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Everything posted by Radiating Dendrite
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Model output discussion 11/12/21
Radiating Dendrite replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
It's not even a west based -nao anyway. The high is between Iceland and Greenland, not Greenland and Canada. -
Winter 2021-22 Chat, Moans and ramps thread
Radiating Dendrite replied to damianslaw's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Is "snowbomb" a meteorological term? -
Model output discussion 11/12/21
Radiating Dendrite replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Even the warm ones are on in the 3-5c area. -
Model output discussion 11/12/21
Radiating Dendrite replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
The most impressive thing is the Arctic draining into Eastern Europe. If we do get a Christmas miracle, it could be similar to the daddy of all easterlies (I dare not type the number of the beast). -
Model output discussion 11/12/21
Radiating Dendrite replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Even then we get little white lies. Keep telling yourself this time will be different! -
Model output discussion 11/12/21
Radiating Dendrite replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
When are they ever honest? -
Model output discussion 11/12/21
Radiating Dendrite replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Strange to see the ECM being so grumpy. In the past the GFS has usually been the party pooper with lows near Greenland, whilst the ECM tended to over amplify everything. We usually get a meet in the middle scenario, which is probably a continuation of the UK high in this scanario. -
Model output discussion 11/12/21
Radiating Dendrite replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Jules just likes a moan. It could be showing 87 Synoptics and he would still find fault. -
Model output discussion 11/12/21
Radiating Dendrite replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Was that in February 2018? -
Model output discussion 11/12/21
Radiating Dendrite replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Bah humbug! -
Model output discussion 11/12/21
Radiating Dendrite replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Erm..... best I've ever seen! -
Model output discussion 11/12/21
Radiating Dendrite replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
This may be wrong, but surely the lack of low heights in the med is a big issue. Nothing to stop the high sinking if it meets any resistance near Greenland or Scandi. -
Model output discussion 11/12/21
Radiating Dendrite replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Not even Google translate is giving me anything on this one! -
Model Output Discussion - Winter arrives
Radiating Dendrite replied to Blessed Weather's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
The only thing that weather is good for is travelling around the festive period (if we're allowed too)! -
Model Output Discussion - Winter arrives
Radiating Dendrite replied to Blessed Weather's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Think that run will be near the top of the ensembles. Shows just how important it is that we get the high North. If it fails, it will just fatten up over us and we'll have gloomy 5c weather! -
Model Output Discussion - Winter arrives
Radiating Dendrite replied to Blessed Weather's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Nice to see the trough over Scandi and also low near the azores. This could be a candy filled run up to Christmas! -
Model Output Discussion - Winter arrives
Radiating Dendrite replied to Blessed Weather's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Looks fairly similar to what we have seen before - close to neutral in the main with no significant blocking events. Looks like a mid latitude high which could ridge north at times, but will it get far enough north..... -
Model Output Discussion - Winter arrives
Radiating Dendrite replied to Blessed Weather's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Let us hope that does end up further north, as that is a Bartlett. -
Model Output Discussion - Winter arrives
Radiating Dendrite replied to Blessed Weather's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I think that's a given every winter. Eastern Europe is much colder than GB. It's December 5th, all to play for. -
Model Output Discussion - Winter arrives
Radiating Dendrite replied to Blessed Weather's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
It isn't. In my original post I said north of the Midlands with height. You look to tick both boxes. -
Model Output Discussion - Winter arrives
Radiating Dendrite replied to Blessed Weather's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
250+ for settling snow. Wet snow that doesn't accumulate is as useful as bog standard rain. -
Model Output Discussion - Winter arrives
Radiating Dendrite replied to Blessed Weather's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Don't see any snow South of the Midlands and even there and into Northern England will need some decent height. Too early in the season for the south from this current set up in my opinion. Chilly and wet most likely. -
Model Output Discussion - Winter arrives
Radiating Dendrite replied to Blessed Weather's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Doesn't look much difference to what came before from the 10th onwards. Pattern to me in the next 10 days is chilly and wet. Could be some snowy surprises with height in the north. -
Model Output Discussion - Winter arrives
Radiating Dendrite replied to Blessed Weather's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
We also have the issue of the bitter cold uppers to the NE draining away. Even if we do get a Scandi mid month, there may not be much cold to tap into. -
Model Output Discussion - Winter arrives
Radiating Dendrite replied to Blessed Weather's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Hardly a bad position to start winter with - especially given many in the north have already seen a couple of good snowfalls. I am sure if SM was still on here, he would be telling us all that the models always overdo lows in these types of situations, underestimating the block to the east.. Expect the pattern to back west and the lows to slide.