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Severe Blizzard

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  1. Severe Blizzard
    A major disappointment. Now up to Bust No.24.
    No.21: Sunday 5th June: Failed forecast of scattered thundery showers. One large cell near Wellington, Somerset.
    No.22: Monday 6th June: Failed forecast of scattered thundery showers for local area. Widespread and intense activity over west again, Ireland and Irish sea.
    No.23: Tuesday 7th June: MAJOR DISAPPOINTMENT AND LET-DOWN. The last two entries were mildly annoying - today's bust has been the most infuriating event for many years. This could have been the chance to get a major thunderstorm in Guildford. Usual story - storms over the South Coast, Brighton as usual, more develop inland, to the East of Guildford again, typically just too far away to hear the thunder before they are shunted away east. Newsworthy weather for London, again, like the annoyances on 9th June 1992 and 3rd August 2002, to name two, when Guildford misses out by a small margin yet again. This eastward shunting of storms developing just to the east of my locality is sickeningly annoying as this is what made up the entire summer last year. 2016 is another dreadful year for storms and the deprivation and frustration of seeing others gloating IMBY posts is infuriating. NO storms club is no good as that is just inane light hearted banter and does not cater for the seriously deprived and frustrated amateur observer who is stuck in his / her home town due to work commitments and being unable to drive to chase. 
    Also very annoying to have the zonal garbage back at the weekend resulting in more rain in useless and annoying small quantities which will no doubt coincide with outdoor activities like cycling - something to work off the anger after days like Tuesday 7th and Wednesday 8th June.
    After having to wait for 6 hr from the onset of the London storms - there was SLIGHT thunder at 7:32 pm to 7:48 pm (8 quiet rumbles) resulting in a cycle storm chase to a quieter area away from the incessant traffic. This storm just died off  as it moved S.E.wards. One more quiet rumble at 11:54 pm from cell to north. NO RAIN FELL LOCALLY during this time but colleague cycling home from work got caught in downpour to east of Guildford at 11;30 pm and he estimated 6~8 mm rain fell. There was also a good storm just west of Fleet, Hants where I originally lived.    
    No.24: Wednesday 8th June: Usual story, usual areas get the storms. London, west midlands and Birmingham. Hopeful build up of Cu and Cb to N.E. after 3 pm. This leads to irritating drizzle shower and no thunder.
    Only thunder today was 4 quiet rumbles at 12:37 am to 12:50 am probably to the north. 
    Possibly a more useful way to measure thunder would be in estimated discharges through the months / year rather than days on which thunder was heard - last year had 6 days all with quiet thunder and <10 discharges on each. So far, the 2016 count is 3 days but this includes a total of 14 quiet rumbles and no close discharges. The average number of thunder days in Guildford (1992~2011) was 16 days.
    Not at all happy about zonal dross returning and probably have to wait well into July before another stab at any decent weather. Funny (not) how no surprise thunder events ever develop in situations conducive to such development, or have had a past good history but failing to deliver nowadays, yet other locations seem to do OK. What has Guildford done to deserve all this brain-numbing boring dross all the time? The lack of activity is hardly in compensation for an active period as we suffered the awful years in 2009 (6 days), 2010 (4 days) and 2011 (5 days), which had few but better storms than anything in 2015 and 2016 so far. 2012 (12 days) and 2013 (12 days) also lacked any decent events locally and the thunder in those years was 'single clap wonders' or 'cloud farts'. Only 2014 has been a decent year (20 days) and even then Guildford only really saw 3-4 impressive events, the others being 'slight', GOne are the dasy when thunder was recorded on 5 or 6 days in a month, often 2 or 3 months consecutively such as in the summers of 1982 and 1983. Now those were truly great vintage years, the latter with a good summer too, and also after decetn winters with snow. 
    Feeling VERY DISGRUNTLED at present - how I wish I could just up and leave and go to America and get away form the stuffy UK with its extremely boring weather, ridiculous cost of living and all the infuriating unfair political issues (now don't get me started on the 'I' word - just suffice to say, if we import all that 'stuff' from France, why can't we get French import thunderstorms surviving the channel and making landfall at Southampton - where Guildford has a chance before the ever-present eastward shunt).
     
