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http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?ech=6&code=0&mode=2 06Z GFS T+78 and T+84 shows a period of snow across the extreme south as a shallow low travels along the English channel.

http://meteocentre.com/analyses/map.php?lang=en&map=eur_full&area=eur&size=large Well this is the easterly that was forecast about 2 weeks ago but how pathetic. Although is it sub zero over the near continent and has been for a couple of days now the lower temperatures cannot seem to make it across the southern North sea without being very much inflated presumably by the unusually warm sea. I suppose one more day with an easterly component might cool things down a bit more before the Atlantic rolls in and we get the same sort of temperatures but with a westerly instead of an easterly.

http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=eur&run=00&mod=ukmet&stn=PNM&comp=1&run2=00&mod2=ukmet&stn2=PNM&hh2=096&fixhh=1&hh=000 00Z UKMO shows low pressure to south of UK right through to T+144. Initially it moves eastwards keeping the south of the UK in a chilly NE'ly but later extends back westwards with the next Atlantic ridge poised to nose in to the UK perhaps being propped up by the westward travelling low. Meanwhile at 10h a discrete low formed between the Azores and SW Ireland presumably on the cold front but now disappeard which could be a sign of a tendency for low pressure to form in this region or it could just be a red herring. http://meteocentre.com/analyses/map.php?lang=en&map=eur_full&area=eur&size=large

The slider low modelled over a week ago to enter the Med in now in place. The flow over the SE Uk has backed to the NE. It is still mild at present but upwind over the near continent snow grains are starting to be reported with temperature close to zero. This colder air although likely to be somewhat modified by its passage across the southern N sea and also by turbulent mixing with warmer layers above is still likely to be alot colder than anything experienced so far this autumn. http://meteocentre.com/analyses/map.php?lang=en&map=eur_full&area=eur&size=large

The atlantic low which has now transferred to the western Med is drawing up some exceptionally warm air from Africa with 28 C at Palermo in Sicily at midnight. Some of the warm air is filtering into parts of mainly southern europe. The low is modelled to expand NE wards over the next few days and is expected to back the flow over southern UK drawing in colder air form further east. At the same time the atlantic ridge is modelled to extend across the middle of the UK. An increasingly cold week looks likely for much of the UK as the warm air currently over the UK is gradually replaced by a feed of colder low level drier air from northern Europe. http://meteocentre.com/analyses/map.php?lang=en&map=eur_full&area=eur&size=large http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/brack2a.gif

Not Spain but Palermo Sicily.. 28 C at 20Z. Pretty good for late November. http://meteocentre.com/analyses/map.php?lang=en&map=eur_full&area=eur&size=large

It is something that I have noticed over many years. Not always the case though...a couple of winters back a high of 1060MB gradually moved westwards from Siberia at around 60 N putting most of Europe and SE UK into the freezer and lasted around a week.. reasonably well modelled though. I think that the more intense the high the more energy is required to maintain it so although the pattern is more likely to be meridional for intense highs to exist the chances are that the lows are also highly intense and the highs can get quickly shunted away.

http://meteocentre.com/analyses/map.php?lang=en&map=eur_full&area=eur&size=large Models seem to mostly agree on low pressure to the south over the next few days with ridging over the middle of the country and a gradual cooling trend with a frosty spell next week for parts of the UK. There is evidence of a cold pool east of Poland which could eventually become absorbed by the low now moving NE into the Med and with some remarkably high temperatures over the western Med there may be potential for invigoration of this low. Also of note are observations of blowing sand over N Africa which could get sucked up and blown above the UK giving the sky a milky appearance over the next few days. At the same time the colder drier air is creeping ever closer to the south east with most of Holland now in this colder air. The high over NW Russia continues to be maintained and has moved further north over the last couple of days. Also note worthy is that the Russian high is not that intense at around 1040MB. Intense highs can look dramatic but sometimes can be prone to quick displacement where as more modest highs can hang around for longer periods.

12Z UKMO expands the low to the south until end of the run at T+144 holding the southern portion of the country in a NE'ly. Consequently the ridge is held further north. Looking up wind it looks like it could get pretty cold fairly soon with lower dewpoints already into parts of the low countries. http://www.meteociel.com/modeles/ukmo2.php?ech=6&carte=1021

http://meteocentre.com/analyses/map.php?lang=en&map=eur_full&area=eur&size=large Big contrasts in temperature across Europe this morning from 20 C in western France to 2 C in parts of Denmark and Germany. The colder low level air is continuing its trek westwards and as the low now approaching Iberia extends east the flow over S UK should continue to back eventually dragging in some of this colder drier low level air. It remains to be seen how quickly the low to the south loses its influence and latest output if anything keeps the extreme south in the ENE'ly from this low a little longer. Further on the atlantic ridge extends across the UK marginally further north on some of the latest output hinting more towards a frosty spell than yesterdays output. Some evidence of low pressure to the south is also more prominent than yesterday which effectively helps to prop up the ridge even if only in a modest way.

