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Radiating Dendrite

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Everything posted by Radiating Dendrite

  1. Radiating Dendrite
    There is not a definitive right or wrong answer though as it has not happened. The truth is always a blend, with the models making small changes globally.
  2. Radiating Dendrite
    I'm a bit confused exactly what people are now chasing? Whilst it looks like it could turn colder, any frontal snow risk is either too far south or when further north, it is not cold enough?
  3. Radiating Dendrite
    Time for a break for me - see you all next week.
  4. Radiating Dendrite
    Not sure what people are moaning about in regards to the UKMO, it looks fine.
  5. Radiating Dendrite
    This issue is it has consistency with its earlier run. I'm starting to think this could be a close but no cigar situation. Christmas day could be 10c down here, wondering what the hell were the models playing at 6 days ago.
  6. Radiating Dendrite
    ICON 6z has nudged things a little further north again - similar to the GFS. Going off those two - Christmas day is relatively mild in the far south with a wintry mix zone over northern England.
  7. Radiating Dendrite
    Fantasy Island - the point the model loses it's head and cannot be trusted.
  8. Radiating Dendrite
    But the NAO plots are just reflecting what the models show.....it is not an independent teleconnection.
  9. Radiating Dendrite
    Not just 63! 1881 as well. Will be 1683/84 next!
  10. Radiating Dendrite
    Is a whiff of 62/63 on the later GFS charts. The NH profile is very unusual!
  11. Radiating Dendrite
    This is what we need to see the model adjust too for Christmas day. Highlights that it wouldn't take too many southern corrections.
  12. Radiating Dendrite
    I have - snow is unlikely south of the Midlands up until very late boxing day. The 3rd system which comes through, would be snow for all though.
  13. Radiating Dendrite
    As I said above, around 0cm and 50mm of rain here. I know this is IMBYism, but for those not in the know who live in the south, these charts just show a cold wash out atm.
  14. Radiating Dendrite
    Still need it further south for the southern contingent - we are not all lucky enough to live 400m up!
  15. Radiating Dendrite
    Yep, too far North on the ICON and not even Scotland is getting snow on Christmas day. Let's be honest, it's model fodder 99% of the time. One of the issues we have is that Western Europe is not cold. A SE off the continent will not be of much help given the 850s, really need the front to slow or go so far south we pull in a NE wind.
  16. Radiating Dendrite
    Just one further thing to add, is that the models can also underplay the 850s a little as well at this range. Even if they're only 1/2c out, it could make a big difference.
  17. Radiating Dendrite
    Think you need to add an extra 100 hours onto that! Snow line can be a few miles.
  18. Radiating Dendrite
    I would still caution that the snow is showing in FI. Let's get this down to 4 days out first before getting our metre sticks out!
  19. Radiating Dendrite
    Yes, I've seen these things move from snow just over Scotland, to the thing trending as far south as the middle of France!
  20. Radiating Dendrite
    Let's christen this one with a boooooom!
  21. Radiating Dendrite
    That is not a million miles away from what the ECM was dishing up. Expect a GooFuS Backtrack on the 12z.
  22. Radiating Dendrite
    Steady as she goes on the Amuse-bouche Icon 12z.
  23. Radiating Dendrite
    I thought you were finding a new hobby?
  24. Radiating Dendrite
    Yesterday's? It could easily change again the following morning.
  25. Radiating Dendrite
    GEM I believe
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