  2. Severe Blizzard
    May has yielded NO thunder (or even any distant lightning) in Guildford.
    There have been 20 'busts' in 2016 now - a truly horrendous figure. Getting thoroughly bored writing about missing out on thunderstorms while seeing the usual areas enjoying another 'good' convective and thundery year. Can't believe that the sum total of two 'good' convective months, April and May, can only deal out two rumbles locally (26th April) and one of those two months is completely thunder-free, again.
    After this so-called thundery and convectionally active spring, there will be a compensatory quiet boring summer - so Guildford area has to suffer yet more boredom having missed out on the only chances early in the season.
    I have never seen such protracted dreadful lacking conditions and after such an awful year last year as well.    
    At the end of the season, I will publish my Excel spreadsheet showing the true extent and detail of this let-down year.
  3. Severe Blizzard
    Frontal system crossing UK was supposed to bring heavy rainfall and was NOT supposed to be thundery. S.E. gets massive downgrade with barely any rain while there was an unpleasant gusty wind instead. Meanwhile, parts of the Midlands including Bolton, Lancashire saw big upgrade with outbreak of thunderstorms along the cold front - this was a surprise and not forecast. Cannot remember when there was last such a surprise here in Guildford, possibly 28th July 2014!  
    Firmly get the impression that nothing really interesting ever happens in this part of southern England these days - the North seem to have all the excitement and decent weather with high pressure areas bringing sunshine and pleasant temperatures while the south gets the gloom, wind and crummy temperatures as during March's anticyclonic period. North seem to get all the thunderstorms irrespective of the time of year, snow in decent quantities, forecasts of interesting events which verify, few downgrades, surprise extra interesting events, more sunshine and more interesting temperature variation. Us, in the south get the complete opposite. The period from October 2014 to present is the worst 18 months for missing out on interesting events and suffering cack and dross I have ever had my misfortune to suffer, centring on that pathetic excuse for a year 2015 and its horrendous joke of a winter followed by even nastier summer and that truly vile November of incessant wind and drizzle.      
    Forecast for the next few days was for a continued chance (usually about 30~35%) of thunder and interesting showery conditions. Now it has been downgraded to barely any rainfall, very little thunder chance and more wind. What is the chance that this downgrade forecast is the one that will verify? Additionally, I go on holiday to Cornwall soon - what's the betting that it will be back to zonal dross and crap drizzle filth just for the week I am there, while in the S.E. there is a heatwave and plume for one day which brings the thunder event of a lifetime and I bl***y miss it, like the 14th June 2014 miraculous 4 hour thunderstorm in an anticyclonic northerly. This had been forecast 5 days previously and looked very unlikely to verify - when it did, it was considerably more severe than the forecast event. 
  4. Severe Blizzard
    Thunder heard at 4:31 pm from cell to N.E. giving heavy soft hail shower over Ripley at this time. Further rumble at 4:37 pm. First thunder heard for exactly 8 months, previous being 26th August 2015. Good to finally have our first event of the year, although it was not from an overhead source. There had been moderate soft hail showers at 3:43 pm and another at 7:30 pm (Guildford).
  5. Severe Blizzard
    More thundery showers in the south midlands, including Cambridgeshire areas and parts of East Anglia. 
    Thundery showers were supposed to also affect areas to the south such as Surrey. Also annoying that thunder risk over all the next few days has been downgraded for Guildford area - no doubt this will verify as nothing thundery or snow-related ever upgrades for this location. Meanwhile, another hard-earned day off (Friday 15th) to be ruined by the usual drizzle and light rain dross with another gutless depression over southern England that will be electrically inactive with no surprises thrown in - well not here or at Fleet where I will be visiting.
  6. Severe Blizzard
    Convergence line develops over area just to the south of Guildford with hopeful darkening of sky to S.S.W. at 1700. Light shower of large droplets at 1718~1730. Cu develop overhead and to north after 1730 and evident heavy shower to north and N.E. to at least 1900.
    Rainfall radar showed sferics only 4 miles from home. No thunder actually heard. 
    Also, quite good thunderstorm evident over Canterbury earlier in afternoon and the usual traditional areas that 'do well' (Peterborough and parts of East Anglia) enjoy another thunder event during evening.
    I am well aware that favoured spots in the UK will get more thunder than my local area but it's constantly getting nothing while certain areas are favoured over and over again that has made the last 18 months some of the most uninteresting and predictably boring weather I have ever had my misfortune to suffer.
  7. Severe Blizzard
    Bust No.5; Thursday 7th April: Morning drizzle finally gave way to decent convection after 1500. There was an impressive heavy shower at 1635~1650 giving ice pellets at 1640 and slightly larger 4~5 mm hail at 1642~1647. An impressive shower and so close to getting that elusive thunder - expecting a flash and bang during the most intense part of the rain and hail mix. Some sferics observed to the north and east including the Twickenham area and, earlier to the N.W. over Reading and Berkshire.  
    Bust No.6; Tuesday 12th April: Thundery shower risk was quite high according to forecast. Unexpected thunder activity in Cholsey and Pangbourne area at 1245~1315 according to reports. Just typical that I was passing through this area by train exactly 24 hours earlier. Sunny periods and dry throughout at Guildford. 
    Guildford still waits for its first thunder of the year where 26th August 2015's pathetic distant muffled rumble was the last occasion thunder was heard here. Makes me wonder if there will be any thunder event this year when decent situations cannot deliver and it will no doubt be back to more zonality soon ushering in another dreadful summer. 
  8. Severe Blizzard
    [b]1992[/b]
    Severe overnight thunderstorms experienced at Fleet, Hants, only hours after returning from Cornwall holiday (Par). A very muggy and humid morning on the beach and low cloud broke up to allow hot sunshine on Saturday 8th. My fear that an active plume event had hit home areas and I had missed a fantastic storm were groundless - had to wait to get home to find out - no internet or versatile mobile phones in 1992 (just 'brick' phones!). During the train journey home around 6~9 pm on the 8th there were showers when passing through Somerset and Wiltshire and I realised that tonight may the night. Arrive home at Fleet at 9 pm and the first thunder was rolling at 10 pm. There was little activity to follow until the early hours of the 9th. A short sharp thunderstorm occurred between 2:25 am and 2:55 am. There was torrential rain (14.5 mm at Fleet and 18.0 mm at Guildford) with almost continuous lightning and some moderate thunder. The lightning was very impressive and far outweighed the thunder. The main feature was the wind - there were very strong gusts during this thunderstorm and I don't remember another night storm accompanied by so much wind. Le Harve, Northern France had reported winds of 90 mph from this outbreak. Over the years, I have developed a 'rule' that if Cherbourg and the Le Havre area get thunderstorms in a particular plume situation, then it is almost certainly 'game on' for Hants and Surrey. This 'model' or rule has failed in recent years - surprise surprise! At 2:50 am there was a very bright flash and a lovely loud crash of thunder. There was much less activity to follow and the rain soon died out. After a disappointing start in 1992 with local areas missing every event (much like this year) we came up trumps twice with the thunderstorms of Monday 20th July and Sunday 9th August.

