Evening thunder

Interesting how quickly the grass has greened up around here. It didn't go as uniformly brown as in many part of England due to rain on the 1st and 4th of July and a bit more overnight into the 21st, presumably it would have been easier for it to recover where not completely dead. 19mm in the last 4 days of July brought the monthly total to 44.5mm and the soil surface is still damp in places.

I notice this weekend has incrementally downgraded here, 1pm temps on the ECM went from 26C to 22C over 4 runs. Also the correct solution seems to have been arrived at with that plume i.e. it curves nicely around Britain but effects the entirety of nearby Europe and heads into parts of Scandinavia.. Normal service resumed then.

The cloud thankfully cleared yeterday afternoon (often been quite cloudy these last 7 days). I see a few 30's in the east and even 28C in Manchester so about 7C above normal. Nothing like that here.. max was 23.4C so about 2C above average. Should be warmer today, but it's currently overcast again.

I've noticed the temps have been downgraded a touch here for the weekend. For example, 3 runs ago the ECM had 26C's as 1pm temps for me.. now it shows 23's and 24's. That seems to have been a common theme this summer here, although many unsettled trends beyond about a week often didn't verify, temps have not quite been as high they had been shown 3-5 days before (and significantly higher temps were shown at 6-10 days sometimes). To me it feels like since the unsettled weekend appeared, the modelling is often trending in the other direction to much of summer, i.e. towards the less hot and more unsettled solutions. One day the various runs/ensembles that brought a 'proper' heatwave to central and southwestern areas will verify (even the E/NE surface winds and 18C 850's with 33-35C maxima for me that the GFS and many ensembles showed a few times). It feels like a big chance missed though with the hot air to the south and east, and how high the SST's had been before the very unsettled weekend cropped up. It's funny really, if I hadn't seen the virtual model world it probably wouldn't feel like that lol. I will enjoy this weekend though and surely I will beat my very low maximum of 25.6C from the last 10 Augusts.

I noticed it looking pretty good up there on the anomaly maps. It seems SW was worst and north best that summer (compared to their respective averages) We didn't get much thunder here, I recall showers often electrifying as they moved further east.

I'm being pedantic perhaps but 1976 saw the June record with 35.6C at Southampton (tied with Camden Square in 1957 although the Met Office indicates there's reservations about that record) and saw 35.9C at Cheltenham on the 3rd July. In my location it's above the rest with 33.5C being the record at Exeter Airport, and an 11 day stretch with 29-33C (9 of those 30C+). 1983 and 1990 also saw over 32C. A major heatwave is one element that's been missing for central-west/SW England IMO. Ok we have scraped 30C but the big heatwaves in 76, 83, 90, 95, 03, 06 etc got higher (sometimes 35C+ in places). This had been suggested by the modelling a few times but it didn't verify. As such even this year almost everywhere at our latitude including parts of Ireland/Scotland, and of course parts of the Arctic circle e.g. north Lapland, have got hotter). That doesn't stop it being a great summer overall of course, but for someone like me it's just a box left unchecked on the 'all time greatest' criteria sheet.

Here it was quite poor overall. Perhaps a little better than 2007/2008 but 2010 was better being the only 'average' summer in the 2007-2012 period here. June was alright with a mean max of 20.0C (slightly above average), Rainfall 57.2mm, 5 days >1mm July had a mean max of 19.7C (near 1.5C below average), Rainfall 175.0mm! 19 days >1mm August had a mean max of 20.3C (slightly below average). Rainfall 56.6mm, 12 days >1mm This shows the maximum temperature and rainfall for each day. I don't have sunshine stats for then but the Met Office maps shows the SW was one of the dullest areas anomaly wise.

25c = 20 27c = 11 30c = 2 32c = 0

Forgot to post, yesterday reached 27.7C despite almost full cloud magically tracking over here until lunch time (had got to 26C), then rose a bit despite the sea breeze. This became more effective about 4pm when it dropped quickly to about 23C. Low 10.6 last night. Cloudy all day today, reached 22.3C with a touch of brightness, thanks in part to the high SST's. I hope Sunday's weather doesn't reduce these too much by giving the seas a good mixing.

Much of the Netherlands/Belgium look to have had minima in the mid 20's and are already 35C!

Thanks for your reply and thoughts. Of course if they are more successful than any combination of model products then there has to be another form of input into them. I did quote the ops I guess though the ECM has been consistent and gaining weight including from the GEFS mean now (although with variation in the ensembles as usual). Of course they could change again to what the anomaly charts suggest. Only one way to find out.

Not sure if there are any verification stats available for them, but yes I understand them being better than individual ops, but not sure about taking all model guidance as a whole Though this morning all main models from what I can see don't show the heat.. if that's correct looks like the ECM operational has been on the mark and showing why it's the top verifying model. In situations like that I can't see the anomaly charts picking up the trend first, unless the brains behind any human input somehow anticipate this due to known bias/teleconnections etc (possible I suppose). The High looks quite weak on the ECM too.. Looks like the many charts/ensembles I saw bringing real or even record breaking even to the SW probably aren't going to occur

Yes I've wondered that before. Maybe an unintentional omission from the maps that hasn't been corrected?

Met Office website map shows the 35C contour in East Anglia at 1pm, at 4pm temps are down just a notch as thunderstorms break out.. so a pretty 'fun' day there on these charts! Presumably this is why they suggest 37C could be reached especially if the thunderstorms hold off long enough.

