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SNOWPLOUGH

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  1. SNOWPLOUGH
    How can you know its a good call a month in advance may I ask?Interesting times at the moment with more and more runs showing height rises to our north, this is bound to affect our weather pattern in some way- Get the general pattern first- Then the details after. Hopefully we see the 12z runs continue the theme and bring forward the height rises. The models havent got a grasp on the final pattern yet and wont for some time yet. The important thing is these runs keep appearing and gradually get closer- as are the Northern Hemisphere anomaly charts that J.Holmes posts here. They are pretty important to have in agreement from what we have seen before.Dan
  2. SNOWPLOUGH
    Unless you have a crystal ball then you cant really say that for certain either. But I agree re the 12z's, this will be far from sorted on todays runs. Plenty more changes to come I feel.Dan
  3. SNOWPLOUGH
    Higher heights over svalbard, low in atlantic is also slightly further south and west. The whole pattern seems very slightly further west. Dan
  4. SNOWPLOUGH
    Yes thats very true- straight source from siberia, the perfect source considering the mild continent at present too. I also like the lack of depth to that low to our south on the +144 UKMO chart, perfect for sliding under the block.This has developed at a pace I dont think ive seen before, hopefully we can continue with the Upgrades and keep all the models on board.Edit : There is also a lovely Northern Italian low on that UKMO chart!Dan
  5. SNOWPLOUGH
    That GEM run is fantastic! Almost reverse zonality with a band of high pressure to the north and lows to our south driving easterlies out into the atlantic... and this is within the next 10 days, very interesting.Dan
  6. SNOWPLOUGH
    Looking like the Steve Murr GFS backtrack to the ECM is underway, were not there yet, interesting developments though. We need everything to move a little more to the west in next few runs now...UKMO needs to be onside too. Dan
  7. SNOWPLOUGH
    My interpretation of the UKMO is that on the +144hrs chart this is where the lows in the western Atlantic are heading> The high is unlikely to sink after this.. doesent even really matter when we have such disagreement at +120hrs anyway...
  8. SNOWPLOUGH
    Yep steady at 4.1C here in D14. DP is 2C. Dan
  9. SNOWPLOUGH
    Might be just me but cant see those pics su. Dan
  10. SNOWPLOUGH
    Snowing in athlone/Kildare/Meath/West Dublin in past hour or so according to boards. Dan
  11. SNOWPLOUGH
    Not too much difference between the majority of the UK and Ireland there- northern England/Scotland looks a fair bit colder but parts of NI are colder than SE England. I really Hope the UKMO has it right this morning with a beautiful under cutting low and pressure build to our north. Dan
  12. SNOWPLOUGH
    I think the mother of all undercuts is coming at the end of hi-res!! Brilliant run- East of Ireland has uppers below -4C from at least +60hrs til +162hrs with -6C/-8C uppers at times Dan
  13. SNOWPLOUGH
    Mad FI on the GFS- should finish up with a greeny high. Not sure what to make of the output in the reliable..its a mess really. Dan
  14. SNOWPLOUGH
    GFS control looks almost identical to op run and the mean is better than both so far. Dan
  15. SNOWPLOUGH
    Todays GEM looking good at +102hrs with Shortwave diving south east. Dan
  16. SNOWPLOUGH
    If ECM agrees with the UKMO then GFS has to be wrong! Dan
  17. SNOWPLOUGH
    Can you see the UKMO being wrong at this distance? Either could be! Dan
  18. SNOWPLOUGH
    Still strange that the shortwave dosent follow the direction of the majority of energy in the jet stream. Worrying though...surely the GFS isnt wrong so early?? Dan
  19. SNOWPLOUGH
    Nope starting to go downhill now- despite better ridging into greenland early on it looks like the shortwave is heading straight east.... Dan
  20. SNOWPLOUGH
    Better for Ireland though at +72hrs with -8C 850's in already. Dan
  21. SNOWPLOUGH
    Good news! Am I right in saying the NAM is run at a higher resolution than the GFS? Even if not I know its been very useful for tracking mesoscale changes in the past. Dan
  22. SNOWPLOUGH
    I would agree with this- its all FI anyway and we go through a very dodgy patch to get there but I think pressure will rise just to the north/north east of scotland on this run. Dan
  23. SNOWPLOUGH
    Really hoping GFS and UKMO come up with the goods in a few minutes. Serious snow for the UK and Ireland if this cold spell comes off anything like what was shown yesterday.
  24. SNOWPLOUGH
    I will remain optimistic as long as the teleconnections are looking good and as long as GP,Chiono,JH,NS and Steve murr etc can see potential cold spells develoing... My prediction is for colder runs to start showing again before this time tomorrow, would be in keeping with the model output of late. Dan
  25. SNOWPLOUGH
    Anyone have the link for the AO/NAO Spaghetti forecasts? Dan
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