    [b]1994[/b]
    On holiday in Cornwall and staying at Par. Visiting Falmouth on this Tuesday, the altostratus thickened as a low approached from the S.S.W. This incorporated a warm plume and there was an inevitable thundery element. Rain started at Falmouth around 2 pm and was moderate. There was sporadic thunder, some of which was quite close and enough to make the floors vibrate in some of the shops near the harbour. On going back to St Austell and Par at 6 pm, the train journey passed through some very heavy rain. I had a rain gauge set up where I was staying at Tywardreath, nr. Par and I was looking forward to recording possibly the highest total I had seen so far. On arriving at Par, there was a new burst of very heavy rain which flooded the car park of the Polmear restaurant at Par and even the roof leaked in this bungalow building. A wet walk back to Twywardreath was rewarded with a missing raingauge! The people I was staying with had mown the lawn after I left that morning and forgotten to reposition the gauge - typical. However, I found it 'hidden' in a sheltered spot the next morning and recorded 23.5 mm - very much an underestimate seeing as it rained heavily all night.
    Interestingly, Falmouth was officially the wettest location on both 9th (16 mm) and 10th (46 mm). I was definitely in the right area and could have recorded a total of 60 mm or so.

    [b]1999[/b]
    A channel depression much like the one on this date 5 years previous brought heavy thundery rain to southern England. Cornwall, where I was staying, received little rain. There were large totals during the evening and early into the 10th. 45 mm was recorded in Guildford between the 7th and 11th.

