Evening thunder
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Posts posted by Evening thunder
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The near continent will cool off quickly too looking at the charts, the heat moving to E Europe but that vanishing too next week. A vile 06z GFS run, yes dry next week but cold yet again then troughing setting up yet again over W Europe. Nasty if it comes off. Though the ECM giving a very different picture with another hot plume modelled for 11-12th...as the models are all over the place, gives me some hope that we'll see a warm up soon.
Yeah GFS shows the cool air pushing down into France more, I just saw the ECM this morning where the dividing line was literally the English Channel lol, but of course the warmth in FI has gone now but knew not to trust it. Hopefully things will fall more in our favour at some point, probably saving it for when I'm out the country 10th-18th June lol
yes, the uppers suggest next weeks expected high to be cool, but its JUNE! the sun is high and very strong in the sky. the air sourced from a more cool northerly latitude will be clear and fresh (assuming we dont get north sea stratus), in the clear air it will feel superb in the sun! heat without humidity suits most.
Yeah I guess but cool/cold uppers is what we've had for over a month and is crap compared to the interest of what was shown. The GFS in particular shows sub-zero uppers, in June, under high pressure.. that's pretty poor if even the settled spells are cool like that. Sure it may feel reasonably pleasant mid- afternoon in strong sun if winds are light and cloud doesn't bubble up/spread out, and it will look good too, However it's not warmth like my post was on about and I also have an interest in weather, someone change the record please. I thought I remembered you preferring warmth in summer?
In fact the GFS could give at least ground frosts here, no thanks.
The GFS is quite poor with no shorts/t-shirt or comfortable beach weather at all really and continual cool shots. ECM aint much better. Pretty amazing if that is the outcome from all the models showing plumes, 15+ uppers and the MetO singing for a warm June.
I guess I'm just feeling really underwhelmed with it all..
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Why is it so hard to get warmth (and storms) in this country atm? when literally just across the channel they hold on to it all the time next week (e.g the ECM). So much apparent promise and so much fail.
Even the high pressure next week looks pretty cool.
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The one thing I want to know is - why do certain members only ever make a contribution whenever the models start showing crap weather? One would think that they actually enjoy cold northwesterlies in summer!
This unrelenting pessimism that some people have is incredibly irritating - and I sincerely hope they don't take that approach to life in general.Quite agree, there's a few posters that always just post about cold charts/downgrades, and only ever post warm/hot ones if it was from yesterday to show that today has changed and 'downgraded'. Though they post as if they don't enjoy it, but maybe they do (nothing wrong with liking cool weather, but why pretend you don't and spread a load of pessimistic posts?)
I just occasionally post a moan in this thread such as this morning when I feel I need it.
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Why does everything always shift east so much and downgrade? retarded models.
No doubt instead a weak long plume will upgrade and occur from the 10th-17th, when I'm not in the country. Often a guarantee of me missing one of the better if not the best event of the year.
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I was wondering what effect the SST anomalies may have on pressure patterns, and if they could encourage low pressure in the Atlantic and a downstream high over Europe, and with regards to that this quote from the Met Office contingency planners forecast is interesting..
In the North Atlantic, sea surface temperatures to the south of Greenland are cooler than in recent years; this pattern of sea-surface temperatures is thought to increase the probability of above-average pressure over northern Europe in summer. At this time of year such a pressure pattern is often associated with above-average temperatures. Computer model signals are weak regarding the most probable atmospheric circulation types over Europe this summer, although there is a slight preference for higher-than-average pressure across northern Europe. This lends support to the increased likelihood of above-average temperatures during June and June-July-August as a whole, which can be seen in the graphs in figure T2; however, uncertainty is large and there is still a broad range of possible outcomes.http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/media/pdf/8/6/A3_plots-temp-JJA.pdf
and interestingly enough models are trending for high pressure over Northern Europe this june.. so perhaps these SST anomalies may benefit us to some extent?
Although I'd imagine when west/NW winds do occur they may be a bit cooler than normal and the anomalies may have contributed to the quite cold/wintry westerlies we sometimes got last winter.
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But as normal it missed Egham with the intense stuff going Woking way and beyond. Nothing more than moderate rain here.
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ecm extended ens continue to promise something better. the alaskan ridge finally gives way to an upper shallow trough which draws the vortex energy west from ne canada rather than the current fixation with the n atlantic. gefs also promises a general rising in heights over europe so i would expect the passing of week 2 to herald a change in our fortunes. what seems to be showing consistently, is that once the jet relents, we will see a euro height rise to our ese and an upper trough form over iberia. i may be sounding like a broken record but it will definitely feel very different if that comes to pass. of course, if we do get a ridge established to our east, any reformation of the atlantic jet will deliver a rather different outcome where the two meet. either way, thats warm and wet (thundery?) or perhaps v warm/hot and dry.
Sounds interesting and what I like from summer, and seeing as I will be out the country from the 10th-18th I can guarantee it will come to pass..
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Highest official maximum in the UK yesterday was 21.2C at Hurn.
Reached 20.4C at mine, supported by Exeter Airport reaching 20.7C.
Warmest day of the month so it has thankfully broken the 20C barrier this month.
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Well that changed rather a lot in 3 days, thought it was too good to be true for summer to arrive as I finish final exams.
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Some good clouds and convection around today.
Thought I heard something here from that storm to the south but hard to hear things amongst the incessant planes from Heathrow...
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Sounds reasonable to me as someone that's into my weather.
Hopefully there would be enough warm sunny spells mixed in there though.
