gottolovethisweather

Very good AWD, not a bad resume from just a brief summary. The section I have highlighted from your post above explains things very well indeed IMHO. As to where we ideally want to see this depression placed, the margin of error is little more than a couple of hundred miles either East or West and (North or South) as you suggest. If folks now think of where our little island is situated in regards to all of this, you can truly see why things will chop and change to within probably t+12 hours. Also note that all the matters to which AWD mentions have to fall in place before this yet undeveloped surface feature even comes our way. Then there's the pertinent matter of who gets SNOW and how much does or doesn't fall.

Speaking of Cornwall and our region in general, check out the attached Fax Chart. Bear in mind, there are only eleven (11) surface features to keep track off at this range from a Northern Hemisphere perspective. It sure looks a difficult forecasting situation upcoming.

Edit: if it can snow over Dorsetbred's head then we should all take this as a huge positive. I am not tempted to type Newquay into the forecasting box just yet, but Cornwall is in with its best shout for snowfall this winter it seems. If you Cornwall residents are brave enough, go ahead. http://www.netweathe...tion=10day;sess=

And just to prove I am not in the slightest bit anti-Poole. The attached comes courtesy of the latest netweather forecast for said location. In fact, what a beautiful part of the world it is in places such as Arne and those Dorset heaths.

Purely intended for Dorsetbred, who is the most negative positive member of the Poole snow-watching faternity.

Does anybody think this thread is developing into a rather silly mode of late, not that it had anything to do with me you understand. Seriously, good to see even at this range that the MetO thoughts are broadly similar to mine right now. This taken from my post last evening. However, from the 11th February onwards, more especially the 12th through to the 14th February are dates to keep in mind for a much higher likelihood of SNOW in almost any of the aforementioned counties of England. Let us hope the momentum can continue for another six to ten runs, not really much to ask, is it.

Yes, away from the coast, it will now be SNOW.

I want things in their correct season Thank you. Snow in Winter and then a nice warm, dry and at times convective Spring come Spring proper.

I can just see the youngest member's faces now when the SNOW gets taken away at <t+6 hours

Along with the rest of us children.

Mull, the future is still uncertain as it is only the forecast modelling suggesting such things. If you care to look at my attempted forecast yesterday, I think you will see things remain broadly the same, at least in the next five to six days. Come the 12z suites however, I am expecting an upgrade of sorts and then there is tonight's little episode to keep tabs on. To me, you make things sound like the future is the actual outcome rather than the predicted outcome. Sorry but AWD, Coast and myself etc. only try to guide us all as to what MAY happen. Don't take this post as getting at Mullender only, it could be aimed at 90% of the posters within the netweather forums.

Yes please.

PINK is for girls, I say. Whatever the future holds, we must enjoy it one way or the other, I just hope I don't ever get to see pink snow.

Before I depart for the night,. I feel it is worth reposting the link to Gibby's analysis of how the model suites should be viewed. Some very wise words indeed. It is all too easy to get lost in interpretating what you want from the Charts, rather than what the reality is actually showing. Bear in mind though, even then it can and will go wrong within very short timescales. http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/75819-south-westcentral-southern-england-regional-discussion-030213-12z/page__st__440#entry2588834