    [b]2001[/b]
    Thunder 1132 GMT then Tl to 1220 GMT. Mod. rain 1140~1215 GMT. Further mod./heavy rain 1510~1800 GMT. (from COL /WON entry). This storm brought severer conditions to many parts of the S.E. including 3 funnel clouds seen in one go at Maidenhead and heavy hail covering the ground at Coggeshall further east. 12.5 mm fell at Guildford and 25.0 mm at Fleet.

    [b]2003[/b]
    Very hot and sunny. Go on holiday in the early hours of this Saturday morning. Still 20 deg.C at 4 am under clear skies. 34.0 deg.C reached at Fleet and 33.8 deg.C at Guildford.

    [b]2004[/b]
    No event today, but visited Boscastle on this Monday afternoon and remarked to my mother about flooding when I stood on the bridge over the main river. Speculate that the river would never flood! A week later at that time of day I would be proved incorrect - big time!
  9. Severe Blizzard
    [b]2002[/b]
    Guildford: Heavy shower at 1540~1600 GMT then 1725~1727 GMT. 4.5 mm. Thunderstorm to N.W. moving East towards London between 1809~2010 GMT. Lightning observed in cloud 1900~2005 GMT. Some spectacular pink-orange coloured forked lightning. Torrential rain and some flooding reported from Bisley and Wood Street (North Guildford).
    This outbreak got very close to the site with torrential rain and flooding only 5 km to the north.
    The severest conditions were about 10~20 km north of the site with very large totals in a short space of time. A colleague delivering shopping to a customer in Ash was marooned in her 'home shopping' van around 1900 GMT due to extremely heavy rain and flash flooding.
    Local totals include: Sandhurst, Berks: 54.9 mm / Crowthorne: 32.7 mm / Bracknell: 28.5 mm~32.0 mm.

    [b]2007[/b]
    Guildford: 31.1 mm rainfall from evening torrential downpour (unfortunately not observed – I was in Fleet where there was a very dark sky to East to South from 1830~2100 GMT with thunder to South from 1840~1910 GMT).
    Another part of Guildford received 55.0 mm from this event.
  10. Severe Blizzard
    [b]1981[/b]
    Big thunderstorm reported from Fleet in morning from about 7 am to 11 am. 25.5 mm rain fell. I was away in Cornwall and missed this event. Although I have always enjoyed thunderstorms, this was before my interest in weather really developed - that happened 5 months later with the fantastic snowy and cold 1981~1982 winter and thundery 1982 summer.
    This storm was more severe at Guildford and records show about 32 mm rain fell in two distinct storms, one before 8 am and the other after 10 am.

    [b]1982[/b]
    No thunder event locally - but towering cumulus developed as they moved west from Fleet dumping over 50 mm rain on areas near Basingstoke, as thunderstorms broke out.

    [b]1997[/b]
    A dull and humid morning with the promise of thunder and heavy rain seemed to be a letdown. At 12:30 pm, the sky became very dull and there was sudden torrential rain after 1 pm with a few good flashes and bangs to follow. I recorded 25 mm rain at Guildford but my friend at East Horsley nearby had 44 mm. August 1997 was beginning to get its thundery reputation.

    [b]2003[/b]
    The heat increases and a lovely hot and sunny day saw temperatures reach 34 deg. C. This was thought to be the peak of the heatwave at the time. There was more excitement to come as the hot air continued to push north from a scorching hot and arid France in the next few days.

    [b]2008[/b]
    A disappointing thundery outbreak. See a couple hours of distant lightning to the east as a 'Kent clipper' moves N.E. and intensifies just missing Sussex and Surrey. This was the beginning of the current storm-starvation period we have been suffering for far too long now!

