NorthernRab
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Posts posted by NorthernRab
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6 minutes ago, Speedbird said:I so hope you're correct - and hope that i'm not too close to the coast to join in the fun !
Either way, exciting times ahead . . .
When air in January is coming from a Scandinavia where -40°C is occuring, I don't think you need worry about being near the coast. Quite the opposite in Inverness streamer events.
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13 minutes ago, Jason M said:Well although were still at day 10!!! you can't argue with the consistency of the last three GFS runs. Very rare to see such similar charts churned out so far out.
Building blocks are in place a couple of days before around day 8, which is a positive.
No excitement from me yet as still much too far away but a slight twitch of one eyebrow maybe
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I would say that from a Scottish perspective, we will be at day 7/8 come the morning where the real turning point takes place.
In my neck of the woods, these are genuine Nirvana charts, producing copious amounts of snow from the NE at a perfect angle.
Which is why I personally won't be getting excited until Sunday night - at which point, I'll be glad I booked off the week of the week commencing the 15th as I'll be skiing most days.
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I have to say as a Highlander I'm slightly scratching my head at some of the comments on here. We're a wee island encompassing three countries (setting aside the potential for Ireland) and while I understand those in the likes of Kent might be a bit disappointed, this looks set to potentially be a historic weather event. Furthermore, such an unstable and unpredictable low will produce surprises further south should it come to pass.
Looking forward to further clarity and consensus over the coming days but those in the south shouldn't be ruling out sudden shortwaves and surprise events.
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14 minutes ago, swfc said:
Seems to be causing a bit of rutting this subject
Anyway all will be revealed shortly 
That has a very different meaning up here so I sincerely hope not.
The BBC seem to be firmly backing the ECM, not even mentioning any ambiguity, which I find a bit odd.
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18 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:
The main problem with any amplified solution being shown by models (UKMO), is a question of where that forcing is coming from?
It’s not coming from the MJO given it’s current low-amplitude which favours more of a mid-latitude block, so my question is; those hoping for an amplified high & proper northerly, where is the forcing to allow for that?
Late autumn North Atlantic Tripole SST?
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4 hours ago, SW Saltire said:A horrendously poor screenshot but I don’t even care. Winter’s coming! (It has already arrived on Cairngorm it would seem)
Update
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Matron!
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12 minutes ago, snowidea said:
I don't know unfortunately. It looks like stacks of pancakes.
I have a mate who's into foraging I'll ask him
Looks too orange to be hen of the woods so I'm thinking maybe some chicken of the woods that's passed its prime due to colder weather.
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5 hours ago, snowidea said:
Is that chicken of the woods? That's a monster find if so!
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35 minutes ago, Ravelin said:
Amber warning now our for areas in the NE, from 21:00 tonight through 14:00 Sunday. Looks like I'm just inside the new warning area, and I have to go to Westhill with my 16yr old tomorrow morning.
Looks like the rivers Ness, Findhorn, Nairn Spey etc are next then.
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1 hour ago, NorthernRab said:
30 flood warnings out nationally already.
Up to 43 in an hour.
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The river level charts are giving me covid flashbacks.
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30 flood warnings out nationally already.
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37 minutes ago, Halfamilefromnowhere said:
Cut across to M1 then up before coming off Chesterfield or Matlock depending on conditions. Minus 15.9C up here and around 22cm snow since Monday so should be tad milder down there
Sunday/Monday are going to be very fun for you!
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39 minutes ago, JoeShmoe said:Let’s call it as it is, very poor output for coldies but the last few weeks has been wintry for many so chins up !
If the GFS is still showing important developments at day 6 then it really shouldn't be discounted so I wouldn't say it's "very poor output for coldies".
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Just in case anyone's interested in what a mist blizzard in strong winds on top of 3 meters of snow looks like.
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19°C and pleasant here, bright with sunny spells.
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Surely the record's been exceeded?
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30°C here and feeling hot in the sun.
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26°C here now, nearly 10°C rise in 3 hours.
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Aberdeen at 26°C already - must be going to have a crack at the record?
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Dull start to the day has given way to genuine wall to wall sunshine, now up to 25°C.
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Still 20°C here at nearly 10pm, lovely! Feels humid.
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2 hours ago, A Winter's Tale said:
Latest UKV is absolutely unbelievable. 33C+ across the eastern central lowlands and 37C in the south east!
They're turning out some really mental scenarios and it's s all going to be very much hanging in the balance.
For example is it really going to be only 21°C in Forres but into national record breaking territory on the Buchan coast? Seems odd and I doubt it but we shall see.
37°C in the south will be both fascinating and terrifying.
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Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
I'd have said a set up (with the potential to become sustained) in which a very cold air feed from the NE has highly precipitous low pressure systems from the SW trying to make incursions from the Atlantic at times would be conducive to Irish snowfall, but perhaps that's just my interpretation.