gottolovethisweather

Just to halt any confusion, which I suspect was partly caused by my posting last evening, I am expecting a very active week in terms of the weather. Of course, I cannot place said action over each and everyone's heads in here but I advise folk to follow some of my previous postings and those which showed Fax Charts, NMM output and the like. This week will be memorable for very windy weather, sharp Temperature falls, Hail, Thunder, Rain, Sleet and Snow. I am confident that some of the Snow will lie/lay/pitch on occasions. What else could anyone possibly want in one week of weather.

Is this clearer for you lot. Are we locking this thread any time soon or are we locking up its participants firstly. Please get back on topic and don't bite on the bait that others provide. Enjoy this upcoming week's weather wherever you are, it's going to be a memorable one for quite a few of us. Simply perfect models of late. I couldn't of made them any better myself. So good, I had to say things twice.

Are we locking this thread any time soon or are we locking up its participants firstly. Please get back on topic and don't bite on the bait that others provide. Enjoy this upcoming week's weather wherever you are, it's going to be a memorable one for quite a few of us. Simply perfect models of late. I couldn't of made them any better myself.

I must have read your mind, not I am actually confessing to that but take a look at my post above, as I honestly hadn't read yours right then. I'll make a bold prediction as of now, some folk are about to witness one of the most memorable weeks of winter weather yet. Come back next Sunday and see if this post was worthwhile. I confirm that I have not been drinking either, as under such circumstances I have been known to confess to all manner of unrelated things. Time for a lie down and ready myself for a week of weather madness.

Well spotted AWD. Timing will also be crucial as to what the embedded troughs deliver as they pass over our house roofs. I alluded to this fact in my post from earlier, which you may not have seen. http://forum.netweat...z/#entry2582642 FWIW, those Fax Charts are surely an.........................................................................

Roger J Smith is responsible, ask him. If he pulls this off, I'll have what Roger's having. Then again, perhaps I could claim some responsible, thanks largely to my analysis of the GFS on the 30th January.

Maybe it'll be party time again, AJ.

AWD, I think we are long overdue one, so maybe this year will produce it.

I am sorry that I have not been contributing much to this forum of late but I have been updating my Facebook page dedicated to the same cause. Should you wish to visit, the link is shown below. http://www.facebook.com/naturestimeline

Far too early to tell even at this range. Have a gander at my post from earlier to which I have copied below. http://forum.netweat...z/#entry2582642 A lot to play for in the coming week and my analysis from previously still stands as far as I am concerned. http://forum.netweat...20#entry2581174 It will largely be a case of radar and lamp-post watching this week I reckon. For now, one of the better analyses comes from TWS in my post above. I will also be awaiting what AWD thoughts are of late too.

A fair few folk in here, namely AWD for one, will like this particular analysis, courtesy of TWS from the MOD thread. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Max temps of 5-7C for the south seem plausible to me for the coming week- we'll be in a fairly cold Arctic air mass, but it won't be anything special, with 850hPa temperatures around -5 to -8C. For Scotland and northern England maxima of 3-5C will be more typical. We are still looking at a mix of sunshine and squally wintry showers late on Monday and into Tuesday, when there could be some pretty dramatic convection about, particularly over south-western Britain, with widespread hail and scattered thunderstorms. A pool of milder air from a depression core will sweep south-eastwards late on Tuesday and into Wednesday and will turn showers back to rain and sleet, with the possibility of an area of more general, frontal-type rain tied in with it, particularly for eastern areas. Indeed, Wednesday could well end up grey, raw and wet for a time over East Anglia and the SE. Showers are likely to turn back to snow from Wednesday afternoon onwards and it is looking likely that we'll have snow showers running down the eastern side of England until Friday. We are probably looking at overnight accumulations of snow and thaws in the daytime sunshine for the majority of North Sea areas, except in areas which catch a number of heavy snow showers. For the longer-term, we get a battle between cold continental and milder Atlantic air. The ECMWF continues to persist in showing a slack east to north-easterly flow starting next weekend, which would bring a mix of sunshine and snow showers, the majority of the showers in the east, but GFS continues to bring in Atlantic weather systems, though temperatures never really get higher than average. My feeling is that the Scandinavian high is unlikely to go away very quickly and that we will probably end up with an easterly spell in the third week. However, there is a high likelihood of the colder air at 600-900hPa air being mixed out from the SE, resulting in stratocumulus trapped underneath a layer of dry stable air and thus predominantly dry cloudy weather, rather than frequent snow showers for eastern and central areas. I think the ECMWF would bring this scenario if it ran out beyond T+240 but we'd have a few days of sunshine and snow showers beforehand, rather than belts of frontal rain and temps of 3-6C as suggested by GFS.