You really can't say the next heatwave isn't uncertain or in FI.. That's the 4th ECM run in a row that doesn't show the main heat building over us. GFS runs varying, and the GFS at T+240 is the GFS at T+240. Trends at that range have not verified a few times this summer (even if it's the unsettled ones so far) Now I don't expect, or want, us to not get any more warm settled/hot weather this summer (Surely at least a warm ridge will happen later next week I'd hope), but you can't say it's impossible that things go the wrong way and we end up morechangeable/average longer term, especially after what happened to this weekend. ECM at day 10 could even be heading that way. It's FI of course so it could be wrong, but in either direction. Although still the anomalous heat persists across Scandinavia and/or Finland. That's where the epicentre of this summer's heat anomaly has been located. Also,I can't see how the anomaly charts can be better or pick up any trend before the model products (ensemble means etc) that they reflect, even if they are more consistent than varying operational runs longer term.

Yes if it's hot anywhere it's hot everywhere based on how it's presented by the media. People seem to think the 'stay out of the sun' and heat health warnings apply to here. Some holiday makers especially if from abroad may be rather surprised that this is apparently a heatwave haha. The radio talked about 38C today in the SE! I'd love the GFS at around t+276 to be right but it's the GFS at t+276.

I'm not sure, often things like that seem to happen here when something interesting would otherwise happen. It's actually reached 26C here so I wonder what we would have had without the cloud, but the sea breeze will arrive by the time the sun might come out now. Typical. There were a poor couple of days at the start of July when the rest of the country was hot and sunny still. Of course I can't really complain about this summer at all, just frustrating that it was previously shown to be much better this weekend.

Well this weekend looks poor now! temps in the teens both days, possibly enough rain for July to finish above average for me! Even the less wet looking ECM is the worst ECM run so far for me (this forecast only shows the 1pm-7pm rainfall). Met office forecast wet and windy all day Sunday, gusting 40mph! This coincides nicely with my 10 days off work and the one weekend I have booked with friends.... These charts are far, far more unsettled than the ones that kept getting labelling wrong, hilarious etc, due to them supposedly over-doing the low. Of course, if my location was being affected by the heatwave that the radio is going OTT about.. I may not be so bothered by this 'blip'. To top it off even tomorrow has downgraded here (21c lol), and we've had un-forecast cloud all morning that is still refusing to go and is reforming now.

With the warm SST's I wonder if given the right set ups we could have more convection/thundery activity around our coasts this Autumn. Having said that the +3-4C anomalies are likely from surface stratification in light winds/sea state, not sure how much these would reduce from a good gale to mix things up (or even what is now forecast this weekend for southwestern areas). You can see the cooler areas where tidal mixing/upwelling occurs. (The France map seems to be of a higher resolution, and have slightly different values for some reason).

True for the UKMO perhaps having looked again, admittedly I read this as a shallow low over the south (did look like one on WZ) I feel it would be hard to avoid the cool air after that T+144 chart though GFS gives me rain and ECM looks more likely to for me Yes hardly a bad run just a trend for more unsettled influence, my thoughts are it would probably only be above average in the East/SE on Saturday/Sunday and Tuesday/Wednesday.

Yes ECM makes it 4/4 for rain this weekend for me. My July rainfall total may not be too far from average at this rate. Of course a couple days ago far less unsettled looking charts were said to be wrong. The plume on Thursday/Friday looks like a much more eastern version of the 1st July 2015, and that was only 24C here when Heathrow got the July record.

I heard a tourism boss from Cornwall was complaining about the heat health alerts being OTT.. however it' the low 20's in Cornwall. Basically it seemed he thought Cornwall was included, which reflects the 'its hot somewhere so it's hot everywhere' nature of reporting (and possibly that if Wiltshire is in the same region as Cornwall for the alerts so if Wiltshire may scrape the criteria, Cornwall is coloured orange)..

It's warm but there are no heatwave conditions here, normal for not everywhere to be affected of course. But it is a little annoying that because it's hot for a few days somewhere, to the media/BBC etc that often means it's hot for everyone. Even the local SW news yesterday started with 'on the hottest day of the year' ? I see the cooler incursions are upgrading though, and increasingly looking like rain again at the weekend for me. But don't worry the heat never leaves because it might still reach 25C in Kent. I'd better hope the GEM and UKMO are wrong to have any hope of me finishing with a mean maxima of 25C this July! Even GFS has 18C and rain on Sunday... I'm sure these are far more unsettled than the charts some were saying were 'wrong/too unsettled' etc.. although GFS has still been labelled wrong tonight despite GEM/UKMO looking more unsettled. The trend from day 10 is nice but it's often wrong at that range, and many GFS runs that do bring the heat only give a 1-3 day plume. Just adding this for a bit of balance.

A low of 10.8C last night so the house is a pretty comfortable temperature. Currently sunny and 21.9C. I wonder if Bournemouth Airport saw a high temperature reading yesterday? http://www.bournemouthecho.co.uk/news/16371751.firefighters-tackling-blaze-at-bournemouth-airport/

A max of 27.0C yesterday, though a fairly breezy sea breeze kept it at 24-25C most of the afternoon. Unexpectedly overcast and humid this morning, even though it all broke up slightly east of here. A brief max of 26.4C at 3:20pm in a sunny interval, but about 23C after that with a sea breeze in more continuous sunshine. Min was 16.3C.