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Welsh_Weather

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    Aberdare, Mid-Glamorgan. 202 ASL

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  1. The fact that the northern blocking has all but disappeared next weekend is telling. But the MO has hinted at the milder weather pushing in just not this soon.
  2. Well we had a dusting last night and all looked good bit now another mild sector with this trough from the north and its once again sleety rain. I'm 200m ASL so it's going to have to be high elevations that profit from this once again. Roll on spring, this winter is more disappointing than last, at least then we didn't have any hope. I've never known set ups like this where we are having a lot of troughs coming down from the north bringing constant rain/sleet.
  3. Can I just say to people stop taking these precipitation charts literally, especially in a set up like this. They are good as a guide but will not be accurate in a showery set up at 6 hours let alone 36 hours. They are better for frontal snow but only then at about 24 hours out and still not completely accurate with intensity/depths. Don't be disappointed if there is a big pink blob over your house and you don't get a flake of snow at a specific time and likewise don't be downbeat if there is blue over you or it is clear.
  4. This is nothing like last week, we have a completely disrupted PV, wth lobes going everywhere, the main one to note diving over or just to our East and itno Central Europe. This isn't far away from a December 2010 setup, yes we don't have the deep cold uppers that we had then and the pressure isn't, at the moment building as much towards Greenland. If we get a mix of all the charts, everywhere will get a shot at snow, even South East Coast. The GFS is a little more marginal than ECM and UKMO but it also brings much more precipitation with very unstable air over the whole of the UK. I believe we will have something between GFS and ECM/UKMO, which would bring cold enough uppers for the whole country even at low levels. Polar lows can come from nowhere with as little as 6 hours notice and have the potential to bring quite a lot of snow in a short period to anywhere. Very interesting model watching but this our best shot at a nationwide event for quite a few years, let's just enjoy the ride.
  5. First proper snow of the winter in aberdare, OK it's wet snow but it's snow, and it's giving giving a slushy covering on the cars.
  6. Don't think so Andy, most of the cold uppers are moving north east rather than east, possibly sleet on hills and snow on the peaks but more likely a lot of heavy rain and hail in this approaching squal line. We may see the odd flake later in the night, and it guess that is what this winter has turned into, a search for a few flakes of wet snow.
  7. Travelling home from old Trafford last night and it was snowing on the tops of the heads of the valleys.
  8. Andy, I wish you would stop postin those charts, they ain't worth the pixels that are used. You've been posting them all winter showing the 'potential' for snow and there has hardly been a flake. But if those charts had come to fruition we would have had feet of snow around these parts. I know it's only what is being predicted but over the years they have been absolutely useless. I don't want to dent your enthusiasm as it is fun but are they really worth getting our hopes up when they are mostly over a week away?
  9. Sorry if this has already been said but havn't had time to look through every page but people who hang onto every frame of every model run especially if its in FI.
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