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Everything posted by SnowStorm(Jamie)

  1. Latest ICON: Met Office app showing rain for south west (Tenby) snow further east, maybe an indication of what is being shown on the latest UKV.
  2. Im not sure if the BBC weather uses the ECM data or not? I dont think they use the Met Office model (UKV) on tv anymore?
  3. Those automated forecasts should change soon to reflect this. Latest AROME does bring in some snow but again mainly light and patchy: Tough one to call really with some of this mornings early output, hopefully we will have some more clarity either way this evening one way or the other, but as we all know that doesn't always happen.
  4. Yep hopefully we still see some falling snow at least, im personally expecting more marginal conditions than shown by the likes of the ICON especially in the south west. It may not be the main event most wanted to end this cold spell but it appears to be all we are getting.
  5. Latest Met Office warnings are out, doesnt seem like they believe anything really accumilating on low ground in the south.
  6. Theres certainly a swing in favour today of a period of falling snow for Wales tomorrow going by 0z data. My guess is if this is continued to be shown they may extend their warning further south and east across Wales....we will see.
  7. Yep warning for Saturday also reduced, but they do highlight the uncertainty.
  8. ECM 12z for Saturday if anything makes less of the front but still shows a period of snow. GFS 12z view on Saturday, not much precipitation about. Goes onto bring in a more widespread risk of snow away from coasts early hours of Monday.
  9. Yes if you look at the GFS the front on Saturday is very patchy, it will be interesting to see if the other models start making less of the front. Thursday night it clips the far SW but thats it, all models pretty much agree on that now.
  10. Latest GFS for Saturday: ICON is more promising for Saturday still but I think its being a bit generous with snowfall distribution, see what the ECM shows later.
  11. Im in neither warnings at the moment, things can change but at the moment i dont see the precipitation making it much further than Pembrokeshire.
  12. Models take on Saturday's front: GFS> ECM>ICON> ARPEGE Can certainly see the uncertainity there, how far north and east it gets, intensity, etc.
  13. Not much change in my eyes to the outlook Thursday/Friday's front mostly light and patchy, the ICON may have made more of it last night but the trend is generally lighter stuff with heavier bursts over Pembrokeshire. Saturday looks the most promising as per what ECM/UKV/ICON shows but again very uncertain in relation to rain/snow distribution. Curious if the Met Office will issue any advance warnings today
  14. Yep never been a big fan of easterly's here, it seems like its been a long time since we had a decent cold shot from the north west, especially this time of year it normally delivers. 2009 was probably one of the better easterly's for our location but that was mainly due to an area of low pressure moving north. I think Thurs/Friday's front is going to struggle to make it any further than Pembrokeshire, Saturday is the next potential shot for something more widespread but introduces more marginal conditions towards SW parts.
  15. See snow more than likely but mainly light, seeing anything more significant starting to look less likely, obviously the ICON 12z would be best case. Unsure what UKV shows this evening.
  16. Unlikely any warnings will be issued for us just yet, more than likely a day before the event (if any) - Unless things change in favour of more widespread precipitation /accumilations.
  17. Latest ICON not making as much of Thursday/Friday's front on the 06z run - Mostly pembrokeshire: GFS and ECM have it reaching us but very light and patchy. UKV still looks good from what has been posted here. So still very uncertain for the end of this week.
  18. ICONs latest view on Thursday: Its still rolling out at the moment but Pembrokeshire may end up being the sweet spot Thursday...not often that happens. Then shows heavier precipitation moving into S/SE Wales Friday am.
  19. ECM keeping things on the cold side again, the above chart is a long way off and by no means anything special but it does show potential as energy from the altantic going under the block.
  20. Indeed latest ECM: Not sure what the latest UKV shows. Pembrokeshire looks best placed at the moment, unless the models continue to make less of this front.
  21. Latest ICON has the front on thursday struggling to reach SW Wales, GFS 12z does have it reaching Wales but mainly light precipitation. Await the ECM next to see what it shows....
  22. Indeed, Id still be cautious of any front making it into Wales at this stage, the ECM and UKV do look promising at the moment. The apps chop and change like no tomorrow as they are fed new data. Liam Dutton did a good write up on his Facebook page with regards to this cold spell and he mentioned the weather apps. Just recently had a few tiny flakes here.
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