Welsh_Weather

Currently travelling west across southern Ontario hoping that the clearer skies currently moving out of Michigan hit the Long Point to Port Burwell area by around 2pm EST. Totality is going to be around 3 minutes in this area so fingers crossed I can post some photos on here later. annoyingly the last two days we haven’t seen a single cloud and now we are chasing breaks.

So you are writing winter off for the south of the country on the 5th December? As much as our winters are pretty poor that is crazy statement.

of course, it will come in handy one winter.

You do that Andy, and that’s fine if YOU want to stock up, but last week you were telling people in the Mod thread to buy a 4x4 and stock up for 3 weeks. That is not looking after you and your wife that is telling people to do something totally unnecessary. My main point was to stop writing like the Daily Mail/Express. That’s the reason your posts were deleted from the thread. Like I said in my original post, we all love your enthusiasm and most of the time it’s great fun but the huge font and warnings of “copious amounts of snow” are a bit too much.

Please stop Andy, we all love your enthusiasm but this is getting tiresome now. The big writing and the Daily Express type posts are not helping. What upgrades keep coming? The chart you posted there doesn’t have any snow for South Wales and only a dusting for Mid and North Wales. There’s nothing wrong with a little ramping but some people come here for some genuine info and what you are providing is complete nonsense. Your posts were deleted in the model thread for good reason because you were telling people to stock up food for 3 weeks! Seriously?? Also, patience isn’t what we need when wanting snow at this time of year, it’s pretty much now or moving on to next winter. We might very well get some snow this week, a few flakes/dusting/decent covering for a day or two but definitely not worthy of clearing the supermarket shelves at a time where some supplies are already limited.

Update: it’s pretty vile out there now. Still a few hours until the peak, trying to upload a video but with no joy sorry. The room is shaking at times and it’s not looking like a pleasant nights sleep. Also, frequent lightning and a tornado warning in force.

Stuck in a hotel in Orlando for the next two days. Still eerily calm at the moment with only moderate rain. Local forecasts are saying tropical storm to cat 1 winds here and anywhere between 10-20 inches of rain in the next 48 hours.

The GFS now doesn’t bring in positive 850s until Tuesday for the majority of Wales(apart from the far southwest) and that is only for 24 hours before it sets up another deep cold scenario with a lot of undercutting. Now this is obviously not guaranteed but that’s the third run in a row that the GFS has hinted at this and it has to be watched because it was the first model to pick up on this current spell. It would only take a 50 to 100 mile westward shift to keep the cold over us and those fronts could stall over Wales all weekend and fizzle out without a major warming. With this scenario we wouldn’t require uppers much below freezing due to the surface cold. The feed still looks off the continent rather than the Atlantic. I say all this without the UKMO and ECM on board and it’s still the least likely outcome but let’s see what the later models suggest. The MOs further update has remained bullish about cold weather taking hold again from mid month onwards and maybe this is why.

Been snowing for 10 minutes in Aberdare and already a covering

Opposite you in Cwmaman, slushy deposits all melted now. Still looking ok for Sunday, but not nailed on yet.

Based on every operational in the reliable timeframe. I think it’s more down to you to prove that your opinion is correct. Yes there are ensemble members pointing at cold and plenty of operational’s showing potential in FI but apart from potential I’ve yet to see anything concrete showing ‘real cold’ making its way to the UK at some point.

The fact that the northern blocking has all but disappeared next weekend is telling. But the MO has hinted at the milder weather pushing in just not this soon.

Well we had a dusting last night and all looked good bit now another mild sector with this trough from the north and its once again sleety rain. I'm 200m ASL so it's going to have to be high elevations that profit from this once again. Roll on spring, this winter is more disappointing than last, at least then we didn't have any hope. I've never known set ups like this where we are having a lot of troughs coming down from the north bringing constant rain/sleet.

Can I just say to people stop taking these precipitation charts literally, especially in a set up like this. They are good as a guide but will not be accurate in a showery set up at 6 hours let alone 36 hours. They are better for frontal snow but only then at about 24 hours out and still not completely accurate with intensity/depths. Don't be disappointed if there is a big pink blob over your house and you don't get a flake of snow at a specific time and likewise don't be downbeat if there is blue over you or it is clear.