    [b]2009[/b]
    Another plume event like the previous year but with more rain and very little thunder. 24.0 mm fell at Fleet with a morning thunderstorm. 12.2 mm fell at Guildford in the evening as another pulse of heavy and less thundery rain moved north.
  11. Severe Blizzard
    [b]2004[/b]

    Guildford: Thunder 1441 GMT. Thunderstorm with heavy rain 1513~1540 GMT. Overhead discharge (Guildford, Tesco) at 1517 GMT. Thunder to 1600 GMT.
    FLEET: Thunderstorm with very heavy rain at times from 1520~1620 GMT. Slight hail. 13.0 mm rain. Torrential rain with minor flooding at Farnborough. (Extract from my Climatological Observers Link & Weather Observers Network returns).
  12. Severe Blizzard
    [b]1984[/b]
    Heavy overnight rain, from slow moving shallow depression near S.W. areas, was preceded by downpours in Cornwall and Devon. There were rumours of holidaymakers making a 'massed exodus' out of Teignmouth the previous (Friday) evening. 29.5 mm rain fell at Fleet.

    [b]1985[/b]
    A vigorous depression brings some very unsummer-like weather in a return to poor summer weather after a reasonable July. 14.5 mm fell at Fleet but totals were much higher in local areas such as Alton, Hants, where orographic factors contributed to the heavy rain. An amateur radio caller was talking about 'horizontal rain' in South Wales during this Sunday morning.

    [b]1990[/b]
    Last day of 30 deg.C+ heat at Fleet. Max. temp. was 34 deg.C. Return from Cornwall holiday on that Saturday evening. Internal walls in the upstairs of the house were hot from the heat, not just the walls adjoining external walls. Much heat stored up.

    [b]1994[/b]
    A very warm night. Min. temp. 20.2 deg.C at Guildford. Some impressive lightning overnight, especially before 0200. Very little rain.

    [b]1997[/b]
    Thundery showers in evening after the thundery frontal weather positioned over S.W. England since Saturday 2nd starts to move north and east. A friend flying into Gatwick airport reported lightning flashing in clouds below the plane when approaching the south coast. This suggests altocumulus castellanus medium level instability. The showers were very localised with 4 mm rain at Fleet but only a few spots at Guildford.

    [b]1999[/b]
    Guildford: Moderate / heavy rain 1845~2150 GMT. Thunder 2045 & 2108 GMT. Torrential rain 2131~2134 GMT. 15.5 mm rainfall.

    [b]2010[/b]
    Guildford: Cb with dark base encroaching from N.W. from 1330. Surface wind direction was light S.W. Heavy thundery showers, with some very heavy rain from 1425 to 1503. Squally wind at times. In greater detail: Thunder approaching at 1425 with continued moderate thunder at 1428,1429,1431,1432, [i]1432[/i], 1433, 1435, 1437, 1440, 1441, 1442, 1444, 1447, 1453, 1455, 1457, [i]lightning only – horizontal blue CC fork to S.E. 1501[/i], 1503. [i]Lightning observations in italics. [/i]Heavy bursts of rain at 1426~1429, 1430~1433, 1434~1436 and large droplets at 1441~1442. Surface wind was north at 1455 and remained N.W. in the wake of the cold front. 2.5 mm rainfall. This was only the [u]second[/u] thunder event of 2010 here - another extremely poor year, like 2011 and 2012, but with much more of the country also receiving less thunder unlike in 2012 when it seems local areas are apt to miss all the events.
  14. Severe Blizzard
    [b]1969[/b]
    A very thundery and wet week ended with a spectacular deluge in S.E. and central southern England at the weekend of Saturday 2nd and early Sunday 3rd August. Although the action had been in the S.W. a few days earlier (Plymouth area and much of southern Cornwall had received 100 mm+ rain on the 28th July), it was now the turn of areas to the west of London to have some excitement (none of this 2012 'Guildford missing out' nonsense in 1969!). Thundery rain early on the 2nd yielded 15.5 mm at Guildford. The main activity was on the Saturday evening and early into Sunday 3rd. Thunderstorms dumped over 100 mm on Hook, Surrey late on the Saturday afternoon. This development brought thundery rain to Guildford around 6 pm before dying out. Meanwhile, a slow moving cold front made erratic eastward progress with heavy pulses of rain slowly moving north along its axis. Torrential rain lasted through into the Sunday morning. There are no notes in the records about thunder in the late evening of the 2nd, just heavy rain. Amounts included;
    Fleet: 52.0 mm.
    Guildford: 62.5 mm. Another site in Guildford recorded 55.0 mm as well as the 15.5 mm with a total of 70.5 mm in just over 24 hours.
    Reading: 28.0 mm
    Kew, London: 55.0 mm.