Indeed, hence my downgrade but then whose to say an upgrade won't come with something developing in the flow. More positively IanF appears upbeat too.

And also some of the NAE outputs are starting to show the latest chances, this courtesy of Coast ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/75744-south-west-central-southern-england-regional-discussion-26th-january-2013/page__st__680#entry2582440 And this from AWD http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/75744-south-west-central-southern-england-regional-discussion-26th-january-2013/page__st__680#entry2582527 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- I'll be watching the following 48 to 72 hours with much interest.

Best copy some posts to which I was referring to above, just in case you missed them from the other thread. This wonderful analysis from Jackone ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- i have done an analysis of the situation for Wales and have now changed the detail for SW England. and while some of the detail for SW England is not quite the same, it gives at least a decent estimate, and it is a good summary of the last NAE. The first NAE chart covering Tuesday morning is now out. At this stage, there is a WNW flow, with an unusually cold wedge of air associated with it. Thickness Levels [850/1000HPa], around 1290m-1300m for most. http://www.weatheron...=1&PERIOD=&WMO= Thickness Levels [500/1000HPa], around 518-524HPa ( S Wales) http://www.weatheron...=1&PERIOD=&WMO= Dewpoints ranging from around 0c South Coast to -2c North Coast. http://www.weatheron...=0&WMO=&PERIOD= 850Hpa, Temps -6c to -7c generally http://expert-images...0506_2_0306.gif Rain/Snowfall chart, certainly the chance of some snow. http://expert-images...0506_2_0306.gif Precipitation amounts are always variable in such situations. http://expert-images...0506_2_0306.gif 2m Temps ranging from 3c to 6c. http://expert-images...0506_2_0306.gif In this situation at least early on Tuesday we are in a very cold wedge of air, and this makes snowfall/wintriness more likely than would normally be in the case in a WNW airflow and with air temps above freezing. Late on Tuesday, a wedge of less cold air will push in from the north, before a NNW flow sets in early on Wednesday, with cold uppers and thicknesses, however these are not likely to be as cold as suggested for early Tuesday. It will be interesting to see if there are warnings issued from the Met Office as always that will give an indication as their thoughts with access to more detailed models than we have. Monday: Mostly dry with most places seeing some sunshine. Chance of a few showers in the far west at times. Becoming increasingly windy, [/size] [size=3]especially around western coasts and across the moors. Maximum Temperature 9 °C.[/size] [size=3]Outlook for Tuesday to Thursday Strong winds and widespread wintry showers continuing on Tuesday and Wednesday, although Thursday may be a quieter, brighter day. [/size] [size=3]Feeling bitterly cold, especially as winds turn northwesterly then northerly.[/size] While the snowfall potential does not appear as great for SW England, certainly the chance wintry/snow showers quite widespread.

Having had another look at Tuesday, I'm seeing more of a downgrade now. However, this post is more based from a IMBY point of view and I wasn't exactly in the firing line for anything anyway. The MetO current update doesn't offer much developing until later in the day, so maybe that is the timescale to concentrate on. Firstly the Fax Chart at 00 UTC Tuesday 5th February Okay, this won't necessarily pick up any showery activity at such a timeframe but there also isn't much currently showing anyway. The good thing is that should something develop during Monday evening, the 528DAM line is well South, so things will largely be conducive for snowfall. Moving onto the 12 UTC Tuesday 5th February Now this second chart is more promising. Should the Occluded Front depicted as lying across Central Ireland at midday, trundle Southwards and arrive in our region during the overnight period, then yes, a much better scenario would develop. So without further a do, let's have a look at the current thinking from the MetO for the 00 UTC Wednesday 6th February Fax Chart. If taken on face value, that Front moves through too quickly and we need the reload of COLDER UPPERS from the North to over-run it. Perhaps it is for this reason that the MetO will not commit to anything other than wintriness at this stage. Having said all of the above, to my eyes, two timeframes are vital as these will largely have to coincide with the coldest snow-making air profiles as mentioned by Jackone, Coast and AWD etc. The Fax charts will clearly NOT TELL THE WHOLE STORY. For the best opportunity of SNOWFALL production, I would be on radar watch for trough activity from areas such as Ireland on the Monday for the timeframe 2100GMT to 0300GMT. Currently, for the second event, the timeframe to radar watch has to be similar to that of the day before, if not into the early hours of Wednesday 6th February. A whole lot to keep tabs on over the coming few days and last minute DOWNGRADES and UPGRADES are highly probably IMHO.

