SLEETY

In UK yes when mild takes control it can last for weeks and cold rarely survives more than a week. Just the way it is but the northwards shift of the Azores high in winter has made cold even harder to achieve

Remember spring a couple of years ago when the Greenland high dominated for the whole month, think May? I know the vortex is weaker in Spring then Winter but still struggling to see how this Greenland high just seems to vanish in 24 hours. Can't withstand the onslaught of the low and it's game over. Struggling to see any way back to cold from here.

Hey guys just wait for spring and your get the perfect northern blocking appear that won't just melt away like this week. Winter in this country is just Woeful now, mainly just constant wind and rain crud off the Atlantic. The warming trend since the late 80s in NW Europe is just ridiculous

Are people really going on the chase again. Best bet wait till spring, that's when we normally see perfect northern blocking and Southerly tracking lows that don't miss the UK!

Woeful outlook if your interested in cold and snow after this week, and the chance of snow in the far South mid-week, has gone, virtually every model has the low too far South. Why is anyone surprised any more.

Models normally have the low too far north at this stage and eventual outcome it goes south, maybe they have it too far South and it goes north instead!!

You worry for the rest of the season though if the cold can just get pushed away so quickly. I thought cold was was hard to push away because it's dense etc and from what I have read, Amazing to think even here on the coast we actually have had 3 days of lying snow even on beach from the heavy snow showers from last Monday, stayed on the ground till Thursday This low has all the hallmarks of 2023 in March where the South Coast got a little bit of snow but channel Isles got hammered. Need a big northwards movement in next 24 hours it's rare the models are wrong with the tracks of low pressure systems 48 hours away anymore!

How the heck do we go from this to this 3 days later The blocking just melts away like magic,and back to atlantic wind and rain crud

sOME MODELS GOING FOR IT

8-10 day range is way too far out to be making any assumptions. Wouldn't be surprised if the back-track starts with the models. Been here before at the weekend for the end of the following week and the reality is sometimes totally different. Keep the faith

8-10 day range is way too far out to be making any assumptions. Wouldn't be surprised if the back-track starts with the models later today regarding end of next week. Been here before at the weekend for the end of the following week and the reality is sometimes totally different. Keep the faith!

People are talking like there is no cold spell incoming lol, there is, it's just the end looks a lot quicker than it was, however the end of next week is a long time away in the weather world,so don't think it's a done deal yet. Anyway I expect a few surprise snow chances will appear over the next few days.

More or less he said that,don't try and twist it in his favour let's see but won't be long before the cold comes back, if it even goes away, a week is a long time in the weather world.

So some places are going to see snow? You said a couple of days ago it would be "dry as the Sahara" for the majority of the UK Make your mind up

Writing off the entire winter because the op runs bring in the Atlantic mid january I'm also quoting this post in a few weeks, not as if the set-up after this week would take much for it to go back to cold again.

Not your. Fault, it was looking like a locked in cold-spell for next two weeks at least, with repeated southerly tracking lows and chance of snow for many What's happened last few days that by Friday the Atlantic back in control and back to wind and rain crud

If it can go wrong for cold in UK it nearly always does. Always just can fly to USA to see the proper cold the game is up for UK after next week

Yes shocking how this northerly airstream and blocking over Greenland gets pushed away by Friday. I have viewed archived charts of blocking and arctic northerlies Feb 69 for example and they have gone on to form Scandi highs and even colder weather,many times, not anymore it seems, always now the Atlantic just barrels through and the game is up. Let's hope this low is modelled further north mid-week so at least some get some snow. By next weekend it's back to mild Atlantic crud and rain and a million miles away from any cold weather and snow bar the Highlands. What a surprise said no one ever

Most people will have seen some snow by the end of next week is the best way to sum up things at the moment. Don't take the op runs on their own the Met dont. They use all the ensemble runs to make their FORECAST,they even said that on the 10 day trend forecast, not just the op run! Lot of posters on here just seem to live or die by the op runs. Wrong! You can tell them to your blue in the face, makes no difference!

Gfs OP has lost the plot lol. What sort of run was that, another run for the shredder interesting that the ensembles seem to be have some more colder run in there though. Some really frigid runs actually, don't write anything off

ens number 16 on the money Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/99706-model-output-discussion-into-2024/?do=findComment&comment=4996959

time-scale your talking about means nothing.Another one that hangs off every model and ensemble run,like its gospel.Hilarous or irritating.

what makes you think its correct.Ecm at that time ahead being struggling all week with the positioning of the high just a few days away,even now the op was at the top end of its run for how cold next week will be, Even the met says the models struggle with greenland high pressure,nothing for next weekend.is sorted yetSave the charts now and then post them for next saturday see how they compare.Good luck if you think they will match

ens number 16 on the money

Don't just rely on the op run people are told, but they still do it,time after time, then call downgrade at chartt over 10 days away and ignore the excellent earlier part of the gfs in this case SAME every winter.