Hello fellow CSE and SW'ers. Five days can be a long time in Meteorology, so from my post on the 1st February to now, are we any further forward to knowing what's in store for the rest of this month. On my previous posting it was suggested that FI was around the 7th to 8th February timeframe which gave us at best, approximately 6 to 7 days of predictability in terms of a forecast. What was the reality I wonder? If you recall, here were my key dates in my forecast. Firstly for Dorset, having edited the summary accodingly. Key timeframes were suggested as 3rd February for a low impact RAIN event, with the period from the 5th February into 6th February looking a decent shout for a SNOWIER INTERLUDE. Even further out, say the 13th February onwards, it hints at a good deal wetter scenario than the preceding ten days or so. Basically it was a bust, even under a short-term scenario and furthermore the same was said of the predictions for Berkshire which were as follows. The trend for Berkshire showed the 4th February as a low impact RAIN event, with the slim probability of backedge snowfall and then the 8th February looking a reasonable shout for a SNOWIER INTERLUDE. Intriguingly you could possibly rescue the 8th February from the above prediction but we are really clutching at straws I guess. Anyhow, let's move on and have a look at the future. Again, I will attempt a forecast based on some analysis of the GEFS ensembles suite. I will once again be using the 12z suite in isolation. Here is how the GEFS 12z ensembles saw things developing in terms of precipitation for Berkshire and Dorset some five days ago. On to today, how does the GEFS 12z ensembles view things in terms of developing precipitation for Berkshire and Dorset. To this I will also add Cornwall. Please follow the MEAN (red line) in order to see the overall trend expected and in turn to help pick out specific dates over the given timeframe. Where the CONTROL (blue line) consistently differs from the MEAN you can regard such timeframes as currently unreliable, i.e. Fantasy Island. What can we establish from the above? The trend deciphered from the above would indicate an unsettled period upcoming for all. The wettest part of our region likely to be the furthest SW locations within the UK. As ever, there will be drier interludes, to which I will allude to later. I will now look into any discernable trends coming from the Upper Air profiles. Once again looking back at Berkshire, Dorset and instead of Cornwall, I am using Berlin as an example. Firstly the situation expected some five days ago. Berkshire, Dorset and Berlin T850s And as of today, to which I can add Cornwall T850s to the mix. Please follow the MEAN (red line) in order to see the overall trend expected and in turn to help pick out specific dates over the given timeframe. Where the CONTROL (blue line) consistently differs from the MEAN you can regard such timeframes as currently unreliable, i.e. Fantasy Island. What you can you decipher from this is a hint as to whether the precipitation will be wintry in nature and more especially, SNOW producing. From the above, I would suggest the period from the 8th February to the 14th February as being a watching episode at this range. Cornwall should expect many showery interludes during the earlier part of the above timeframe. The downside for coldies being the ensembles suggest a largely too warm profile (bar significant elevation) for now. As for Berkshire and Dorset, things don't look as wet as first suggested and when the precipitation spikes are shown, the precipition signal in terms of anything wintry will be marginal at first. However, the interest grows as we enter the timeframe 11th February to the 14th February and probably beyond. The reason Berlin T850s were included was to look for any developing Easterly signal. At this range and the timescale concerned is beyond FI, I do believe there are reasonably strong signs of a continental type flow developing from the 14th February onwards and possibly earlier by a day or so. Of course, this will need to push further Westwards in time for this region to benefit from such an event, but there is hope that such a thing could occur IMHO. Finally we will see if there are any signs of a drying out taking place in the longer-term by looking at the Air Pressure trend shown, firstly from five days ago Berkshire and Dorset Air Pressure, to which I will add Reyjavic (Iceland) and Oslo (Norway) And as of today for Berkshire, Dorset, Cornwall and also using further afield locations as Reyjavic (Iceland) and Oslo (Norway). to 22nd February 2013.png] Having said what I stated earlier, you can pretty much write off a High Pressure related scenario taking place until at least 14th February. The trend is for Cornwall to be the wettest of the selected counties with 8th, 10th, 11th, 13th and 14th February looking likely to suffer showery/frontal type precipitation events. Of particular interest to us coldies, the period from the 8th to the 10th February suggest high levels of marginality when it comes to predicting SNOW at the surface. However, from the 11th February onwards, more especially the 12th through to the 14th February are dates to keep in mind for a much higher likelihood of SNOW in almost any of the aforementioned counties of England. The reason for using Reyjavic (Iceland) and Oslo (Norway) ensembles was to identify as possible trend for a Pressure build in that region, North of the British Isles. At the moment, these appear to favour a Scandinavian blocking type scenario come Mid February. If this does come off, AWD will be very pleased - see below for his comment as of the 31st January. cold mid February from the east/north east/north still looking good, still my long range punt. How cold and if it will be accompanied on snowfall remains to be seen. My guess at the stage is not mega cold but easily cold enough for snow, which we will see at some point being closer to the Euro trough. My best bet, largely in line with AWD's initial thoughts is for a Scandinavian blocking to take hold from around the 12th February. This subsequently linking up or losing its identity in favour of a more general Greenland type blocking, come the last ten days or so of February. Whilst saying all the above, it has to be stressed that there is very little cross-model suite agreement at less than t+96 right now, which firmly places Fantasy Island at no later than the 10th February. I hope the above is of use and folks, keep tuned for many more updates from the usual suspects in the coming days. Still a whole lot to play for with this winter, bar the usual locations which the residents will know about which will most likely experience a unforecasted heatwave.

Indeed and another way of seeing things with my "glass half full" approach is that without the marginality that we currently have, we would otherwise be in a really boring zonal setup. Eh, no thank you. Time will tell of course, but chances are that we are still on the cusp of something good happening before time truly runs out.

And you too sir, had SNOW yesterday, did you not? The brevity of the SNOW and the fact that it doesn't lay for long doesn't help matters but one should be grateful, given the number of winters we both have seen snow failure.

Perhaps you should rephrase that. FWIW, I didn't either, but I can always look back on my 8 days of consecutive snowcover with much happiness, even if it all goes pete tong from hereon in.

Judging by this, I think you will find there are a few chances of upcoming snowy spells during the next 7 days. http://www.netweathe...tion=10day;sess= Check out your own patch, for your particular details. To be fair, the marginality of each situation would be the only bone of contention, I guess but time is cracking on too.

Indeed.

That is only part of the story, it can still SNOW at 4c or above but Temperature is not the only factor to which we should be looking at. Actually, thinking about it, I have known SNOW to fall from showers at about 8c. Right now it is 3.6c and the Dew point is 2.4c, some precipitation is moving Southwards currently which could end up of a wintry nature, come 8am to 9am.

That's what I saw, nothing. However, I don't agree with this habitual lying, it's not on. http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/75819-south-westcentral-southern-england-regional-discussion-030213-12z/page__st__220#entry2586100 Evidence of no SNOW.

Sounds good. I imagine it would be a good opportunity for a qualified ringer to get involved, afterall I feel its the least us humans can do after causing such distress to the critters in the first place. The reality is that we don't know much about these precious birds in the first place. That is, where they migrate to and their feeding practices etc. When it comes to conservation of nature, I believe we all have a responsibility to look after it, as afterall, we are part of it. Anyway, I'm ranting now so I best go for a lie down. Take care all.

Well, the GFS 18z suggests some patchy wintriness and possible SNOW tomorrow during passage of the Front to which I referred to earlier. http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/75819-south-westcentral-southern-england-regional-discussion-030213-12z/page__st__360#entry2587793 It appears to cover parts due West and East. For those with access to the Fax Charts, it still shows up on there. To my eyes, the next 12 hours or so could yet be of interest.

For the record, a recent posting was deleted for obvious reasons, however I would like to state that I largely agreed with the sentiments. Perhaps we might wish to add a few politicians, bankers and other low-lifes to that list too. Whilst I agree with many sentiments within this thread concerning an important topic of a non weather-related theme, I do have to keep this place broadly on-topic and polite at all times. Thankyou kindly and if we can return to the regional discussion for now. I don't mind the occasional off-topic post as most will appreciate such matters of dying seabirds as discussion point of interest and a lot of us are also nature lovers at heart. Many Thanks Your kind-hearted moderator gottolovethisweather