Obviously you can't at the moment, but you want to move that forward by some 6 to 18 hours and I think it will GAME ON for a lot of us. The NAE must try harder, come on, don't let us down.

No problem. I think we're all largely sitting on my fence and quite rightly so, if anything I may be over-egging things at this stage, time will tell of course. If this were a game, in terms of expectancy of SNOW, so far it's Jackone and gottolovethisweather - 2 AWD and Mark Parsons - 2 according to my match analysis Anyway, enough of this, I'm off out for a beer and chinese around my mate's house.

I guess a wintry mix is the safest bet, yes. But I think it will swing towards higher chances of SNOW as we get nearer the timeframe.

Quite rightly, if taken at face value you could easily say it might end up another "close but no cigar" scenario. However, to me those charts spell fantastic potential due to the timing of the system (if verifying) complete with plenty of nocturnal cooling and absolutely nothing wrong Dewpoint wise. I am not providing any hint of IMBYism either as I'll accept whatever turns out to the case. I think in this circumstance Mark, we'll beg to differ. Besides as time ticks on, I suppose wintry mix scenarios are more likely than not, so with that in mind, you might end up correct.

What if anything could possibly go wrong? With the MetO on board, against the consistent signal provided by the GFS over recent days for Tuesday 5th February event. Wales, SW & CSE regional SNOW risk charts from the GFS 12z. Tuesday 5th February 6am Tuesday 5th February 12pm Tuesday 5th February 6pm Associated Dewpoints, courtesy of the GFS 12z. Tuesday 5th February 6am Tuesday 5th February 12pm Tuesday 5th February 6pm For now though, we best wait for the NMM and NAE outputs as we approach the event.

You're not called Active Weather Dude for no reason then.

I think, due to our location from a global perspective, we are always going to be on the cusp of something potentially brutally cold. As an example, just take a look at what happened across Central Europe last February, mega snow depths and indeed brutally cold in places too. We have been spoiled over recent years in terms of colder spells but I feel in this day and age, that is all they will really end up being, a spell. The extreme case coming in December 2010 to which all folk will relate, not alwayys with regard to its snowfall either. Many folk's views in the MOD thread are enshrined in too much hype and expectancy these days but you cannot really blame them when you think of recent history. With regard to the future of this year's winter, I expect more SNOW and I expect some chilly days next week. By the time we get to 10th February, it truly could go either way. March snow doesn't float many people's boats but that month certainly delivered for me back in 2005, with 16 consecutive days of snow seen falling from late February into early March. I always hope for something special but the reality is often the nearest of near misses and I believe that is best way to play things in this weather game. You have been warned, the 12z's are a-rolling.

I just thought this was worthy of inclusion in here, as copied from the MOD thread, courtesy of fergieweather. To paraphrase our very latest from the duty Medium Range Forecaster: "....Recent ensembles have mostly NW types at first but with an increase of westerly types into the trend (10-15d) period... (and) more signs of a recovery of temperatures for most areas." and also. UKMO view remains consistent. They've just issued new 6-15d analysis based on 00z output. Essentially cold / periodic snow / ultimate battleground set-up (latter developing Fri & with easterly push of uncertain scope continuing through to Monday). Into 10-15d period, Exeter continue story with MOGREPS-15 & DECIDER products showing strong NW/W influence with varying degrees of cyclonicity. Their conclusion is for the cold/wintry phase next week to be short-lived, through to about following Monday; the trend 10-15 d period then characterised by return to average or slightly below average temperatures. Thus, a consistent story from them over last 3 days in this regard, i.e. no real expectation of a *prolonged* cold spell of any note. Hope this helps.

Certainly looks right but it shows quite a leap from t+72 to get to t+96, feasible or not? However after RJS's post yesterday evening, folks will be at risk of overanalysing that particular timeframe. Looks another half decent ECM run for us coldies once again to be fair.

It was in mine, issued on the 30th January @ 22:59.