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Wales123098

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Wales123098 last won the day on September 29 2010

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  1. British Chambers of Commerce Quarterly Survey A survey of 8,000 businesses show that key indicators for the economy are at their highest since before the financial crisis begun. The UK economy is expected to strengthen further in the coming months following on from 0.9% growth in Q4. Encouragingly in the Manufacturing sector five indicators including orders and employment are at record highs. Confidence in the sector is at its highest since 1989. This suggests the UK recovery is no longer purely based on consumer spending and that manufacturing is soaring. Firms from all sectors are overwhelmingly looking to invest, create jobs and export. Order books in the services sector jumped to a 9 year high while export sales and order were at their highest on record (survey begun in 1989). This suggests the strong pound is not hindering UK exports and the trade gap could shrink significantly in coming months. Worries remain about lending to business which is hindering expansion plans. http://uk.reuters.com/article/2014/01/07/uk-britain-bcc-idUKBREA0600520140107 SMMT Car Sales UK New Car sales rose to a 5 year high in December. In 2013 as a whole car sales rose by 10.5% to 2.25million. This means the UK is now a larger car market than France and the second largest in Europe after Germany. Jobs Market 31% of employees are thinking of looking to find new jobs in 2013 as a rapidly improving jobs market creates opportunities. This is likely to lead to employees raising wages as they fight to retain staff. Companies will do this as its a very expensive process to recruit and train new employees. They also don't want to lose good employees to competitors. This goes back to what I was talking about with supply and demand of labour. As supply of labour decreases (fall in unemployment) and demand increases (growing economy), the price of labour rises. Much better wage rises are in the pipeline if current trends continue especially among professional fields. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/jobs/10552294/More-workers-eye-the-exit-as-economy-strengthens.html
  2. UK Services PMI UK All Sector PMI slows in December following weaker than expected Services PMI. (Composite PMI 59.5) All Sector PMI for Q4 suggests growth of 1.0%. That would bring growth as a whole for 2013 to 3.1% based on 0.5% in Q1, 0.8% in Q2, 0.8% in Q3 and 1.0% in Q4. The Services PMI was at 58.8 down from 60.0 in November and 60.0 expected. Confidence about the future PMI rose to 73.5, highest since March 2010. Employment was rising at the second strongest rate on record (in the PMI series). Lloyds Business Confidence Survey UK business confidence rose to its highest level in 20 years. Investment intentions are at their highest in 19 years. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/10552445/British-companies-the-most-optimistic-for-20-years.html
  3. I'm just stating whats going on in the economy as I see it on the internet. I have to do constant research for my assignments and exams, just sharing what I find with you lot to add a bit of substance to this thread because when I looked on here before it was full of Tory bashing without any actual substance on you know the UK economy. It's not my personal optimism, although I'm becoming increasingly optimistic. I graduate next year and will obviously be looking for a job, hopefully in finance. To see increasingly encouraging news on the economy and jobs outlook is very good news for me. I've been lucky to be in education during the tough years instead of seeking work. Yes hopefully real wages will start rising in due course, inflation is pretty much bang on target at 2.1% and rising demand in the economy will eventually lead to rising wages. My guess is that real wages will start rising in late 2014 or early 2015.
  4. How about the 250,000 rise in employment in the 3 months to October alone? With further large rises in employment in the pipeline. But I'm guessing all these jobs go to the 1%... How about the increased job security for hundreds of thousands of retail workers who are seeing business pick up? (see retail results from the last 2 days). How about the strong rise in housebuilding, new homes. Bit by bit the spare capacity in the economy will erode if current conditions continue and as I've said previously, WAGES will rise as a result. It's a matter of time before businesses have no choice but to raise wages as they fight to retain and recruit good staff. This is all simple economics. We've just been through a huge downturn and recession and there is a lot of spare capacity in the economy, how can wages rise when there is all that spare capacity? The fact of the matter is, we ARE moving in the right direction, jobs are being creating and that spare capacity is being eroded. Supply and demand of Labour influences the price of that Labour. Over the last 5 years there has been a lot of supply, not much demand, hence the reason wages have stagnated. That is changing.
