my readers...Glad to see you in agreement Inversion cold should prove a handy exit door for those who predicted severe cold coming at some point in November -"Look, it's ice there!" Models - groundhog day, just copy and paste any comment for the last weeks. The pattern is there to last and I fear what will replace it is zonal.

Polar maritime are handy if you like walking in the high place of the NW (which as it happens, I do...so I would have my fix of wintry weather up there) otherwise the only cold weather you'll get is thanks to an inversion (if we take into account the two likeliest scenarios thrown by the models).

A nice day for walk in the dales of the White Peak, atmospheric mist late in the morning leading to hazy sunshine. The smell of damp grass, the faint whiff of rotting leaves and vegetation and a fresh breeze when we topped up after leaving the valley floor. A lovely autumn day. Walking back to Hartington, at dusk, the cold damp air quickly had us zipping up our jackets and the smell of woodsmoke in the air was a last sensory add-on.

I agree, good meta-analysis there Iceberg. It's exactly the way I look at things myself, not having the skills to do so myself. It certainly gives me a better idea who is day-dreaming and who is onto something when it comes to LRF.

I am a bit at loss as to the thinking behind those "pattern reset" wished by some and how zonality would be a step towards a colder setup? It's not as if we don't have countless examples of how entranched that pattern can become with nothing wintry on offer bar the odd wet snow shower on top of the highest hills.

Oh same here, I do not want a zonal setup, the current setup can always lead to inversions which are lovely rather than mild rain and wind which leads to nothing but more mild rain and wind (pm incursions are pointless most of the times unless you fancy a bracing hill walk in a snow storm,which can be fun...)

Re GP comments on the Model thread...Is the outlook for December mild as in repeat and rinse of the current November synoptics or do we switch to a more zonal setup. To me it seems we stay in the situation of being piggy in the middle but...

If my interactions with work colleagues about forecasting are a guide (and I'm really not much of a nerd about it...), people found the whole nitty-gritty side of it an unbelievable bore although they like the charts as they look colorful. I doubt they could have made a programm to keep the hobbyists interested without losing the interest 95% of the general public...They also found my monologues about backpacking tents very weird but they enjoy the pictures...

A timely reminder we are in November today, up on Bleaklow in the Peak District. Sun or no sun, it was quite nippy up there with a cooling breeze. Last part of the walk after sunset was with insulation. Gritters out on the roads and a lovely wintry sunset added to the whole thing. Lovely.

Not that sure Aaron, I'd put more money on places like Edale, surrounded by hills and where wind should be nil. Shap is quite exposed to any breeze. Then again, cloud cover could scupper that...

I'd expect the Express to blame immigrants for a failed forecast...They do for everything else after all... Sometimes I wonder who reads the Express...