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Everything posted by bazookabob
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I'd be very surprised if we get anything other than snow here, not sure what the predicted dew points are but -5 T850s are more than low enough for this kind of event. It's just a case of waiting for the heavy precipitation to arrive lunchtime onwards. What's we've got now is just a bonus as far as I'm concerned.
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Well considering yesterday was supposed to be dry and our first snow wasn't forecast to arrive until about 10am today I'd say we're nicely ahead of the game. Once that easterly wind sets in then I expect the orographic lift everywhere west of the A1 to get things going. A surprising amount from last night already there as a base and fine flakes coming down
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Model Output Discussion - Snow Watch limited edition
bazookabob replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Whilst tomorrow's Amber warning does look at first glance to be focused on the Pennine chain, ofr here in Yorkshire it actually covers everywhere west of the A1 / Vale of York which includes a lot of major population centres, notably Leeds, Sheffield, Bradford and Wakefield to name a few. Even the yellow warning mentioned 5-10cm for this areas before the Amber was issued. I would suggest the M62 through West Yorkshire will be even more horrific tomorrow evening than usual! -
Few heavier bursts coming ashore in the Hull area now, will be interesting to see if F they make it across to give us a dusting after sunset, prior to tomorrow's predicted whiteout! I work in Cleckheaton, well inside the Amber warning and our work are famous for not letting us go home early no matter how much snow there is. So may just stay home if the forecast doesn't change by morning!
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I think we'll be fine if it turns out as they're expecting... The Amber warning splits Garforth in half, but past experience tells me that the rise/fall in elevation just east of the A1 is where any accumulation drop-off will occur. There certainly won't be any snow shadow in Kippax with an easterly, if anything its the opposite in an easterly, with our area marking the start of the rise in elevation between the Vale of York and the pennines. Everything to the east of the A1 is barely above sea level until you hit the Wolds.
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That's some big old totals they're forecasting for tomorrow, my main worry is that met office snow warnings are always wrong for here! Anyway, i'm bang on the Eastern border of the Amber, suspect anywhere west of the Vale of York (i.e. West of about Tadcaster) will do well if it goes down as expected. Incidentally, am I missing something, I went to bed last night expecting a clear sunny day today, but it's been snowing lightly for the past several hours! How can the forecast change so dramatically in the spade of 12 hours? That's the thing that's keeping me from getting too giddy about tomorrow's blizzard forecast!
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God grief the snow is miles away in Berwick on Tweed or something! Why in earth is the warning for so far south Once that band fizzles over Newcastle, its another bone dry cold spell of nothingness. This winter is not going well at all for us. Not sure what's happening in the southeast but they at least have something falling from the sky down there... again!