One of the most significant developments which looks likely to affect the UK in the next few days is the imminent transfer SE then E of the Atlantic low into the Med and the backing of the flow to bring colder air from further east. Once in place this feature could persist for a while as unexpectedly indicated by 18Z GFS. The cold is currently intensifying over Russia and is filtering into SE and eastern Europe. http://meteocentre.com/analyses/map.php?lang=en&map=eur_full&area=eur&size=large

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reurmetd.html Dewpoints have fallen over central Europe over the last couple of days inspite of a southerly component to the wind. The southerly component is modelled to increase over the next few days with warm air being drawn northwestwards form north Africa and the eastern Med. This warm flow is likely to be frustrated somewhat by the mountain barries of SE Europe and the Alps so some modification in likely closer to the surface. Although the days over parts of Europe might be quite pleasant the nights may be quite cold. As the atlantic low slides into Iberia and eventually takes shape in the Med the flow backs and colder drier air should be drawn westwards towards the UK. At the same time the expected elongated ridge across the middle of the country could provide a spell of significant frost and freezing fog.

Tonights ECM offers a continuation of the trend of recent runs with low pressure establishing itself to the south of the UK and a elongated ridge becoming established across the Midlands and the north. As the flow over the UK gradually backs the warm air being drawn NW from N Africa is eventually replaced by colder drier air from further east. This colder drier air is likely to filter over much of the UK (providing the ridge remains in place) leading to much frost and freezing fog. As it will be early December by then and provided skies are clear the frost could persist all day in the shade and even accumulate. Also with the prospect of persistent freezing fog there could be significant rime deposits. It could end up being quite a wintry scene unlike many of the more recent early Decembers with the odd exception of course.

It does now look like a guaranteed rather than phantom easterly for the south of the UK later in the week with Met O Fax charts heading towards this evolution. It looks like the source of the air set to reach the UK over the next few days is from N Africa and may be relatively mild at first.The low to the south looks like hanging around for a while helping to prop up the ridge and eventually allowing colder drier air to head towards the UK from further east. Models have repeatedly attempted to break down the anomalous ridge to the east over recent days and have repeatedly failed however the condition responsible for the ridge are likely to be changing due to seasonal changes and the ridge may well take up a different position as we head into winter. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/brack4.gif

Encouraging ECM tonight maintaining the trend (3 runs now) to an increasingly chilly easterly later in the week with low pressure maintained to the south of the UK.

00Z ECM continues the theme of expanding the area of low pressure to the south of the UK which has the effect of propping up the ridge and allowing cold air to flood over the UK from europe in a stiff northeasterly. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php

UKMO T+72 has shifted the low over England around 200 miles SW compared to the previous run. Still plenty of uncertainty even at moderate time scales. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/brack2.gif

ECM showing more promise tonight in its later reaches with an expanding low pressure to the south cutting off the southerly feed and encouraging the cold pool to be dragged westwards.

http://meteocentre.com/analyses/map.php?lang=en&map=eur_full&area=eur&size=large The cold to the NE is in place . Just need to get the high to play ball.

I hope you will keep posting these. I find that they are some of the most useful charts available and the fact that the pattern appears stuck is significant in its self .

The cooling off in Eastern europe has continued much as shorter term model predictions. Parts of Poland are currently experiencing light snow with temperatures close to 0 C in places. Some of the longer term model predictions were inclined to show more mobility to the north of the ridge encouraging it to collapse southeastwards however is remains in situ feeding colder air into parts of europe from the east albeit tempered at times by the infiltration of some warmer air from the eastern Med. http://meteocentre.com/analyses/map.php?lang=en&map=eur_full&area=eur&size=large

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/brack0.gif Latest UKMO T+24 FAX is almost identical to previous run except that the occlusion over western UK is moved further west. So still some backtracking occurring even within a very short timescale.

http://meteocentre.com/analyses/map.php?lang=en&map=eur_full&area=eur&size=large A bemused atlantic at 10Z...must be the block to the east.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/brack2.gif Latest Fax at T+72 very similar to previous two runs although a bit of a better shape to the block with more of a hint of a continental flow into the SE. Colder drier air from Poland and further east now filtering into E Germany and E Denmark.