  5. UK Business Confidence 4 out of 5 leaders of the UK's largest companies expect their business to pick up over 2014 but they have concerns about household budgets, productivity and the fast approaching general election. The annual survey carried out by Ipsos Mori (since 1981) showed 93% of 105 business leaders expect the British economy to improve over the next 12 months. However over 50% of the leaders say they don't expect the economy to be 'growing in a significant way' for another year as household finances weigh on business. Questioned whether they thought the Coalition Government's Economic Policies would improve the UK economy in the long-run 83% said they will. Steve Varley, the head of Ernst & Young said political risks are the biggest threat over the next 2 years with worries of tension in the current government, worries about the anti-business sediment coming from Labour and also the Scottish Independence referendum. 87% of respondents said that politicians had a poor understanding of business. A Financial Times Poll of 100 leading economists also showed that economists believe the UK economy will strengthen in 2014. There was consensus among economists that the UK government was right to stick to its plans for fiscal consolidation despite criticism from the IMF and others in early 2013. The average of the economists forecasts was for growth of 2.4% this year but later revisions are likely to bring the actual growth rate to 3%. A slim majority of economists surveyed said that the recent upturn in growth vindicated the Chancellor George Osborne. http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/34f1fe70-7308-11e3-8e87-00144feabdc0.html#axzz2pMKANADZ http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/440fc51a-6bfe-11e3-a216-00144feabdc0.html#axzz2pMKANADZ
  6. UK Construction PMI "Sharp rate of construction output maintained in December" The UK construction sector saw a slight slow down in December, the PMI was at 62.1, down from 62.6 in November. However this still signals very rapid growth in the sector. All areas of the construction sector rose. Encouragingly the Commercial Construction sub sector surged in the month, suggesting the recovery in the sector is becoming more broad-based and isn't purely driven by the resurgent housing market. A net +47% of respondents expect business activity to pick up further in 2014. Only 10% of construction companies expect business activity to decline. The sector has now been growing for 8 consecutive months. Employment also rose sharply in the sector and there has been an expansion in the construction workforce for 7 consecutive months which is the longest period of job creation in the sector in 5 1/2 years. Overall the construction sector posted its best quarter since Q3 2007. http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/e7c63705c934450187ecbb341df4e252 House Prices & Mortgage Approvals House prices rose at their fastest pace in 4 years in December according to Nationwide. House prices rose 8.4% year on year in December. Nationwide said that years of limited construction of new homes that pre-dated the 2008-09 financial crisis meant that even a small increase in demand was leading to price rises.Other factors behind rising prices included falling unemployment and a generally brighter economic outlook, said Robert Gardner, Nationwide's chief economist. Prices across the country remain 5% below their peak in 2007. The figures show a stark difference in price rises depending on region. In London prices rose by 14.9% year on year. Manchester saw a huge rise in house prices, up 21% year on year but the North West as whole saw prices rise by just 5%. http://uk.reuters.com/article/2014/01/03/uk-britain-property-nationwide-idUKLNEA0200120140103 Bank of England data shows mortgage lending hit a 5 year in November but lending to business was down. "Britain's economy enjoyed some of the fastest growth of any major industrialised economy in the first nine months of 2013, and a strong fourth-quarter gross domestic product reading later this month could put it on track for its best year since 2007." Mortgage approvals hit 70,758 which is the highest since January 2008 but is well below pre-crisis levels when they often surpassed 90,000. This is boosted by around 6,000 thanks to the governments help to buy scheme. Lending to business was down 3.9% on a year earlier. http://uk.reuters.com/article/2014/01/03/uk-britain-lending-idUKBREA0208A20140103 Next Sales Clothing retailer Next reported sales up 11.9% between November 1st and December 24th on the same period on a year ago. Sales in the year to December were up 5%. It's shares hit an all time high today surging by 47% in the last year. This follows strong results from Britain's other major retailers yesterday. http://uk.reuters.com/article/2014/01/03/uk-next-idUKBREA0205A20140103 Local article from here in South Wales. Christmas joy for retailers. £1million being spent in Cardiff City centre everyday. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-25579185 How can anyone say there is no recovery? There clearly is.
  7. I know what YouGov is and if a group is paying YouGov a LOT of money to produce research, I'm sure YouGov will do anything to keep that customer in the future. So just because its YouGov doesn't mean its going to be unbiased. I'm sure you endorse YouGov's polls on the Scottish Independence referendum then? If this YouGov survey is valid, so is the companies polls on independence. I'm not denying the fact that inflation is outstripping wages and for a lot of people they are still yet to feel the recovery, but lets look at the ECONOMIC fundamentals as to why this is the case instead of going 'its all the Tories fault'. I've listed the most probable reason why wages are yet to rise strongly on a previous comment. Also you did make the YouGov survey very political, pretty much saying there was no recovery (when all the evidence clearly shows it is (as a man of science look at the data coming from the UK economy)). We have only just started seeing a 'real' recovery, businesses are recovering and taking on staff (not public sector spending rising as was the case in the premature growth spurt under Labour in 2010) and when the spare capacity in economy erodes, wages will undoubtedly rise as the conditions for wage growth will increasingly become prevalent. So basically you only use the data that suits your agenda.