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Ah yes I remember that frustration well. As if the weather in the southeast wasn't boring enough already, Egham always seemed to pull the short straw when it came to storms.
Haha yep, although we had a couple surprise thunder events this winter. The ones today lost their electrical activity quite quickly so it wasn't so bad but most of the heavier showers and downpours still missed here.
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Ah some sefrics been given off by this line coming into the London area,
and oh look, a nice gap just for Egham!
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Stuart markham seems to think we'll have a cool wet summer because of low sunspot activity now. Think his statement in my opinion is incorrect now as the cfs doesn't support what he says at all.
By the way folks does anyone think the qbo will have an impact on this summer as it has done in the past?
There's also the fact that 1995 was during a solar minima... and 2003/2006 occurred on the declining limb of the solar cycle like we will be this summer (2006 was quite near the minima).
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More rain this month already (22.8mm) than the whole of April (15.4mm).
14.6mm fell yesterday, much of that being orographically enhanced drizzle as it hit the coast and hills around Lyme Bay.
8.2mm since midnight.
Temp peaked at 17.9c just now.
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I'm not really bothered about some rain at the moment in fact in a way I am glad, I'm not too keen on very dry springs especially at the time nature may need water the most.
Having said that I did enjoy Aprils weather.
Hopefully some decent falls of rain to sustain lush growth which would also mean a hot/dry summer, should one occur, may have less negative impacts on water supplies and plant/crop growth, and nature in general
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-0.8c back home in Devon this morning, the coldest of the spell, which shows if conditions had been right a few nights ago it could have been significantly colder than the -0.3c reached.
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We had a min of -0.3c yesterday but the temp levelled off/rose a bit for much of the night before reaching the minimum at dawn, so it could have been significantly lower, a case of damaging frost averted really.
This morning recorded 0.4c, with bits of cloud/showers causing the wind to pick up briefly, disturbing the temperature fall.
I recorded -0.8c in May 2010 (12th), -0.7c in May 2012 (16th), -0.2c in May 2013 (1st, (and 0.9c on the 26th)), so slight air frosts in May are not too unusual here. It looks like we won't a get quite as notable minimum as I thought we might have during this spell now.
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Definitely more frosts in December here, and it reached -6.7c compared to Aprils -0.7c..
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I guess it's what you'd expect in spring really, warm spells and cold spells. I have heard many say they like spring because of its ability to bring both summer and winter like conditions and the switches that can happen. Now it seems it's all rubbish and awful that it's not consistently above average.
I think 1995 was a good example of a spring with episodic warm spells and colder northerlies. Reading a post in the April/May cold spell thread 1935 and 1955 had notable cold outbreaks with snow. I believe 1955 was a good summer, as was 1975 and in particular 1995 was hot.. I hope this apparent theme of things repeating every 20 years continues this summer
The GFS version looks pretty notable indeed this evening, though the ECM shows a less severe version.
I'm kind of interested to see any notable minima we have (though they may not be so notable down here), but at the same time I don't really want damaging frosts.
May is basically my exam season though so personally I'm no so bothered what happens this month.
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Enough rain to dampen the ground earlier (0.2mm, wow).. but nothing useful, a mostly cloudy day though, not used to the dullness this afternoon.
I'm still not convinced we will get much rain here, the showers tomorrow could easily miss and then not much forecast in the reliable timeframe. Just 5.8mm so far this month and 3.4mm needed to beat April 2011 and not be the driest month I've recorded.. I guess it's more likely we will get that by months end but you never know.
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In contrast to some today was only about average here, reaching 13.2c due to a cooler wind off the sea. A cloudy start but still became a lovely day though.
I'm not convinced we will get much rain here looking at various models but even if we do (and I'd kind of like us to as some things would probably like a drink to encourage spring growth), it will only be what you expect for this (or any) time of year and we will still have had a good month.
We've only had 5.6mm of rain this month and we need 3.6mm for it not to be the driest month I've recorded (currently 9.2mm in April 2011). I guess we will probably get that by months end but you never know.
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A cloudy start today which was different, however another lovely sunny afternoon has developed. Temperatures only average though with cooler air off the sea giving a max of 13.2C.You'd think from the uppers of +8C that today could be a lot warmer in places, parts of France are 25C with the same uppers and they are similar to last week when the SE got 25C.
I am beginning to forget what cloud looks like!
It was the same with me until today
I had been in Morocco for a week ending last Wednesday, and when I arrived it was just as warm in Egham as it had been in Morocco by the coast.. and ever since I got back it's been sunny (apart from some high/mid level cloud on a couple of days).. so have basically experienced very little cloud for over 2 weeks.
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WSI's forecast for May and into summer
WSI Europe: April Pattern to Persist into May
Summer to be Cool/Wet Across Western and Southern Europe
The April pattern doesn't look like persisting into May for us.. even by their forecast? To get their cooler than average prediction for May goes against that headline..
This unrelenting pessimism that some people have is incredibly irritating - and I sincerely hope they don't take that approach to life in general.
Summer 2015
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted · Edited by Evening thunder
So that case plumes/continental flows shift east and high pressures shift west.. great... lol.
I thought a positive AMO was potentially linked to wetter summers?
It looked pretty negative around the time of 1975/6 anyway http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/1/1b/Amo_timeseries_1856-present.svg
But as others have suggested above I'm not too worried about this summer yet, just feeling a bit cheated about the latest big downgrades (a trend I hope doesn't continue.) Many good ones only really get going later in June.