    [b]1982[/b]
    Sudden torrential rain and thunder around 6 pm at Fleet. 12 mm rainfall.

    [b]1983[/b]
    A cool and unstable N.W.ly covered the U.K. There were heavy thundery showers with hail in the S.E. I was on holiday in Cornwall and missed the event at Fleet, Hampshire. There was considerable hail, possibly 'large' (10 mm diameter) in a second torrential thundery shower around 3 pm. 12.5 mm rainfall. I once heard about walnut sized hail smashing greenhouses in the Alice Holt Forest area on this day.

    [b]1990[/b]
    The heat builds with maxima well over 30 deg.C. Par Beach in Cornwall, was almost too hot to walk on. When the tide came in the large expanse of sand (0.5 mile square) which had been heated by the intense sun resulted in some lovely warm water for swimming in.
  15. Severe Blizzard
    [b]1983[/b]
    Heavy overnight rain as cold front clears S.E. introducing cooler air. 8.5 mm overnight at Fleet and 27 mm at Guildford. Much of this rain was thundery.

    [b]1984[/b]
    An unsettled interlude in an otherwise 'good' summer. Windy evening with heavy rain in Cornwall which moved east. Heavy showers to follow with tornado near Doncaster or Conningsby. (?).

    [b]1991[/b]
    Heavy thunderstorms in the afternoon in Guildford. 12 mm or so and parts of the town were flooded.

    [b]1995[/b]
    A very hot day. Max. temp. 33 deg. C. Development of afternoon thunderstorms which were few and far between and scattered. Thunder at Guildford and this development moved west to give a severe storm and 75 mm+ rain over Cardiff.

    [b]1998[/b]
    Major development of storms over S.E. with quite severe thunderstorm moving S.W. near Guildford in afternoon. 27 mm rain fell at East Horsley but much less in Guildford. There was a major development to the south of the town in the afternoon where hail fell. A tornado was reported near Guildford but little is known about this development.

    [b]1999[/b]
    Maximum temperature 31.5°C. Thundery shower from 1437 to 1455. Torrential bursts of rain with clear irregular shaped hail 5~8mm dimensions, between 1438~1441. 4.5mm rainfall. Large Cb to north after 1630. During the shower there was hazy blue sky to the south and north. This development was quite small and intensified as it moved N.W.
  16. Severe Blizzard
    [b]1978[/b]
    Heavy rain fell overnight and into the daytime as a thundery low moved N.E. over southern England. Fleet, Hants received 30.5 mm raiin on the 30th and another 37.5 mm on the 31st, a total of 68.0 mm in 24 hours (evening to evening).

    [b]1981[/b]
    2nd morning of a Cornwall holiday having driven down on the afternoon of the Charles and Diana Royal Wedding (29th July). Thundery showers moved north overnight. There was little rain in Cornwall but some very close lightning strikes. There was a direct strike on the milking Parlour at Great Pelean Farm, nr. Tywardreath, at 7:57 am. The thunder woke me up with a start as the strike was only 100 metres away. Heavy rain affected other parts of southern England with 19 mm in the evening recorded at Fleet.

    [b]1983[/b]
    A thundery low moved N.E. over Cornwall with torrential rain near Culdrose (11 mm measured in a makeshift rain gauge while having a coffee in the afternoon). Only 1.5 mm at Great Pelean Farm. A cold front moving S.E. merged with the thundery rain over the S.W. with some good totals in southern England. Cooler and very windy in a fresh N.W.ly in Cornwall later as the cold front was less active further west.

    [b]1991[/b]
    Heavy overnight rain with 25 mm at Fleet. Rain affected Pavarotti Concert in London.

    [b]1998[/b]
    Thundery shower in late afternoon at Guildford. 7 mm rain.
  17. Severe Blizzard
    FLEET: 12.4 mm (est.).

    FRIMLEY: Hail at approx. 1100 & Thunder at 1300. (Reported to me).

    GUILDFORD: Moderate shower of large raindrops and slight hail at 1141~1145. Thunder 1143, TL 1152 & thunder 1157. Showers at 1236~1245 then 1325~1345 and prolonged shower at 1445~1525 with thunder at 1418, 1438, 1445 (TL), 1454 & 1500. Further shower at 1700~1730 with rainbow as shower moves east. A rather disappointing 4.5 mm rain here.
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