  8. If it wasn't for government action to reduce mortgage rates i.e. deficit reduction plan that has kept confidence in the UK economy many families would be facing eviction from their homes. Many in this country seem to forget we've just been through the biggest recession and downturn in a century, things do take time to improve and we should be grateful our economy is actually relatively successful in comparison to most of Europe where there is double-digit unemployment and they are STILL contracting. 2013 was a turning point and things are looking up. Eventually the brighter economic prospects WILL feed through to higher wages. People need to do some studying on the economic cycle.
  9. Your making everything political again instead of stating the facts. Also a TUC commissioned survey was hardly going to be 'unbiased'. Businesses disagree with your sediment. Business confidence is high, crucially among SMEs too, jobs are being created. Yes the recovery is not feeding through to wages, but it is feeding through to jobs and with 2.39mn unemployed, this is important. Maybe the reason wages aren't rising is because there is still spare capacity in the UK economy, you know the 2.39mn unemployed. Generally when there is spare capacity in the economy, there is not much in the way of demand pull inflation, hence the reason wages aren't rising. If unemployment keeps falling at its current pace (and don't give me its all zero-hour part time jobs, look at the stats 'man of science', you'll see that this simply isn't the case) the spare capacity in the economy will gradually erode and wages will undoubtedly start to rise as companies fight to retain and recruit good employees. Wish people would actually look at the economics, and stop treating this page as the political thread. British Manufacturing PMI Meanwhile, British manufacturing grew strongly again in December, but at a slightly slower pace than in November. The PMI for Manufacturing was at 57.3 which is amongst the strongest in the World. The sector is on course to post growth of 1% in Q4. Growth in production and new orders is at its highest in 22 years of PMI surveys. The employment aspect of the survey was also very strong with jobs being created across the sector. http://uk.reuters.com/article/2014/01/02/uk-pmi-manufacturing-britain-idUKBREA0109720140102 There is most definitely a broad-based recovery in the United Kingdom at the moment even if its yet to feed through to wages. The UK economy is outperforming most of the developed World.
  10. British Pound Citigroup says that British Pound will be the global safe haven currency in 2014 as the strengthening recovery brings in investment and the prospect of BoE rates starting to rise. The UK Pound hit a 2 year high against the US Dollar peaking at $1.6578 on Friday. Citigroup estimate the Pound will rise to £1 = $1.70 by the end of the year and maybe as high as £1 = $1.80. Against the Euro the Pound is expected to rise to £1= €1.25. The £ rose by nearly 30% against some currencies in 2013 such as the Indonesian Rupiah and notably up 18% against the Australian Dollar. Of course this is good news if your a traveller, stronger pound = more bang for your buck abroad. But it's terrible news for the UK's export market, as a stronger pound makes British products more expensive abroad, so a rising pound wont do much to decrease the UK's huge trade deficit. But good news in other ways as it makes imports such as petrol and food in to the UK cheaper. One of the main reasons for the price of petrol dropping to £1.27 per litre from £1.36 per litre (at my local garage anyway) over the last few months is because of the stronger pound; the global price of oil has barely moved. If oil prices remain where they are and the Pound strengthens further against the USD, then petrol & diesel prices should fall further. Worth bearing in mind, the UK Pound is still much lower than it was prior to the 2008 Financial Crash. In the early-mid 2000s the pound often traded at over £1 = $2USD. Article here: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/currency/10539579/Pound-will-be-safe-haven-currency-of-2014-says-Citigroup.html Meanwhile in other economic news; UK Jobs Market Nearly 2 out every 3 companies expect to hire permanent staff over the next 3 months according to a well respect REC survey of 600 companies. This follows ONS data earlier this month which showed a huge 250k surge in employment in the latest employment statistics with the unemployment rate falling to 7.4%. The REC data shows the job market strengthening even further which could signal the 7.0% rate set by the BoE being reached much earlier than first thought. This could lead to earlier BoE interest rate rises which ties in with the UK Pound continuing to strengthen. Article: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/currency/10539579/Pound-will-be-safe-haven-currency-of-2014-says-Citigroup.html
  11. The SNP is openly a left wing party. If you vote for the SNP you are a leftie. I vote Conservative that makes me moderately right wing. You said the CEBR is right wing so therefore its a group of Tories. So don't turn that one around on me. Anyway as this is the thread about the British economy not politics.
  12. The projection is not made on stuff out of thin air you know. Economics is a science, a science of money and projections are often made and respected. If your an SNP voter, in my book that makes you a leftie and as an SNP supporter the British economy out pacing most of the developed World is bad for the referendum (on the yes side) as it does indeed show Scotland is not weak by being in the UK. This could be a reason why you personally might want the UK to stay weak for the next year or so, not saying you do. As for others on here who constantly deny statistics as being fudged, they might want the UK not to succeed as they dont want the Tories to be vindicated on the economy come 2015. Lefties don't worry me, it just winds me up when I see people calling ONS, Markit, IMF and so on statistics as lies just because they show something they don't want to see. The way the likes of the ONS compiles data hasn't changed much since the last Labour govt was in office, to go around saying the figures are fudged etc is just ignoring the reality. Anyway I've made my point, I would like this thread to be about the state of the British economy, NOT political opinion which seems to be the case at the moment. Heres an interesting article you might want to read about the CEBR report. The article analyses what the CEBR is saying. http://wallstreetpit.com/102026-britains-ascendancy-europes-decline/
  13. The CEBR is not claiming THIS is what the positions of the largest economies will be in 2030. Its saying what it COULD be based on their forecasts. The report is not dog biscuits either and yes they do make new reports every year, hence its an ANNUAL report. As I said the projection is also similar to the likes of OECD and IMF projections, just on different time scales. That doesn't mean its wrong. Just look at the demographics of the UK and Germany. The UK population is growing strongly (Even without immigration) while the German population is declining, if that trend continues, then at some point maybe not in 2030 but within the next few decades the UK will overtake Germany. Simply being a right-wing think tank (I've searched online I can't find anywhere where it states its a right-wing think tank) doesn't mean its a Tory think tank either. Saying this report has been written up by a group of Tories in London is just wrong. Sorry for my provocative type of writing but as a second year economics undergraduate I came on here after a long time not bothering on netweather to see if I could add anything. All I can see is biased and left wing drivel from people who can't bear to see a Tory govt succeed on the economy. This thread should be about stating the facts of the British economy, not stating peoples political opinions. If you want to do that there is a UK politics thread. I'm willing to add to this page and state the facts, but from what I can gather this page is simply full of people going the 'statistics are wrong and fudged' and 'I hate the rich Tories'.
  14. 1. It's still deemed unlikely that the UK will leave the EU & the consequences of the UK leaving the EU are also up for debate. 2. Again its deemed very unlikely that Scotland will leave the United Kingdom, the report focuses on what the UK consists of today, obviously if Scotland voted to leave next year then the annual report which is released every December would reflect this next year. 3. The report says that the prospect of controlled but fairly high immigration in to the UK is one of the reasons for the UK's good prospects. Even if immigration to the UK is slowing, the birth rate is currently at its highest since 1972. 4. Again obviously if a Labour government is elected in 2015 and follows policies similar to that of Hollande's the UK's prospects could change dramatically. We already know that Labour want to raise corporation tax after the Tories have cut it. These policy announcements by Labour would undoubtedly hurt the UK's prospects. The report cites that competitive taxes in the UK is a reason for its success. 5. If France elects a centre-right more business friendly govt which is deemed likely in the next elections then France's position might improve, indeed if Germany elects a government from the left which raises taxes on business, then Germany could fall behind the UK even sooner. 6. Conflicts in the middle east and their effect on oil prices will effect most western countries equally there I see no reason why that would change the positions on the table (in terms of western economies). 7. Natural disasters would obviously change prospects There are many variables which could effect the table. Hence its an annual table, its a projection, its not set in stone, its what that business group and others predict. Also since when were the highly respected CEBR a group of Tories? It's important projections are made so investors can decide where the safest bet is to place their money. That being said in economics NOTHING is certain, doesn't mean that these projections can't be made, they are made, just not by the CEBR but by the OECD, the IMF and others and they all pretty much say the same thing just with slightly different time frames. Just because you don't like what it says doesn't mean you can discredit it. Search UK economy in Google and read up about current business confidence from large FTSE 100 companies to SMEs, confidence in the UK at the moment is booming, jobs are being created at an incredibly fast rate in the latest quarter and yes business groups do support the policies of David Cameron and as far as I can see the policies are working. The UK outperformed most western developed countries by far so far this year bar the United States. Forget politics and actually look at the data coming from the UK, its impressive, our economy is improving and we should celebrate it because eventually it will feed through to standards of living. This forum is about the state of the UK economy, not a forum about constantly bashing David Cameron, if you want to do that, go on the politics forums.
  15. Its not the only economic organisation to forecast the UK overtaking Germany. Others have done so too. The CEBR projection saying by 2030 is different to the rest though who say by 2050. Its not really a surprise if you think about it, the UK population is growingly strongly (as a result of the highest birth rate in decades and fairly high net migration) while the German population is or is about to decline. The UK economy grew twice as strongly as the German economy so far this year and much much faster than the French. Whether the UK's GDP growth is sustainable or not is up to debate but if the UK maintains growth of 2.5% pa for the next 2 decades while Germany and France only have growth of 1.5% pa then yeah the UK would eventually become the top dog in Europe.
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